Historic meeting of the misters

FT-PresXi

An astute Tweet that flashed before me yesterday pointed out that the meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping and Ma Ying-jeou is a not a China-Taiwan affair, but a CCP-KMT one. Unless they have suddenly acquired new capacity for nuance and finesse, the Beijing leaders’ calculation must be pretty simplistic. Give the KMT leader face, thus filling Taiwanese voters’ hearts with admiration for his party’s ability to induce some magnanimity and good vibes out of the mighty PRC government, therefore reducing support for the opposition and independence-minded DPP. So, indirectly, it is the DPP that Beijing is flattering, or respectful/fearful of.

Still, much of the media yearn to see the Chinese leadership as warm and cuddly deep down, so they describe the photo-op as ‘historic’ and (to quote the FT headline) as a ‘gesture’ – implying thoughtfulness, concern for others, kindness and similar sentiments so dear to the Communist psychology.

This matters to us in Hong Kong because, in order to get what it really wants, Beijing has to make some sort of concession toward the Taiwanese masses who don’t want to be run by a cruel and corrupt dictatorship. It has to convince them that some sort of closer cross-straits constitutional arrangement in the future will not threaten their freedom and democracy. Xi cannot do this simply by dangling trade privileges or an infestation of tourists in front of Taiwan’s tycoons; he has to find a way to guarantee continued pluralism in the island under a ‘One China’ formula. If he could manage to do that, it would imply that Beijing could also find a way to accommodate Hong Kong’s own desire for freedom and self-rule.

Obviously, the Communist one-party state can’t/won’t. Dream on.

The China-watchers and tealeaf-readers are having tremendous fun with the symbolism and nomenclature – which are the nearest to any substance the Xi-Ma mister-on-mister chat will produce. China’s media tend to delicately refer to the two as ‘leaders’ of ‘sides’. There is even a hint of a concession by Beijing here, as that wording does not preclude the theoretical possibility of the ‘sides’ being equal or equivalent, though obviously it doesn’t include it either. Perhaps it’s OK because Ma has replaced his forebear Lee Teng-hui’s ‘state-to-state’ description with a ‘special non-state-to-state’ tag (at which point the most hardened semanticist throws up his hands and wails ‘get a life!’).

TWN-stew

What will be on the menu as they dine together? Tropical fruit or the multi-regional hybrid stewy things that bubble away in night-markets are presumably out, being too suggestive of a Taiwan that is distant from the Mainland or has developed a distinct and more sophisticated and advanced form of Chinese culture. Similarly, they will have to avoid the spicy lamb and steamed breads of Xi’s home Shaanxi Province, as well as the intestine soups and noodles so reminiscent of One China’s capital city. As they will be in Singapore, maybe they can have a curry.

SCMP-Misters

As the South China Morning Post blurts out, Xi’s palling around with Ma can only be the kiss of death for the KMT in Taiwan’s forthcoming elections. If DPP leader Tsai Ing-wen needs to further remind her people of the stark choice between Beijing’s embrace and maintenance of a free society, she just needs to point to the gradually unraveling fate of present-day Hong Kong.

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9 Responses to Historic meeting of the misters

  1. inspired says:

    my thoughts on the meeding are well summed up in the last paragraph.

  2. inspired says:

    bah, my thoughts on the meeting… typo… good luck to the KMT in the next elections unless they have something special planned in the meantime

  3. PD says:

    While I would like to think that everything Peking touches turns to dust, in East Asian political cultures, foreigner-hating, bribery, intimidation and brute force often get you a long way. No other method could have kept a lid on the mainland even this long.

    It of course takes two to tango. To a certain extent, HK and Taiwan share this tradition of appeasement, of running away, of kowtowing, of sucking up, of scapegoating, of general spinelessness.

    So the only proof that Xi’s tightening of the neck screws, and with it rule by jackboot and the barrel of a gun in general, are ineffective would be for the CP to lose power.

  4. Nimby says:

    In some of the on-line chats in Taiwan, take is less about elections and more that Ma hopes to end-run Lian as Taiwan’s man in Beijing and establish his own “trust” fund independent of the KMT central funds, which he’ll soon lose control over. Ma is going to be in retirement, and in a move similar to Bill Clinton’s retirement scam trust combines with Japanese style back-room politics, Ma wants to create a vehicle to post retirement power. Ma hopes that by replacing Lian as a rain-maker with Beijing, he’ll get in money from Taiwan corporations who want problems in China resolved and money funneled from the CCP to affect Taiwan politics. This seed-money he can then use to become a power-broker behind the scene in Taiwan which will lead to more “rain-making” opportunities, which will lead to more even more money and power in a non-virtuous cycle. Anyway, that’s one of the many wild theories out there.

  5. PCC says:

    It’s a big climbdown on the part of the CCP. They know they’ve screwed the pooch on Taiwan reunification for at least a generation because of the Hong Kong cluster fuck, and they’re anxious to prevent Taiwan from shooting them in the back during the big South China Sea clambake.

  6. Knownot says:

    A little history (from ‘Modern China’ by Graham Hutchings).

    In July and August 1995, China carried out missile tests and military manoeuvres opposite Taiwan to destabilize the island’s economy and weaken the President, Lee Teng-hui, who they didn’t like.

    During the presidential elections in March 1996, the PLA test-fired missiles into the sea close to Keelung and Kaohsiung harbours, and carried out protracted military manoeuvres. Both the economy and people in general were shaken, but –

    Lee won the election by a landslide.

  7. Knownot says:

    the most hardened semanticist throws up his hands and wails ‘get a life!’

    In the 1980s people used to talk about the NICs, the Newly Industrialised Countries: South Korea, Taiwan, HK, and Singapore. Chinese semanticists pointed out that two of them were not countries, and it should be Newly Industrialised Economies.

  8. Chinese Netizen says:

    Newly Industrialised Former Vassal States, perhaps?

  9. Nimby says:

    http://solidaritytw.tumblr.com/post/132729352471/todays-meeting-really-set-me-at-ease-ill?is_related_post=1

    Change missiles to the “Sun Yi On inside the ICAC/Police” and this could fit Xi Dada talking about Hong Kong.

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