Big Lychee, Various Sectors

After a two-year wait, the NatSec trial of pan-democrats starts. The alleged crime is ‘conspiracy to commit subversion’ – trying to gain constitutional political power peacefully through an election. 

Paid court-goers line up to get (if not use) public-gallery passes so there are fewer seats for regular members of the public (and defendants’ family members). At least the press can get in.

In The Guardian…

…prosecutors told the West Kowloon magistrates court that the accused had conspired to seriously interfere, disrupt or undermine the duties and functions of the Hong Kong government, “with a view to subverting the state power”.

…Most have been in jail for almost two years, having been denied bail. Legal observers have criticised the national security law for reversing the presumption of bail for defendants.

From CNN…

John Burns, emeritus professor at the University of Hong Kong, said the trial of the democrats is a “test of will” of Beijing’s capacity to completely wipe out organized opposition in Hong Kong.

Burns said arresting the democrats and pressing charges against them was meant to both intimidate and eliminate the opposition, either by chasing them out of Hong Kong into exile or by jailing them.

“It is a process of removing them. By shutting down political parties, shutting down trade unions, they are shutting down the basis of the support for organized opposition,” Burns said.

The NY Times…

“It’s hard to overestimate the enormity of this case, because it’s basically meant to be a knockout blow to Hong Kong’s peaceful political mainstream opposition,” said Thomas Kellogg, the executive director of the Center for Asian Law.

“This is a real choice by the Hong Kong government and Beijing,” he continued. “They could have focused on people who were talking about independence, for example, or people who had been more harshly critical of Hong Kong government policy and Beijing’s policy toward Hong Kong. Instead, they have gone after every sector of civic life.”

More from Tom Kellogg…

…the defendants are guilty of nothing more than organizing a primary election, as is their right under internat’l human rights law. They should be found not guilty, and prosecutors trying the case should be shamed by the court. That won’t happen, of course. 

Jemimah Steinfeld at Index on Censorship loses patience with the cautious phrasing of the big news outlets and gives it both barrels…

The 47 are walking into court with their guilt presumed.

…This is a show trial masquerading as justice. 

 From ChinaFile, an updated full list of NatSec arrests and convictions.

In short, the trial is likely to reflect badly on a city trying to convince the world it is free and open. To Hongkongers, the dissonance or contradiction between the political prosecutions and jailings and the Hello Hong Kong tourism campaign is both absurd and tragic. But not too puzzling if you can grasp the new-look ‘One Country, Two Systems’ model: Beijing is in charge of this stuff, leaving Hong Kong officials to flail helplessly doing that stuff.

Starting today: the NatSec ‘subversion’ trial of pan-democrats for trying to win Legislative Council elections (that never even took place). Background here…

The defendants say they have been targeted for normal opposition politics…

Al Jazeera’s report. More from Reuters…

Prosecutors have described the primary election – held to select the strongest candidates to contest an upcoming legislative election – as a “vicious plot” to subvert the government and to wreak “mutual destruction” on the city by taking control of the city’s parliament.

Eric Lai comments in The Diplomat… 

Some may argue that Hong Kong is still different from the autocratic regimes named above, because it does not have a kangaroo court. Yet, the old narrative of Hong Kong’s judicial independence and the rule of law is no longer persuasive in light of this political trial. 

The people lining up to fill limited seats in the public gallery seem to have little idea what’s going on.

Whether you call the courts ‘kangaroo’ or not, with unseemly legal actions in progress (Jimmy Lai in due course), it’s not a great time to launch a tourism campaign. The SCMP on PR gurus’ reactions to the ‘cheap and tacky’ ‘Hello Hong Kong’ exercise…

Another veteran brand strategist, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, described the campaign as “terrible, vapid and empty” compared with the efforts of other cities.

…He said in a worse scenario the concept could get twisted, as it could simply be put next to “a bad story” and create terrible imagery.

And on cue…

Some links to start the week…

Very watchable Singaporean 2022 film Ren Yin on a diverse selection of people who have – so far – chosen to stay in Hong Kong.

The Guardian on public anger following the wave of Covid deaths in China…

Across China, hundreds of thousands of families are in mourning. Many are now questioning their faith in the government. The episode has seemingly not affected Xi’s power but it has dented his reputation. A 32-year-old man in Guangzhou says he was once a patriot but is now disillusioned. “Maybe I should thank Covid for making me clearly see through the whole political and economic system.”

Optimized is the new harmonized: Beijing’s image-creators rewrite the sudden end of zero-Covid…

How does an image-obsessed political system deal with the fallout after so many months of insisting that the costs of strict lockdown must be borne by all with a sense of sacrifice? Deny and reframe.

…State media have actively pushed the narrative that the sudden dismantling of rigid Covid control measures was simply a skillful re-tooling of existing policies. And one of the most important tools in this reframing process has been the phrase “optimize and adjust epidemic prevention and control measures”.

…The CCP invests so much of its credibility and legitimacy in the idea that it governs effectively and “scientifically,” always for the benefit of the people, that the story of success is always written before the outcome.

