Big Lychee, Various Sectors

The HK government releases the report on the Wang Fuk Court fire. Some quite interesting details about the way companies colluded in bidding. But of course everyone knew that was going on. Only after 163 people die do officials decide to take action. Bid-rigging might now become a crime.

HKFP stories here and here. Housing Secretary Winnie Ho, whose underlings called ahead to tell contractors they were coming for an inspection, has resigned. Is anyone going to prison?

The Too Simple substack looks at Western YouTubers and other influencers doing their thing in Xinjiang…

 One thing Randisi doesn’t mention is that this trip was organised and funded by the Communist Party of China. 

…Their tour is being run by the regional branch of the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC), aka the CPC Bureau responsible for “content management” and “censorship” of the internet. It is the architect behind China’s “Great Firewall”. Last month, a local CAC meeting, while discussing propaganda efforts, declared: “The internet should be the front line of ideological work.” 

The Diplomat on China’s economy…

China today has the lowest consumption rate of any major economy in the world – in fact, its consumption rate is lower than any major economy in the past 100 years. 

Consumption makes up just about 56 percent of China’s GDP. In most economies, it’s 70 percent or more. To put this in perspective, China’s consumption as a share of GDP is about 10 percentage points lower than Japan’s was in the 1990s, at the worst point in its economic stagnation. 

Why does low consumption matter? Because it’s a flashing warning sign that China’s economic model is fundamentally broken. That’s why GDP growth is coming to a screeching halt, dropping from highs of 10 percent or more in the early 2000s to under 5 percent today. It’s also why China’s debt is growing to alarming levels.

And this is not just a problem for China. Low consumption in China means its people aren’t buying all that much – but China can’t scale back production without mass layoffs. So what does China do with all the extra stuff? It exports more and more abroad, at lower and lower prices. 

It comes with a (rather AI-laden) video. A deeper treatment is in this interview with George Magnus, in which he discusses his book Peak China: The Battle for Global Economic Supremacy. He writes a very quick summary in the Guardian.

For map fans, an overlay of the Normandy D-Day landings on top of Eastern China and Taiwan.

HKFP reports that Legislative Council members are getting a pay hike. Not a big one, at 1.6%. But it brings their basic pay to HK$110,000 a month. (They also get various allowances, notably one that covers the cost of maintaining an office with several assistants.)

In 2021, Beijing overhauled the electoral system for the legislature, expanding it to 90 seats. Most traditional opposition figures remain in prison, have left politics, or have fled into self-imposed exile. 

Earlier in October, Rita Fan, the first president of Hong Kong’s legislature after the 1997 Handover, said on RTHK that it was costing too much to sustain 90 lawmakers in the Legislative Council, citing the opinions of “a friend.” 

Under the all-patriots system, key legislative roles – such as asking ministers awkward questions and threatening to withhold funding – are in effect no more. No-one has ever explained why more lawmakers were necessary when they all have essentially identical pro-government views.

Rita Fan has friends?

Also in HKFP – the government says two towers of roughly 45 and 55 floors on the Hung Hom waterfront will not block views, including of Lion Rock. But look at how many of Hong Kong’s tallest buildings are those right up close to the harbour. They pretty much make money by taking everyone else’s ridgeline/sea view and selling it to the highest bidder. Unless the Hung Hom structures are going to be invisible.

What do the rats think?

Reaching the parts other national security laws can’t reach: the government ‘embeds’ NatSec education in kindergartens…

The Secretary for Security, Mr Tang Ping-keung, and the Under Secretary for Education, Dr Sze Chun-fai, jointly officiated at the launch ceremony. Mr Tang shared the creative concept, saying that an illustration-driven book supplemented with an engaging storyline enables children to discover and learn the meaning of following rules and thinking critically, so that they can understand the importance of safeguarding national security from an early age…

The three-volume set of picture books is set against the backdrop of “Andy and Security Bear”, the national security comic series launched by the SB in mid-2024 that has been well received by the education sector and students. The set consists of three new stories accompanied by resources including themed children’s songs, enabling teachers to make learning enjoyable in kindergartens.

