Big Lychee, Various Sectors

In April, a 22-year-old waiter was charged with sedition. Prosecutors now seek to increase the charge to inciting subversion. Specifically that he…

…incited others to “organise, plan, commit or participate in… overthrowing the body of central power of the People’s Republic of China or the body of power of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.”

How? Through posts on Twitter and Instagram.

And a 15-year-old is among four people arrested for allegedly conspiring to subvert state power as part of a group founded in Taiwan last November…

Police … found “a proposal urging the US to draft a plan for the rescue of political prisoners in Hong Kong, as well as flags that signify the secession of the country, including those for the independence of Hong Kong, Tibet, Guangdong, and Xinjiang,” [NatSec Police chief Steve] Li said in Cantonese.

In February, the organisation held an online press conference in Taipei, during which its members outlined the group’s action plan, including the “obliteration” of the Chinese Communist Party and the “liberation” of Hong Kong, he said.

It’s called the Hong Kong Democratic Independence Union. Never heard of it…

The group’s Facebook page had 76 followers and was last updated on Tuesday, according to an HKFP search at 5pm on Thursday.

The Standard has pix of their flags…

Li described the alleged offenses as “extremely serious,” carrying a maximum penalty of life imprisonment, and highlighted that the youngest arrestee is only aged 15.

“[He] was not even 10 years old during ‘black violence’ (2019 social unrest). Why would these people participate? In addition to the influence of incitement, I believe the responsibility falls heavily on parents.”

He urged parents to monitor their children’s social circles and online activities, emphasizing that acts endangering national security will be severely punished.

Brian Hioe of New Bloom looks at the story from a Taiwan angle…

Examining the presumed social media presence of the group, one notes that it has less than 100 likes on Facebook and abbreviates the name of “Hong Kong Democratic Independence Union” as “DIU,” a Cantonese curse word. Following the arrests, the organization claims that it will keep on fighting.

One notes that the group mostly seems to consist of very young individuals. Furthermore, the claim that individuals between the ages of 15 to 47 were part of the organization is unusual, in that this would mean that a seemingly unserious organization had members who were three times the age of other members. The group styles itself as a political party and lists the names of members, as well as displaying their photos.

…Hong Kong authorities have claimed that the arrests show how the impact of the 2019 protests continues to affect a young generation of Hongkongers more than six years later. At the same time, it generally appears that the Hong Kong government is seeking to target a group of unserious kids while framing it as a serious act of terrorism.

Inter-Press Service article on ‘the silencing of Hong Kong’…

Joshua Wong sits in a maximum-security prison cell, knowing the Hong Kong authorities are determined to silence him forever. On 6 June, police arrived at Stanley Prison bringing fresh charges that could see the high-profile democracy campaigner imprisoned for life. This is the reality of Hong Kong: even when behind bars, activists can be considered too dangerous ever to be freed.

…Last year, the Hong Kong authorities gave themselves still more powers to suppress dissent by passing another law, the Safeguarding National Security Ordinance. Already, police have used the new law to arrest over 300 people, including for such trivial offences as wearing T-shirts with protest slogans.

From NYT via (for some reason) the Deccan Herald – Chinese police detain writers of ‘Boy’s Love’ erotic fiction…

The graduate student in southern China wrote the romance novel in her spare time, self-publishing it online. In 75 chapters, it followed two male protagonists through a love affair that included, at times, steamy sexual encounters. It earned her less than $400, from readers who paid to access it.

Now, it could bring her a criminal conviction. 

Across China, authorities have been interrogating dozens of writers — many of them young women — who published gay erotic novels online, in what appears to be the largest police roundup of its kind to be the largest police roundup of its kind to date.

…As the genre grew more popular, state media began to denounce it as “vulgar,” claiming that the gay storylines could distort young readers’ sexual orientations.

Maybe they should rename it ‘Zombie Boy’s Love’.

For lovers of ham – cartoon of the week.

The SCMP reports that Hong Kong might use Mainland construction standards for a future rail project…

A new arrangement for building a major rail link in Hong Kong’s Northern Metropolis mega development can reduce costs by up to 40 per cent through leveraging mainland China’s lower wages and construction standards, lawmakers have said.

Well, so long as we’re just going to ‘leverage’ them, that’ll be fine.

…[Lawmaker Michael] Tien said he believed that authorities could reduce costs by 20 per cent from the HK$70 billion if they opted to use mainland construction standards, with a further 20 per cent savings achievable if they adopted cross-border wage practices.

…Authorities have also proposed adopting mainland standards and construction methods for the project, which would reduce costs.

Tien noted that the Hong Kong standards were “unrealistically high”, which would complicate the construction process.

“This would mean longer construction time and higher costs,” he said. “Hong Kong will need to change its standard eventually, as we cannot afford the current standard. First, it takes too long. Second, it is unnecessarily ultra safe.”

Industry leaders have previously told the Post that the city could adopt mainland standards for construction materials, rather than use European benchmarks, to help reduce building costs that are the highest in Asia.

Tien also said he believed that the new arrangement on the construction of the railway would meet the demand of Xia, the director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office, to speed up the development of the Northern Metropolis, as the project would be completed sooner than originally planned.