Slate asks everyone to stop calling Xi Jinping ‘President’…

Why is this mistranslation pernicious and problematic? Because it allows Beijing to tell two radically different stories. In China, General Secretary Xi Jinping rules over a tightly controlled, illiberal system. But internationally, President Xi Jinping can advocate globalization, openness, and free trade.

Strictly for military/maritime/Southeast Asia geeks, a long US Naval War Studies paper on Malaysian and Indonesian responses to China’s growing presence in the SCS…

What might at first seem to be among China’s greatest strengths—its employment of an immense, integrated maritime capability to coerce Southeast Asian claimants into acquiescing to its expansive claims—rapidly is becoming its greatest weakness. China’s efforts to expand its control into the southern South China Sea has become a significant strategic vulnerability in terms of its relations with Indonesia and Malaysia.

SOAS paper on trying to analyze China’s Ukraine policy.

For fellow steampunk fans – this thing is real.

The Hello Hong Kong tourism hub-zone rehab-cum-kickstart scheme is launched by a row of men in suits. Trying to be charitable here, but: the dancers, the muzak, the graphics, the emcee saying everything in three languages, the all-masked men-in-suits audience, the desperation behind an offer of 500,000 free air tickets. 

In fairness, my mind sort of drifted after the Chief Executive intoned ‘…Hong Kong, the premier mice destination of Asia’. (Those aren’t mice, John – they’re rats. And not as in ‘tests’.) Maybe it gets better. But it looks like a box-ticking exercise by HK Tourism Board floozies out of their minds on CBD gummies and civil servants impatient to retire. No flair, no surprises, nothing remotely adventurous. Depressing. (Though on the bright side, it might fail to attract zillions of visitors. Actually, there’s a good question: who exactly was the target audience for this?)

The CE’s personal warm welcome. And the official Hello Hong Kong promo vid . (What, no rickshaws?)

The 500,000 tickets were, it says here, bought by the Airport Authority, whose boss said…

…each visitor with a free ticket is expected to bring two or three companions with them, meaning the giveaway could attract some 1.5 million travellers in total, accounting for some 10 percent of the arrivals expected in the coming half a year.

By ‘two or three’, we mean ‘one’ – let’s hope. 

It gets weirder, or at least more complicated. The government will distribute 80,000 free tickets to Hong Kong residents so they can ‘share the joy’ – by going somewhere else. And another 80,000 will go to ‘Greater Bay Area’ folk, so they can come to Hong Kong and then go somewhere else, or something.

Some out-of-area links…

Spot the brain cell: Jordan Klepper of The Late Show interviewing Trump fans in South Carolina.

A thread on the Wagner Group’s human (as in released convicts) wave tactics in Ukraine.

It seems the truly hip and groovy among us have the most ancient rice cookers. This guy’s model (on the left below) is 25 years old, but to me it looks more like the space-age touch-screen Internet-linked ones of today. That’s because mine is on the right. It has two buttons: one to open the lid, and one that toggles between ‘cooking’ and ‘keeping warm’ – for actual ‘off’ you unplug the whole thing. No microchips. No beeping noises. No LED or indeed any screen. Virtually no moving parts. Still working fine after all these decades. 

A mixed, something-for-everyone, bag…

The Intercept on Apple/Tencent’s Internet censorship (blocking of GitLab on Safari browser) in Hong Kong…

While Tencent provides some public explanation of its criteria for blocking a website, its decision-making process is completely opaque, and the published censorship standards are extremely vague, including offenses like “endangering national security” and “undermining national unity.”

Everyone agrees that Impossible City by Karen Cheung and Indelible City by Louisa Lim are superb books. Except that someone begs to differ.

A ‘pragmatic dreamer’ launches a new overseas-based Hong Kong news outlet.

US-China Perception Monitor on how CGTN’s global public opinion ‘think tank’ produces biased survey results.

…respondents to these surveys are likely recruited solely through CGTN websites and social media … they report high levels of support for abstract concepts related to Xi’s speech, such as ‘resolutely opposing all forms of hegemonism and power politics’.

Howard French in Foreign Policy on China’s demographic-economic challenges…

…the sooner China comes to terms with the truth that old-fashioned, head-to-head great-power competition of the type that involves big, continual increases in expenditures on weaponry and hard power—as the country has undertaken in recent years—will condemn large swaths of its population to something well short of developed-world living standards, then the better it will be for its people.

…Failure to come up with new national objectives to replace the goal of the last several decades, building the world’s largest economy, will mean that China will look in other, less peaceful directions for validation of the party and nation, with an armed attempt to take over Taiwan as the most obvious answer.

Foreign Affairs on the backfiring of Beijing’s ‘tendency to prioritize territorial interests over strategic objectives’ – how to lose friends and alienate people. A frequent pro-Beijing op-ed contributor in the SCMP makes a similar point…

…China has played its diplomatic hand poorly. It got arrogant and impatient, and overreached, playing right into the US campaign to isolate and demonise it. Now it is reaping the whirlwind of its foreign policies and actions in Asia.