The SB also released “Singing Softly”, a children’s song launched alongside the first volume of the picture book. Kindergarten students attending the event performed it on the spot. Through movements, the students brought the lively and easy-to-understand lyrics to life and reinforced their understanding of the positive values in the story, including respecting others and safeguarding their home. 

Note that the Secretary for Security formerly known as Chris lacks his English name here. Is this just an RTHK translation thing, or is it going to become de rigueur for officials to drop the foreign influence?

Patrick Poon in Cha Journal compares three women to one another in less than 1,000 words…

Few would think to place the British writer Virginia Woolf, the Chinese writer Eileen Chang, and Chow Hang-tung, the Hong Kong barrister and Vice-Chairperson of the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China, side by side. Yet I believe the values each of them pursued throughout her life are ones they hold in common. 

In the Wire China Michael Kovrig reviews a Safeguard Defenders book on China’s ‘black jails’…

…new first-person accounts of both PRC and foreign citizens abducted by the Chinese Communist Party’s security apparatus under a sinister procedure it calls zhiding jusuo jianshi juzhu 指定居所监视居住 or zhiju 指居 for short. The official English translation is “Residential Surveillance at a Designated Location” (RSDL), a bland bureaucratic mouthful that deliberately masks pre-arrest detention in a secret facility where your tormentors subject you to appalling abuse and your only right is to obey. 

Lingua Sinica piece on how the downfall of Victor Orban also means the downfall of Chinese state media influence in Hungary…

This kind of media cooperation is political, not commercial. It does not relate to the media market. It has a political reason and a political goal. It is a tool for diplomacy. The Chinese side itself stresses that this cooperation runs under the “personal care and guidance” of the leaders from both countries, which tells you how political this is. These deals are part of bilateral diplomacy — but it also means that they are not run professionally, because a European state broadcaster having to cooperate with Chinese state media is not really a normal, professional agreement. 

An interesting Twitter post analyzing People’s Daily reports of top Chinese leaders’ oration over the years. Nowadays, 60-80% of Xi Jinping’s speeches are described as ‘important’, while few other Politburo members’ are. Indeed, few others seem to make even unimportant speeches.

A Taipei Times op-ed looks at the use of ‘Formosa’ vs ‘Taiwan’ through the ages. (It mentions the name ‘Formosa’ entering Western headlines ‘after 1949’. Western news coverage of the Taiwanese revolt against the KMT/ROC’s occupation of the island earlier after WW2 referred to the ‘Formosan uprising’. A plug here for the 1948 book Formosa Calling by Allan J Shackleton.)

Out of action tomorrow, as I’m going to see a nice young lady on the 80-somethingth floor of IFC. She is my personal banking blah blah, and will offer me well-intentioned financial advice while I gently remind her that I’ve been investing since before she was born. When I last saw her she sat horrified as I explained why the Nvidia and other AI players were all propping up each other’s massive overvaluations and the whole bubble would burst at some point. The lure is that she will waive commissions on certain rather boring funds. Plus great coffee. And an incredible view.

The UK issues its latest six-monthly report on Hong Kong. 

The Hong Kong authorities seek to dismiss it as worthless and irrelevant, yet lavish a sizable press statement on it…

The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) strongly condemns and must resolutely refute the untruthful remarks, slanders and smears against various aspects of the HKSAR in the so-called six-monthly report on Hong Kong: January to June 2026 of the United Kingdom (UK) today (October 23). 

…A spokesman for the HKSAR Government said, “…The general election for the eighth term LegCo was successfully held at the end of last year. Voters actively cast their votes, returning a new cohort of LegCo members who are patriotic and love Hong Kong, responsible, capable and committed to serving the community. This has once again exemplified the high-quality and healthy competition under the new electoral system, embodying broad representation and balanced participation. The improved LegCo has proven in practice that this is a democratic electoral system that suits HKSAR’s actual circumstances and needs.”