Three types of integration going on here. First is the perceived need to speed up a project to please a senior Beijing official. Nothing wrong with trying to meet deadlines, but…

Second is the potential to cut costs by using Mainland standards. I’m not an expert in construction methods. Maybe current ones are ‘unnecessarily ultra safe’. (This could be applied to all sorts of things, like medical practitioners’ qualifications, water quality, pollution controls, food safety, etc.)

Third is the adoption of ‘cross-border wage practices’, which presumably means paying significantly lower Mainland wages. No-one talks about this much, but if Hong Kong landlords have to accept that restaurants need lower rents to remain competitive with Shenzhen outlets, it follows that workers’ pay might need to come down as well. What else can integration mean?

From HKFP – the government plans to make it illegal to use someone else’s SIM card…

Selling or buying, leasing or renting, lending or borrowing, and supplying or acquiring a SIM card already registered with someone’s personal information will also be illegal.

The authorities are also seeking to criminalise possession of a SIM card with another person’s information, unless done with reasonable cause or excuse.

Someone who possesses 10 or more SIM cards registered with another person’s information will be presumed to have the intent to use those cards to “commit a crime or facilitate the commission of a crime.”

And to think that just a few years ago you didn’t even need to register any personal details.

Bloomberg reports that the HK Jockey Club is selling US$1 billion worth of Blackstone and other private equity funds. (When a Bloomberg article says ‘$’, it means ‘US$’, right?) Many sovereign and private investors have been ditching US holdings in order to reduce exposure to Donald Trump’s whacko trade and economic policies. But why is the Jockey Club sitting on such huge wealth in the first place? It has a monopoly of legal betting in Hong Kong and could be seen as an extension of Hong Kong’s own sovereign wealth fund-type reserves. But in return for the monopoly, it is supposed to subsidize welfare expenditure.

Maybe it can’t find enough good causes to finance. Single parents have no problems feeding and clothing their kids. Elderly poor people’s teeth are fine. The homeless love the fresh air.

The Guardian on Hong Kong’s ever-so-reluctant recognition of gay marriage…

“Any protection is better than none. But the proposal, as it stands, falls well short of providing the full and equal recognition that all couples and families deserve,” [advocacy group Hong Kong Marriage Equality] said, and raised specific concern over the “unfair” requirement that eligible couples must be registered in another country.

“We’d be in this peculiar situation where in order to enjoy a right we’d need to go through this extra step of having a relationship recognised overseas first, which is contingent on the sovereignty of another nation,” the group’s co-founder Jerome Yau told the Guardian.

…Nevertheless the legislator Holden Chow told a committee discussion on Thursday that while his pro-Beijing DAB party opposed discrimination, they felt the proposed system threatened Hong Kong’s traditional family values, RTHK reported.

“Textbooks would then need to teach the next generation that Hong Kong allows the registration of same-sex marriages,” Chow said.

The pro-Beijing legislator Priscilla Leung called it a “dark day” for traditional values, and warned against Hong Kong following “the so-called LGBTQ trend” of other countries, calling on the government to ask to courts for a deadline extension.

Holden Chow still around? Jeez.

Following the adoption of Mainland standards for legislative bodies, is it ‘unnecessarily ultra safe’ to use the phrase ‘pro-Beijing’ when describing Hong Kong lawmakers?

Today’s guest star (here if you missed it) is a rapper. Ultra unusual, but the God of Henan’s Factory video is outstanding. More info.

The Hong Kong government unveils a cunning plan to fight illegal drugs…

Hong Kong plans to rename the drug “space oil” in a bid to reduce its appeal, security chief Chris Tang has said.

Speaking at an anti-drug event on Sunday, Tang said that the authorities would soon give the illegal narcotic a new name because “space oil” glamorises the drug.

…At the Sunday event, the security chief likened the appearance of space oil users to “zombies” and said the government would make an official announcement on the new name soon.

During a meeting with lawmakers last month, Tang suggested calling the substance “zombie oil” to better reflect its effects on users.

…In February, the government renamed “space oil” as “space oil drug” to clarify “its nature as a dangerous drug and its harmful effects.”

…In March, lawmakers proposed setting up a reporting mechanism to flag space oil sellers, but Commissioner for Narcotics Kesson Lee said the authorities had no plans for a hotline, as young people were too “rebellious” for such a system to function well.

Used as an anaesthetic – and in some executions in the US – it is popular among youngsters in Hong Kong and Singapore who add the liquid to e-cigarettes to get an instant and extremely brief sort of high.

But will officially renaming it work? Do bureaucrats even have the power over language to move a population to adopt new wording for things? Back in the 1970s, they tried calling a new MTR station ‘Chater’, before giving up and going with the already accepted ‘Central’. More recently, they (for some reason) listened to complaints from a few residents who felt their district was being tarnished with the name of a seedy area in London, and decreed that Soho would henceforth be known as the ‘Mid-Levels Themed Dining and Restaurant Zone’ (or something of that clunkiness). 

But maybe decreeing new nomenclature would be easier in Kowloon and the New Territories.

Could it work the other way round? Could you make something more popular by changing its name? Rather than call it a ‘government policy’, call it a ‘happy fun idea’.

Civil society isn’t exactly what it used to be in Hong Kong, but the state-owned press are still not satisfied. Environmental NGOs Liber and Greenpeace come under fire in Wen Wei Po for ‘soft resistance’…

…through its policy recommendations for Hong Kong’s ecotourism initiatives.

The paper ran a full-page report on Tuesday, accusing the NGO of using “pseudo-science” to challenge the bottom line of national security.

The report also named Greenpeace Hong Kong, which co-hosted a seminar event on ecotourism with Liber and other environmental groups online last month after a local university cancelled their venue booking.

According to the Wen Wei Po report, Liber “has been using pseudo-science as ‘camouflage’ to spread untruthful comments to vilify the government.”

…Addressing the “soft resistance” accusation, Wong said: “We are just conducting research and making suggestions for the benefit of Hong Kong’s people and environment.”

Is Wen Wei Po upset that the NGOs found government ‘happy fun ideas’ for eco-tourism might allow developers to build housing on sensitive sites? Is the paper angry that the groups went ahead with their forum online, after Chinese U cancelled the venue? Are they running out of targets? Or do they see alternative proposals as a challenge to state power?

Would it hurt if bureaucrats sat down and read through Liber’s papers, and maybe even considered amending plans if the think-tank identifies room for improvement in government initiatives? Would that help enhance governance – or does listening to outside opinions threaten national security?

In the SCMP, a fascinating semantic and logical conundrum about who has the right to ‘own’ celebrations for the 80th anniversary of China’s victory over Japan in World War II. (Put aside debate about: 1) whether China ‘defeated’ Japan, which surrendered only after the US dropped two atom bombs; and 2) the role of the CCP versus the KMT-run ROC forces in the war against Japan.)

Beijing is organizing a grand parade, and is inviting world leaders and others – including retired KMT/ROC officials from Taiwan. The Taiwan government is threatening these people with fines and loss of pensions if they go…

The move has reignited long-standing tensions over Taiwan’s identity, the ownership of ROC history, and the reluctance of Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to fully embrace the ROC’s historical roots in mainland China.

Critics accused the administration of honouring the ROC’s wartime triumph without acknowledging its mainland roots before 1949.

The SCMP’s wording, reflecting its pro-Beijing editorial position, isn’t helping here. It’s not that the DPP is ‘reluctant’ to embrace the ROC’s roots in the Mainland; it knows full well where the ROC came from. It is reluctant to embrace the idea that the ROC has existed in practice in Taiwan ever since the KMT dictatorship gave way to democracy in the 1980s. To the DPP ideologically, the KMT-run ROC was simply the colonizing regime that replaced Japan and moved its administration to Taipei after losing the Chinese civil war (suppressing uprisings among what Western press called ‘Formosans’). Despite KMT efforts to Sinicize the population in the 1950s-70s, the ROC is not a source of identity for many Taiwanese who trace their roots back to 17th Century settlers from Fujian.

But of course it’s more complicated. The ROC is still the official name of the country/island/entity, and provides the state, military and other trappings, including the flag. And the KMT is very much part of modern Taiwan’s identity as one of the main political parties, and as a patron of former soldiers and other groups, including criminal gangs.

It gets even more confusing when a DPP administration – rather than shrug off China and WWII as other people’s business – tries to claim the mantle of the ROC as a way to score points against both the KMT and Beijing…

KMT legislator Ma Wen-chun accused the Lai government of neglecting the ROC’s history… “If the DPP has discarded ROC history, can it blame Beijing for claiming it?” Ma asked. “If the ROC won the war, we should mark it with pride – not passively let others write that narrative.”

What does he mean by ‘we’? Taiwanese whose ancestors left China during the Ming dynasty and were later handed to Japan by Manchus (and quite possibly served in the Japanese forces in the war)?  Bear in mind this is the SCMP’s choice of sources to quote – no DPP people.

…[Academic] Ho Chih-yung slammed the DPP for wanting “the moral authority of the anti-Japanese legacy without acknowledging the ROC that fought the war”.

“The ROC flag and military traditions are only honoured when it is politically convenient,” he said.

[Academic] James Yifan Chen warned that Lai’s reluctance to hold a more formal commemoration might allow Beijing to dominate the historical discourse.

“Neither the DPP nor the Communist Party led the ROC’s war effort,” he said. “It was the ROC under Chiang Kai-shek that defeated Japan. 

Find anyone in this story who is not involved in historical revisionism.

RTHK reports on two veterans who visited Chinese naval ships passing through Hong Kong last week…

The Chinese naval fleet docked in Hong Kong for a five-day port visit has welcomed two former anti-Japanese guerrilla fighters, as the veterans onboard a warship hailed the country’s military advancement.

Lam Chun and Law King-fai, both in their 90s, made a trip to the Ngong Shuen Chau Barracks on Stonecutters Island and the destroyer Zhanjiang on Saturday.

They were once part of the Dongjiang Column, a guerrilla force fighting the Japanese during the Second World War.

“We have now witnessed the warships making concrete advances, defending our motherland,” Lam said.

“They are not here to be involved in battles, but to protect ourselves, so that we can continue with our development.”

Law, for his part, recalled going to war in wooden boats back in the day, saying the country’s naval vessels and weapons have changed and developed rapidly throughout the years.