Many gigantic and medium-sized paragraphs follow. Stats show that the phrase ‘so-called’ appears 13 times.

Free! No extra charge! Another one from ‘a spokesperson for LegCo’…

A Diplomat piece on the reasons behind Beijing’s fears of gay rights activity…

…LGBTQ public life in Hong Kong is being narrowed through administrative and institutional means rather than formal criminal prohibition. Consensual same-sex conduct remains legal, and LGBTQ organizations continue to exist. But these groups find it harder and harder to organize publicly, retain venues, sustain institutions, and remain visible in civic life.

This is striking because Hong Kong once had one of the most visible LGBTQ communities in East Asia…

The same pattern is visible in mainland China…

…Foreign connections have become increasingly important to this repression. Chinese authorities often treat independent organizations with international ties as possible channels of foreign influence. LGBTQ groups are especially exposed because contemporary sexual minority advocacy is highly transnational, involving foreign NGOs, embassies, academic institutions, cultural organizations, and legal networks. This allows questions of private identity and social equality to be reframed as questions of sovereignty and political security. 

…China’s control increasingly travels through people, platforms, and language communities. Whether joining a cultural space in Paris, a platform in Taiwan, a Pride parade in Bangkok, or a community organization in North America, Chinese citizens and Chinese-language communities remain exposed to censorship, surveillance, or coercive pressure originating from inside China. 

Desmond Shum, who has some expertise in the preservation of family wealth, on Beijing’s recent tax crackdown…

The recent bloodbath in Hong Kong’s stock market has an all-too-familiar suspected culprit: the Chinese government.

Ninety days ago, Beijing announced a 20% tax on certain offshore trust income, potentially reaching back many years. With an October 22 declaration deadline, wealthy families facing unexpected tax bills have been scrambling to raise cash, selling shares, borrowing against holdings and dismantling offshore trusts, according to Reuters. I have little doubt this forced selling has contributed to the market rout.

…Over the past fourteen years, the Party has tightened its control over private enterprises, subordinated commercial interests to political priorities and eroded the predictability essential to preserving wealth across generations.

Xi did not invent this vulnerability. It is deeply embedded in the CCP’s history and political structure. The reform era merely encouraged entrepreneurs to believe that the rules had permanently changed.

The latest offshore trust tax crackdown is another reminder of how misplaced that confidence was.

He also addresses the issue here…

For China’s wealth owners, four measures matter most:

• The Supervision Law (2018; revised 2024) — transformed the risk to personal liberty.

• The Counter-Espionage Law (2023) — vastly expanded the boundaries of “national security.”

• The new offshore trust tax rules (July 2026) — fundamentally changed the calculation of wealth protection.

• The new Exit-Entry Regulations (August 2026) — strengthened the state’s control over mobility and the ability to leave. 

How do you be patriotic and boost the tourism sector at the same time? China Media Project adds ‘Red Tourism’ to its dictionary. While it has a clear ideological function, encouraging leisure travel to remote spots on the Long March route provides an economic boost to poorer regions…

“Red tourism” has helped cultivate and maintain this national [‘patriotic education’] vision as subsequent leaders have pushed forward economic development and modernization, while also bringing business and development to “old revolutionary areas,” many of which were rural and poor. Local governments have poured hundreds of millions of yuan into these projects, which involve not only the construction of museums, monuments, and heritage sites, but also the development of tourism infrastructure including roads, hotels, and ample public transportation. 

It’s a money-spinner! Why hasn’t Hong Kong thought of this? Stop chopping down trees to create more inane light shows – launch the new ‘National Security Tour’: visit the old HQ of the newspaper that was shuttered for collusion with foreign powers; walk along the same streets where the CIA paid a million ‘black hands’ to overthrow the motherland; enjoy an ice cream at the park where thousands of people tried to subvert state power every year; buy a T-shirt denouncing seditious incitement at the closed-down bookstore. As the article quotes People’s Daily… 

Red tourism is both a conceptual innovation and an industrial innovation. The development of red tourism will help explore a virtuous cycle in which, under the socialist market economy, social benefits and economic benefits are well integrated, spiritual wealth is transformed into social wealth. Together, they are of benefit to the society and the people. 