The sprightly pair are described as being in their 90s. The average surviving WWII veteran in most countries is now 100, but maybe the East River Column had some younger members. 

To me, the most impressive resistance fighters must be these teenage Dutch girls…

The Oversteegens and Schaft also killed German soldiers, with Freddie being the first of the girls to kill a soldier by shooting him while riding her bicycle. They also lured soldiers to the woods under the pretense of a romantic overture and then killed them. Oversteegen would approach the soldiers in taverns and bars and ask them to “go for a stroll” in the forest.

The Dalai Lama was 90 years old on Sunday. China File interviews several experts on how his successor will be chosen. Isabel Hilton…

His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama has firmly assigned the sole authority in the search and identification of his next incarnation to the Gaden Phodrang, his own office based in Dharamshala in northern India…

The Chinese foreign ministry’s response was from a familiar script: The final authority on all matters to do with reincarnation lies exclusively with China’s central government. In other words: The Dalai Lama has no right to lay down the conditions of his next rebirth. And not only has the Dalai Lama no right not to be reborn, according to Beijing, he has no say in where and how he will return. I sometimes imagine that I hear hollow laughter ringing out from the grave of one Karl Marx in Highgate Cemetery, in London, a short walk away from where I am writing this.

A chatty Bloomberg ‘weekend essay’ tries to paint a rosy picture of a Hong Kong that is poised to thrive once more…  

As a global city, Hong Kong is starting to resemble the place it was before the drama of the protests and years of Covid controls.

Expats, including some of those who fled for Singapore during Covid, are beginning to return. (Covid Zero is temporary, I joked to people thinking of leaving back in 2022; Singapore is for life.) In conversations with businesspeople, the national security law rarely comes up. If I mention it, most of them tell me it’s made little difference to their life. There are other pressing issues, such as plunging retail sales, the trade war and how to beat scalpers when buying tickets for visiting star acts.

The focus is now on Hong Kong’s future — from stability to prosperity, as the official slogan goes. How the city has evolved is still too risky a topic for public discussion, which prevents people from working through the trauma of 2019 and the pandemic.

That silence could become Hong Kong’s next liability. To function effectively as an international finance center, people need to feel that they can speak freely about even controversial subjects. Critics of government policy risk being accused of engaging in so-called soft resistance. Whether the city’s more peaceful era will allow greater openness remains to be seen.

What is clear is that while the city has changed, it has not been transformed by the national security law. It still acts as the vital go-between for the West and China. And the humor, pragmatism and hard work of the Hong Kong people, which has characterized the city for me over the decades, continues.

NatSec has not transformed Hong Kong, yet some topics are now ‘too risky for public discussion’. Do Chinese or Western businesses or officials see, let alone use, the city as a ‘vital go-between’? Does Beijing want an ‘international’ financial centre here, or just a convenient Chinese-but-offshore one?

Perhaps someone at Bloomberg thought it would be judicious to publish a vaguely positive piece on Hong Kong, maybe in the hope of pleasing local or Beijing authorities who might dislike the company’s coverage of topics like debt-ridden property developers. If so, it is unlikely to succeed: local officials expect full-blown agreement with the line that the city’s new style of governance is an improvement, and that a permanent and increasing emphasis on patriotism and national security is essential. 

Which brings us to some stories from the last few days…

From HKFP – lawmakers could have their pay docked for criticizing – or ‘vilifying’ – the government.

The US Consulate is having problems finding venues for public events, like pro-democracy groups before they disbanded.

An interview with Baroness Hale, who was appointed as one of Hong Kong’s Court of Final Appeal part-timers before quitting as she felt the city’s rule of law was being undermined…

I am now all the more convinced that it was the right thing to do because, as things have developed, the National Security Law has taken over the Basic Law. Even though the foreign judges are not likely to be asked to sit on national security cases, they are being asked to give respectability to a system that despite the best efforts, I’m sure, of people I know in Hong Kong … they are not going to succeed.

The case where Tim Owen was not allowed to represent Jimmy Lai—probably it wouldn’t have done any good any way—but nevertheless that was a case of Beijing’s interference with a decision in which the Hong Kong court had said yes he could act, and Beijing said no. So you don’t want to be part of a system like that, you just don’t. I feel very sorry for them, very sorry.

One of the rare occasions a former senior judge actually says something, and indeed even pats herself on the back. For example, on a particular written ruling: ‘I did not say anything that the others weren’t saying, but I just said it in a much shorter way. Again this is an example of my judgments that young people like…’

Unimpressed by her hip-with-the kids credentials, the Hong Kong government issues the inevitable angry press release…

A spokesman of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) Government today (July 4) said that the statement made by the former non-permanent judge of the Court of Final Appeal (CFA), Brenda Hale, on the Hong Kong National Security Law (HKNSL) and the rule of law and independent judicial power in Hong Kong is far from the truth, particularly her assertion that the so-called “the National Security Law has taken over the Basic Law” is absolutely incorrect and contrary to the facts.

July 1 marked 28 years since the handover of Hong Kong. But the Big Event this year was the fifth anniversary of Beijing’s National Security Law in the city, which officials are celebrating with posters, banners, speeches and various ceremonies. International media have also noticed.