First the vehicle registry, now land records…

The Hong Kong Journalists Association (HKJA) called on authorities on Wednesday to shelve amendments to land registration regulations that could restrict media access to land records – a public database vital for news reporting in a city where property is a pillar of the economy. 

…Currently, there are no restrictions on who may access the land records and searchers do not need to provide supporting documents. Members of the public only need to declare compliance with the city’s privacy laws to search for records.

The new rules state that searches can only be conducted for nine purposes deemed legitimate for accessing records, including academic and market research.

News reporting is not among the nine specified purposes, although “public interest” is listed as a valid ground. However, any application will be vetted by the Land Registrar on a case-by-case basis.

These are public databases – there are no obvious reasons why the information should not be free for anyone to see. And since checking land records is essential to any property transaction, it is not even possible to restrict access. The official explanation for the change is ‘privacy’. But whose privacy, and why? Why should anyone wish to hide vehicle or land ownership? More to the point: why is news reporting missing from the list of ‘legitimate’ purposes for searches?

Numberwang provides an in-depth explainer on the Election Committee Subsector Election…

…of the 4,116,965 registered electors in Hong Kong, fewer than 0.084% of the electorate has an individual vote in next month’s election.

And back on the topic of access to information…

The names of the 5,894 corporate entities who are eligible to vote are publicly available, but not online. But to view them you must make an appointment with the Registration and Electoral Office for a 90-minute inspection session at its Cheung Sha Wan or Kwun Tong office. 

Stick around for the role played by ping pong balls.

The weirdest part of this highly convoluted system is that it’s all pretty much irrelevant. The next Chief Executive will be decided in Beijing, and members of the ‘all-patriots’ legislature are all screened to the extent that they might as well be hand-picked. And with 99.9% of the electorate not taking part, the process does little to confer legitimacy.

An SCMP op-ed offers a dash of ‘soft resistance’ on the subject of the Tai Po fire inquiry…

We also learned just how far our systems have fallen short in protecting Hongkongers’ lives and property. Even in the early days after the blaze, questions were raised over how the overlapping systems designed to avert disasters like the Wang Fuk Court inferno had failed. 

…it has emerged that the fire alarm system did not function as it should have. While arrests have been made in the disaster’s aftermath, there is much more to uncover after widespread systemic failures that span construction, property management and government oversight came to light. 

Beyond the substandard materials used and the disabled fire alarms, there are the regulatory loopholes and the long-standing issues of bid-rigging and industry corruption. These problems have long been known, but they keep returning to haunt us after being swept under the carpet. 

…It was distressing to hear Secretary for the Civil Service Ingrid Yeung Ho Poi-yan say recently that the government might not make the commission’s investigation report fully public over privacy and confidentiality concerns. Surely redactions, if done properly, could address those concerns. 

It’s hard to miss the corruption and other illegalities in Hong Kong’s construction/building maintenance sector these days. Missing rebar at the Anderson Road ‘starter homes’ project in Kwun Tong. More missing rebar at the One Stanley luxury villas. Shoddily installed lifts at Queen Mary Hospital. Failure to install fire-safe elevator door frames in no fewer than 338 buildings.

Maybe we need a well-resourced muck-raking newspaper, or some outspoken democratically elected lawmakers, or a free civil society in which residents can organize and protest. 