AP on the continuing pressure on small businesses with supposedly pro-democracy leanings…

It’s been years since mass arrests all but silenced pro-democracy activism in Hong Kong. But a crackdown on dissent in the semiautonomous Chinese city is still expanding, hitting restaurants, bookstores and other small businesses.

Shops and eateries owned by people once associated with the largely subdued pro-democracy movement are feeling a tightening grip through increased official inspections, anonymous complaint letters and other regulatory checks.

…Leticia Wong, a former pro-democracy district councilor who now runs a bookstore, says her shop is frequently visited by food and hygiene inspectors, the fire department or other authorities over complaints about issues like hosting events without a license. It happens most often around June 4, the anniversary of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.

Her records show government authorities took measures against her shop some 92 times between July 2022 and June 2025, including inspecting her shop, conspicuously patrolling outside, or sending letters warning her of violations. She has been studying regulations to protect herself from accidentally breaking them.

…the fire department said it conducted checks at Wong’s business following multiple complaints this year. Wong’s bookstore passed most of them but still faces enforcement action for failing to provide valid certificates for two fire extinguishers and its emergency lighting system, it said.

The Diplomat …

The crackdown on “Reversed Front: Bonfire” resembles earlier efforts to suppress the freedom of expression, such as the banning of children’s books that allegorically depicted wolves (representing the Chinese Communist Party) invading sheep villages (symbolizing Hong Kong). In both cases, metaphor and fiction are treated as threats to national security.

These actions suggest an increasingly brittle government that responds to children’s books, digital games, and foreign holidays with legal threats and censorship. The fear of the authorities around the Fourth of July reveals their increasing insecurities around Hong Kongers setting off their own fireworks in response to the increasing crackdown on their human rights. 

…Looking ahead, there is another troubling implication: if holidays like the Fourth of July are now suspect, others such as Christmas and Easter may be next, given that they present narratives inconsistent with the official ideology of the Chinese Communist Party.

Also from the Diplomat, a piece on the folding of Hong Kong’s last opposition group…

In the span of five years, the city’s opposition has been steadily and deliberately dismantled. Laws have been rewritten, activists jailed, accounts frozen, and spaces for dissent shut down. As Hong Kong’s last lawful pro-democracy group, the LSD was known for its protests, defense of civil liberties, and push for social equity. Its departure has brought an era of public dissent to a close. 

Index on Censorship…

Speaking to someone on the ground in Hong Kong, who wished to remain anonymous on security grounds, they said that there’s rarely a month that goes by when they “don’t discuss leaving with loved ones”. 

“Whether it’s t-shirts, a song, a mobile game, books, a newspaper op-ed [opinion piece] or a social media post expressing dissatisfaction with the government, the crackdown on anything deemed seditious only seems to escalate month by month.”

The Hong Kong government is mightily miffed and issues a classic angry press release…

The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) Government today (June 30) strongly condemned and opposed the malicious attacks on and the demonisation of the Hong Kong National Security Law (HKNSL) and other laws safeguarding national security, as well as the slanderous and fact-distorting remarks made on the HKSAR’s work in safeguarding national security by foreign politicians, anti-China organisations, and various media outlets on the important occasion of the fifth anniversary of the promulgation and implementation of the HKNSL.

A spokesman for the HKSAR Government pointed out, “These anti-China and destabilising forces, organisations or media have made sweepingly generalised and grandstanding comments, completely disregarding the profound historical significance of the HKNSL and its undeniable positive impact on the HKSAR. They distorted the facts and made slanderous remarks on the HKSAR and the HKNSL. They even attempted to interfere with criminal trials conducted in HKSAR courts, thereby obstructing the course of justice…

The government also proposes restrictions on visits to prison inmates, including by lawyers and chaplains…

…to “meet the needs of safeguarding national security and modern correctional institution management,”

An interesting graphic – countries with the fewest children. Hong Kong has emigration. But developed East Asia as a whole ticks all the other boxes: high-pressure education systems, small homes, and societies that make life tough for women who have both careers and children.

The next 30 or so countries on the list are mostly in Europe.

On Taiwan matters, Aspi Strategist on how to really get Beijing angry…

In a speech kicking off his ‘10 Talks on the Country’ series on 22 June, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te declared that Taiwan ‘is of course a country’, citing its democratic system and separate history, and Beijing’s lack of jurisdiction over the island. It was one of his clearest affirmations yet of Taiwan’s national identity: not a call for change, but a statement of present-day fact.

Beijing reacted with fury. Its Taiwan Affairs Office condemned Lai’s remarks as a ‘declaration of Taiwan independence’ filled with ‘heresies’, accusing him of inciting separatism and ‘leading Taiwan toward war’. Chinese state media warned that such speeches would be ‘swept into the rubbish heap of history’, and added that Lai’s inflammatory remarks disregarded the strong desire of the Taiwanese public for peace.

…all this overlooks something deeper: Taiwan cannot make a unilateral declaration of independence—not because it lacks the will, capacity, or public mandate, but because the entire concept is a Beijing talking point.

Global Times gets sorely vexed about Lai’s first-of-10 speech.