Samuel Chu in LARB on his father – a veteran of Operation Yellowbird and the Umbrella Movement – and his own experiences of Hong Kong’s long tradition of protest…

Exactly a month earlier, on June 30, I had stayed up late waiting for the text of Hong Kong’s new national security law to appear online. The law had been drafted in Beijing in secret. No one in Hong Kong—not legislators, lawyers, or the public—had seen it. It would be unveiled only after it had already gone into effect. This was Beijing’s answer to the mass protests that had erupted the previous summer over a proposed extradition bill that would have allowed Hong Kong residents to disappear into mainland China’s courts. The law allowed ordinary acts of speech, protest, associa­tion, and publication to be prosecuted as “secession,” “subversion,” “terrorism,” or “collusion with foreign organizations.”

Once it appeared, I texted my legal counsel: “How do you think this affects us?” “Well,” they replied, “if you keep reading to Article 38, I think they wrote this for you.” This particular article stated that these laws applied to anyone “outside the Region,” as well as a “person who is not a permanent resident.” They had essen­tially proclaimed planetary jurisdiction. I was admittedly flattered. Not many people have a law drafted for them personally. Is this what it feels like to be wanted?

The SCMP reports…

Hong Kong tourism authorities have pledged to review the roll-out of a lighting project along a trail on The Peak after mounting complaints that flowers and trees were chopped down to make way for the installations.

But the Tourism Board defended the project, saying it had consulted local residents and sought advice from tree experts to minimise the impact on the surrounding environment.

In a statement on Sunday, the board said it valued residents’ views and would now “conduct broader consultation to review the overall arrangements of the project” to “refine its details, with a view to achieving a balance between tourism development, environmental protection and residents’ needs”.

A pic of an alleged lighting enhancement – looks like an anti-aircraft missile emplacement. Another of an ex-tree.

According to this way of thinking, you can’t ‘develop’ tourism unless you damage the environment and/or pay less regard to residents’ needs. In which case: maybe stop trying to attract visitors?  Why do we need a ‘balance’ between degrading natural and living environments and not degrading them? 

The HK Tourism Board has also decided to promote ‘industrial brands, miniature art, religious culture, and local characteristics’ it says here. This includes… 

…organised tours of Kowloon Motor Bus depots … QR code display boards at temples [and] a dedicated tourist map [of Yuen Long].

This isn’t desperation to boost visitor numbers (which are already overloading many parts of the city). It’s desperation to appear to be doing it. Will the HKTB people ever work out that tourists want to see places that haven’t been messed up to ‘attract’ them?

Samuel Bickett on the appointment of 79-year old New Zealander Sir Terence Arnold to Hong Kong’s Court of Final Appeal…

I have been through his record, and what it shows is a lawyer and judge who, when the state’s security or public-order claims have collided with someone’s liberty, has usually sided with the state. As New Zealand’s chief government litigator, he fought to deny bail to a recognized refugee who had spent two years in detention without charge, and to keep a television crew from interviewing him. He prosecuted an opposition MP and two broadcasters for contempt of court while declining to pursue a senior judge accused of discussing details of a Family Court case himself. As an appellate judge, he wrote a judgment upholding a peace activist’s conviction for burning a flag at an Anzac Day dawn service [and in retirement] … in the case that should worry Hongkongers most, voted to clear the way for a man’s extradition to China on the strength of Beijing’s promise not to torture him.

New Zealand’s higher courts overturned his rulings on the bail, the interview, and the flag. In Hong Kong, nobody will. That, presumably, is the point.

In Englesberg Ideas, Jeffrey Wasserstrom compares Joshua Wong to Thai and Polish activists.

Henry Tang’s wine collection has been auctioned by Christie’s. Chateaux Lafitte Rothschild, Latour, Margaux, etc. HK$50 million worth. 

Christian groups (of the fundamentalist-wacko type) criticize the Hong Kong tourism authorities for promoting the city as a Halloween destination. If they were arguing that it’s a waste of public money, contributing to overcrowding, or other policy grounds, this would perhaps count as ‘soft resistance’. But their complaint is that the contrived and tedious quasi-festival is pagan and death-cultish (and ‘foreign’). So that’s OK, I guess.

The SCMP reports…

Hong Kong suffered a record net loss of 40 kindergartens this year amid a shrinking student population and as the median age of women giving birth to their first child rose to its highest yet, according to official figures.