In response to Taiwan regional leader Lai Ching-te’s first so-called “10 Talks on the Country” speech, Chen Binhua, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, issued a strong rebuke, stating that Lai’s remarks were filled with lies and deception, hostility and provocation, and his distortions of history, reality, and legal principles will only be swept into the dustbin of history.

Chen noted that the speech deliberately distorted and fragmented history, aggressively promoted separatist “Taiwan independence” fallacies, and attempted to fabricate a theoretical basis for “Taiwan independence” in order to justify his political agenda, including advancing a so-called “mass recall” campaign for personal political gain. 

The speech was a blatant “Taiwan independence manifesto,” inciting confrontation across the Straits, and was also a patchwork of deeply flawed and misguided separatist rhetoric, which fully exposed Lai’s obstinate nature as a die-hard “Taiwan independence” advocate, said Chen.

‘Soft resistance’ is to the Hong Kong authorities what ‘woke’ is to the MAGA/Fox News brigade – a mortal threat, even though no-one knows what it is. The Chief Executive is adamant that it exists…

Speaking during a weekly press conference on Tuesday, the chief executive said that “soft resistance is definitely here” and “it is lurking across different areas and different sectors.”

“Some are even disguised as righteous-sounding causes, but in fact, they carry an intention to endanger national security or commit destructive soft resistance,” Lee said in Cantonese.

…In recent days, in the lead-up to the fifth anniversary of the Beijing-imposed national security law next week, high-ranking officials have given media interviews addressing “soft resistance” in areas ranging from arts and culture to development and medicine.

…Lee said: “Of course, criticism of the government… is allowed in our society, as long as you do not have bad intentions… But we should not isolate things, because when we connect the dots, you know it could be part of a scheme of soft resistance.”

It’s everywhere. Rummage around those dusty neglected sectors you have lying around at home – and there it is, lurking. 

It seems every policy bureau head must have an interview with Wen Wei Po warning of the terror. Now it’s the turn of Secretary for Development Bernadette Linn…

Linn said the Development Bureau must “think from the national security perspective” in its work and make “timely clarifications” when misunderstandings about the government’s development plans arise.

She cited the San Tin Technopole development plan, which has drawn concerns from environmental groups over its impact on what they described as the largest remaining intact coastal wetland ecosystem in the Greater Bay Area.

The tech hub’s planning zone, which was expanded in May 2023 to over 600 hectares, involves wetlands, and thus the project would “easily provoke opposition” from environmentalists, Linn said.

“The process of development may easily stir up different emotions and opposition. Some objections are reasonable, some arise from misunderstandings, and some are deliberately manufactured with ill intent. We have to handle it carefully,” the minister said.

Linn went on to say that reclamation development in the city was often met with “soft resistance,” citing the amendment to the Protection of the Harbour Ordinance, which was passed by the city’s opposition-free legislature last month.

For fans of tea leaf-reading, Willy Wo-Lap Lam on Xi Jinping’s waning power, as inferred by reduced coverage in official media…

In the PRC’s most important diplomatic mission this year, Xi apparently failed to demonstrate strong leadership. Following negotiations with the Trump administration in Geneva on May 11–12 and then in London on June 10–11, neither Xi’s name nor Xi Jinping Thought was mentioned in comments from either the Foreign Ministry, the Commerce Ministry, or Vice-Premier He Lifeng (何立峰)—a close Xi ally and lead negotiator with the Americans

Commonplace magazine offers a useful ‘GDP and the trade deficit for dummies’

Rather than markets driving investment, China sets its annual GDP target every year and meets it by any investments necessary through government direction and intervention. This often means investment happens regardless of domestic demand and regardless of whether the underlying investments are profitable. In recent years, China has directed much of this investment toward supporting its export industries.

China’s model has allowed it to capture a larger world market share in several key industries, while the United States’ model has fueled unprecedented levels of household consumption. While these outcomes may serve the political objectives of leaders in both nations, neither model is sustainable and their benefits to the larger population of each nation remain questionable.

…trade deficits have created a drag on overall U.S. economic growth, which has failed to reach 3% since 2005 (with the exception of the government-spending-fueled COVID recovery in 2021). Of the growth the United States has seen, much has been sustained through consumption fueled by government deficit spending and loss of general wealth. To pay for the $1 trillion in goods it doesn’t produce, the United States must either issue debt or sell off assets. 

…Indirectly, the U.S. trade deficit has contributed to the $36 trillion national debt as political demand for consumption has outpaced private sector growth’s ability to sustain it for much of the middle class. That debt will continue to be a drag on GDP as interest payments continue to grow as a percentage of overall spending.

…If consumption in China represents only 39% of GDP versus 68% in the United States, and investment 41% of GDP in China versus only 18% in the United States, it is clear that China directs more of its economy toward production at the expense of consumers and households. This concentrates more power in the hands of the Chinese Communist Party and prevents the formation of a middle class in China capable of asserting its economic interests.

I’m off to Korea to get away from all the soft resistance lurking in our midst. Back in a week or so.