In its overview of preschools released on Thursday, the Education Bureau revealed that 930 kindergartens were currently operating in Hong Kong, down from roughly 970 in the previous school year.

While some new kindergartens were launched, the net decrease stood at 40, the highest on record. Each of the past four academic years witnessed a net decrease of about 20 preschools.

From 970 to 930 is a 4% drop. But the article suggests a net 120 of 1,050 kindergartens closed over five years – an 11% decline. A population shrivelling before our eyes. It’s almost as if expecting people to raise a family in a 350 sq ft apartment is unrealistic.

A video proving that the ‘AI slop’ aesthetic can work – the secret is that most of the effort involves the sort of creativity and wit that only humans can manage.

HKFP reports on the case of Wong Kwok-ngon (aka Wong On-yin and Ang Bo), a writer and YouTube commentator. He was taken in for questioning by NatSec police on December 6 last year shortly before participating in a planned press conference…

…to discuss topics including building renovations and unscrupulous tendering procedures for construction projects – matters which came to light in the wake of the [Wang Fuk Court] blaze.  

Wong then talked about his meeting with the police in two live-streamed YouTube videos, and was arrested days later.

He has been in jail since last December, and is now in court.

Under the Article 23 NatSec law, it is illegal to ‘divulge information related to a national security investigation’ – even if it’s your own case. (If a guy is taken in for questioning, where does he tell his wife he has been all day? Maybe: “I cannot answer that question on grounds of national security”.)

Wong said [police sergeant] Li only told him he could not reveal details of the meeting, but did not say that he could not even mention that a meeting had occurred.

He also said he told Li at the time that news of the National Security Department summoning him for a meeting had already been reported widely in local media.

And overseas. A CPJ statement at the time.

Wong is also being charged with expressing the wrong views…

…Prosecutors pointed to “seditious content” including Wong’s [YouTube] comments that Hongkongers lived in a “prison-like environment”…

With no sense of irony.

In the (probably paywalled) Spectator, Benedict Rogers marks Joshua Wong’s 30th birthday…

Since 2020, Wong has served multiple sentences for participating in or “inciting” unauthorised assemblies, including a peaceful vigil to commemorate the Tiananmen massacre. In 2024, he was sentenced to four years and eight months, charged with conspiracy to commit subversion under the draconian National Security Law imposed on Hong Kong by Beijing. A year later, he was hit with a second charge under the National Security Law, of collusion with foreign forces – an offence which could carry a life sentence. Last month, he pled guilty to this charge in court, and is awaiting sentencing.

The truth is, Wong should never have spent a day in jail. He never advocated violence, did not promote secession, and never committed what any free or open society would regard as any crime…

Civicus Lens does a Q&A with Frances Hui (click on the questions to see the answer)…

What is the government trying to achieve with this case?

It has never been clearer that the government aims to keep a symbol of my generation’s democracy movement out of public life. It also wants to wear down his spirit through years of isolation. That’s why prosecutors waited nearly five years to bring this charge, until Joshua had almost finished his sentence.

The case also shows the government using the law even more aggressively against people it can still physically reach, to punish ties with those it cannot reach. Prosecutors linked Joshua to Nathan Law, an exiled activist with a bounty on his head. They treated their years of shared international advocacy, including meeting foreign lawmakers, giving media interviews and calling for international pressure, as a continuing criminal conspiracy.

This turns years of lawful political advocacy into a crime…

From the Jamestown Foundation, a George Magnus piece on how AI will ‘deepen the divide between China’s two economies’…

The 15th Five-Year Plan places AI in pole position of the “modern industrial eco-system,” comprising all manner of manufacturing, technology, infrastructure, and control over global supply chains.

The very policies that are powering the industrial side of the PRC economy are exacerbating structural weaknesses and flaws in the much larger part of the economy where excessive debt, low productivity, high unemployment, and fiscal and financial failing are becoming more deeply entrenched.