The recent visit of Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office boss Xia Baolong seems to have prompted a flurry of interviews with senior Hong Kong officials in Wen Wei Po stressing their devotion to perpetual NatSec. The latest is Secretary for Environment Tse Chin-wan, who warns that the government will not grant funds to ‘non-patriotic’ NGOs. And at the same time, Greenpeace has to hold an eco-tourism forum online after Chinese U decides the physical venue needs ‘urgent maintenance’ – like a restaurant cancelling a Democratic Party dinner.

Playwright Candace Chong responds to the Culture Secretary’s warnings about ‘soft resistance’ in performance content, song lyrics, and storylines…

Chong wrote: “Breaking the law is breaking the law. You can prosecute someone suspected of breaking the law. [But] looking for soft resistance, that would become an operation to disturb people.

“Because your staff at every level will scrutinise us under a microscope, as [they] want to please their superiors or they are just afraid of making mistakes… how many innocent people and pieces of work would be wronged?”

The 48-year-old playwright also asked: “And will I be classified as ‘soft resistance’ for honestly sharing my opinions?”

A pro-Beijing veteran attempts to clarify…

Hong Kong should remain vigilant against the threat of “soft resistance,” but authorities are unlikely to “wrongfully accuse” individuals, according to Tam Yiu-chung, vice-president of the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies.

Speaking on a radio program on Monday, Tam said he supports reducing funding for groups involved in soft resistance but believes the government will act with caution and fairness.

“I don’t think the government would recklessly wrong anyone,” Tam said, adding that any action should consider the background, intent, and impact of the groups involved.

Tam emphasized that while soft resistance is not a pressing problem in Hong Kong, society must stay alert.

…On the question of whether satire or criticism of the government constitutes soft resistance, Tam said it depends on the intent and degree.

The Chief Secretary announces commemorative events for the 80th anniversary of victory in ‘the Chinese People’s War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War’. After occupying Manchuria in 1931, Japan launched a full-scale invasion in 1937, so plain ‘World War II’ has never fully reflected China’s part in the 20th Century’s biggest conflict. But it will be interesting to see how (or whether) the authorities’ official history of the era refers to the government and forces of the Republic of China, and the role of the Western allies in forcing the Japanese to surrender in September 1945. And whether the occasion involves gratuitous anti-Japanese sentiment.

New Zealand’s The Post blasts judge Sir William Young for taking a non-permanent position on Hong Kong’s Court of Final Appeal, and demands he stand down…

China promised the people of Hong Kong that their freedoms would continue when it took over the British colony in 1997. Gradually and then aggressively, it has gone back on its word. Now a distinguished New Zealander has accepted a highly controversial posting working with this regime.

Once one of Asia’s freest places, Hong Kong is now a dangerous place to disagree in any way with the Chinese Communist Party. A vague and sweeping National Security Law imposed five years ago has criminalised dissent. Today, the city holds more than 800 political prisoners behind bars. Hong Kongers have been jailed for wearing a T-shirt that the authorities don’t like and for refusing to stand respectfully enough for the national anthem.

…In Hong Kong, the National Security Law has done away with trial by jury, replacing it with a panel of hand-picked judges: a violation of a promise China made in the city’s mini constitution. Defendants are typically denied bail, again despite constitutional promises that bail arrangements would remain unchanged from the British period. Ironically, foreign barristers, long a feature of Hong Kong’s legal scene, are denied in National Security Law cases. Foreign judges are fine, but lawyers acting for the defence are not.

It’s a disgrace that Judge Young is now working in a jurisdiction controlled by such a repressive government after his long and distinguished service in New Zealand. He should resign before the country is tainted by his participation.

Writing in the SCMP, Regina Ip sees…

Hong Kong … at risk of splitting up into two economies. On one end, Hong Kong’s financial, professional and business services are being revived on the back of China’s resurgent, tech-driven economy and the shifting balance of power between Washington and Beijing.

…Hong Kong’s stock market is positioned in the right place at the right time. As tariff chaos and policy flip-flops erode the US’ credibility and moral standing, China has emerged as an oasis of certainty in an increasingly volatile and dangerous world.

…Hong Kong’s consumer services data tell a totally different story. In April, Hong Kong’s retail sales dropped for a 14th consecutive month. Local restaurant receipts dipped in the first quarter of this year, with total receipts by value falling by 0.6 per cent.

…The economic integration of Hong Kong with [nearby cities]  has contributed to a divergence between the local economy and the city’s internationally connected sectors.

The improvement of cross-boundary transport … has practically turned Hong Kong and nearby mainland cities into a single market. The free movement of people from Hong Kong and the much better value-for-money offered by services in neighbouring cities have seriously dented local demand for consumer services.

I’ve cut quite a few paras of thinly disguised pro-China/anti-US stuff on financial services because it is, at best, unnecessary background in a column supposedly focusing on the potentially interesting ‘splitting into two economies’ theme. As a result, Reg has little space left to propose solutions. A pity – because this is a real issue that probably adds to Hong Kong’s economic inequality. 

She says…

Chinese restaurants cannot compete with their counterparts on the mainland on price or variety. There is not much the government can do to prop up these ailing sectors except to allow market forces to produce new demand for more attractive offerings. Even consumption vouchers … would only have a short-term effect. The best hope for resuscitating Hong Kong’s local consumer services lies in price adjustments and innovation.

…However, it will be a long and painful process if markets are left to regain competitiveness solely based on price adjustment. New products, service delivery innovation and the creative redesign of shopping malls are key to offering greater customer satisfaction.

As a former career civil servant, she knows little about how to run a business, so it’s no surprise that we get no more on what sort of ‘innovation’ might be needed. My weekly ‘mall hike’ yesterday was at Airside, near Kowloon City. This is perhaps a glimpse into a more locally-oriented retail future. In this case, aimed at the people of the new Kai Tak development area: a slightly odd sort of community, heavy on dogs, kids, middle-aged folk – many of them Mainlanders, of the resident rather than tourist variety. Sort of Disco Bay, but high-density and looped with unwalkable freeways, and with more Mandarin.

If the developers ever had hopes of attracting high-rent-paying luxury brand outlets, they seem to have given in gracefully. The mall includes a cinema, a CitySuper, a Muji, tons of dog accessories, kids’ clothes and amusements, plenty of pop-up stalls, flashy but unexciting food outlets and some amusing household goods places.

Reg’s last sentence addresses what government can do…

Government planners cannot rely on old models. They must work with business to be bold and forward-looking, or else Hong Kong will be left behind.

This could have been a slightly-exciting climax to the piece, urging officials to ditch their obsessions with tourists and high property prices. Why not tax empty properties, to speed up the adjustment? But the word-count is up.

Not that I read many these days, but this looks like a case study in SCMP op-eds: a promising subject, a huge up-front chunk of pointless irrelevant background, and voila – no space left for what might have been some original or provocative ideas. Presumably, the structure suits both contributors and editors.

What are senior officials looking at? Culture etc Secretary Rosanna Law aims to fight ‘soft resistance’ wherever it might appear. …

Hong Kong will strictly vet applications for event subsidies and performance venues, as well as exhibition content and library collections, to better safeguard national security, the city’s culture minister has said.

Hong Kong is still facing threats from “soft resistance,” which may take the form of performance content, song lyrics, and storylines, Secretary for Culture, Sports and Tourism Rosanna Law said in an interview with Beijing-backed newspaper Wen Wei Po published on Friday.

Law said the authorities must “remain vigilant” at all times and that safeguarding national security was an “ongoing process.”

“There is no completion, only continuation. We must continue to take national security work seriously and carry it out diligently,” the minister said.

The Culture, Sports and Tourism Bureau has stepped up training for its personnel to “deepen their sense of national awareness,” Law said. The bureau also vowed strict vetting of event subsidies, venue performances, exhibition content, and library collections to “eliminate any elements that may harm national security,” she added.

And the Chief Secretary also suggests NatSec will go on and on…

Chief Secretary Eric Chan said on Sunday that safeguarding national security is always an ongoing process.

He stressed that the SAR government will keep improving the legal system to construct systemic safeguards for long-term peace and stability.

NSL rap, anyone? If you didn’t hate rap already…

Bloomberg looks at how the Hong Kong government rolls out the welcome mat for online influencers who promote the city and counter Western media’s perceived bias…

“Influencers, from Hong Kong’s perspective, allow [officials] to circumvent traditional media gatekeepers,” said Arun Sudhaman, a PR industry analyst and founding editor at Earned First. “There is weariness in Hong Kong government circles about international media, and this gives them a way to try and get their message out.”

(Weariness or wariness? Both, probably.)

Despite the positive publicity generated by [comedian Jimmy O] Yang’s tours of Hong Kong, it was the government’s unprecedented use of national security laws to ban a mobile game earlier this month that generated headlines across global media. From the government’s perspective, the game was a seditious attempt by its Taiwan-based developers to promote secessionism. Yet others might see the intervention as further evidence of shrinking civil freedoms amid national security concerns. Just this week, Hong Kong’s education chief warned of the risks of “soft resistance” infiltrating schools through book fairs.

Either way, these aren’t subjects co-opted influencers are likely to delve into on their social media platforms. And this means they are lower risk from a public relations perspective, said Sudhaman, who previously spent more than four decades in Hong Kong.

To him, the government’s increasing use of influencers is more tactical than strategic.

“This approach, once again, demonstrates that Hong Kong is treating its reputation issues as a communications problem rather than addressing whatever the broader policy concerns or broader reputation concerns might be,” Sudhaman said.

As its press statements make clear, the Hong Kong authorities see PR in terms of shrilly insisting it is right and critics are wrong (despicable, etc). There’s probably little else they can do, assuming patriotism and NatSec – and anti-Westernism – are non-negotiable. But while ‘influencers’ might sell a positive view of the city, their millions of teenage viewers are probably not the international political and business leaders who our officials would most like to convince. They’re targetting an easy but not very fruitful audience.

Some audiences closer to home aren’t getting the message: anti-government vandalism breaks out in the New Territories.

Joel Chan follows up on his chart on changes in employment by age group by looking at the stats since 2018 and comparing the change in the size of the age groups, both in employment and overall. This is quite extreme…

The number of over-65s has risen by 38.5% overall, while those in work have gone up an incredible 64.3%. The number of 20-24-year-olds fell a whopping 45.3%, while those in work declined 27.1%; 25-29s fell 25.7% and 19.5% respectively. The elderly are booming and working like never before, while the young are vanishing.