…countries from Australia to Japan and from India to Indonesia are rapidly coalescing into an anti-China security camp.

Which brings us to the Czech Republic’s new President calling his Taiwan counterpart – and Beijing erupting in an explosion of mouth-frothing and hurt-the-feelings. A supposed Wang Huning re-think of policy notwithstanding, the trend seems to be for more countries to nudge closer to normalized relations with Taiwan…

Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee sees no need for the idea of an independent inquiry into the government’s handling of the Covid pandemic. His reasons – as summarized here – are not exactly convincing… 

1) the virus was new; 2) US and UK had more deaths; 3) the pandemic changed fast; 4) the gov has learned lessons and found new ways.

We had an expert committee report (and health minister’s resignation) following SARS in 2003. But Hong Kong now has a ‘patriots-only’ form of governance with a more top-down and authoritarian style and an opposition-free legislature – not to mention a less critical press. Remember, this new system was implemented to disabuse Hong Kong people of the idea that the government should be accountable to them (and thus might have a duty to acknowledge faults). It is even more unthinkable that it would accommodate implicit criticism of local policies that reflected Beijing’s ideological zero-Covid approach.

But the main reason we will not get an independent inquiry is that the new-look Hong Kong system of administration is not going to do independent anything. The city is being brought into line with the CCP’s Leninist principles that specifically reject ‘separation of powers’ and ‘checks and balances’, or anything that challenges the ruling party’s monopoly of power. Behind the new laws, structures and slogans, that is the new order.

In his press conference, the CE was also asked a question with (no, not on face masks) a less predictable answer: what will the government do with the sprawling community isolation facilities at Penny’s Bay and elsewhere?

It will be interesting to see if officials have the imagination or even desire to put these huge and pricey complexes to good use. They could, for example, lease them out cheaply to whatever individuals or small businesses wanted them, with as few rules as possible – for any use as housing, offices, workshops, street food, retail or whatever people wanted. A golden opportunity for some good old fashioned laissez-faire, and maybe an exciting way to divert public attention from more depressing matters. But don’t hold your breath.

Hong Kong Customs will fearlessly pursue cannabidiol products after they become illegal – officially classified as a dangerous drug – on February 1…

Penalties include up to life in prison and HK$5 million (US$638,000) in fines for importing, exporting or producing CBD. Possession of the substance can result in a sentence of up to seven years and HK$1 million (US$128,000) in fines.

Which suddenly reminds me that I bought a pack of CBD gummies out of curiosity a few months ago at a discount food place in Central. So, in the interests of science and/or not being arrested tomorrow, I try them out. 

As I suspected: there is no noticeable effect at all. (Some people say the stuff ‘helps them relax’ – but since I am never not relaxed, that’s irrelevant.) This is homeopathic cannabis. You get more of a buzz eating spinach. It belongs in the same category as tree tea oil, aloe vera, coconut water and all the other fads.

In other countries, it might conceivably be considered a legal high; in Hong Kong, it’s an illegal gummy. (Quite nice gummies, by the way.)  In a place where you can get arrested for cartoons of sheep or playing a specific tune – and now having jelly candies – who needs drugs to distort your perception of reality?

The Hong Kong government sets up a ‘good stories’ task force to…

…[devise] narratives for the new situation, new potentials and new opportunities in Hong Kong under its new development stage. …the Task Force aims to allow friends and stakeholders in Hong Kong, the Mainland and overseas regions to have a more comprehensive understanding of Hong Kong’s advantages and opportunities so that the city’s edges can be fully known, understood and recognised.

Interestingly, the new new new normalcy is all of the post-Covid variety rather than anything icky following the 2019 ‘social events’, ‘terrorist attacks’ or whatever it’s called now – but telling stories well is hard with the NatSec complex’s arrests and show-trials apparently becoming a permanent ongoing facet of Hong Kong’s image.

Along with an array of Bureau heads, the task force includes the usual property developers, other business types, government-friendly academics, token ethnics (with two Germans) – and media figures Li Ruigang of CMC and the SCMP’s Tammy Tam. Also, ‘partner organizations’. It sounds like a pretty unwieldy line-up, but this exercise is probably more about telling task force members what line to push at conferences rather than gathering their advice on how to spin contemporary Hong Kong. 

Prepare to be amazed. Or something.

On the subject of NatSec – HKFP’s monthly update on the crackdown. And eight more people were imprisoned for 11-45 months for being at a protest…

Now, in all, 892 #HongKongers have been sentenced to a total of 1,432 years in prison for political crimes. Hundreds of others have been sentenced to non-fixed terms in juvenile detention or remanded in custody pending completion of trial, for a total of 1,325 #PoliticalPrisoners

Fancy your skills at serious heavy-duty spin? Try helping Wang Huning craft Beijing’s replacement for ‘one country two systems’ as a Taiwan policy.

Some HK Free Press pieces you might have missed… 

Revealing which media are and are not invited to John Lee’s inauguration would aid terrorists. (Maybe the more outlets are allowed to cover the show, the more the public is terrorized with boredom.)

Spring festival sedition trials: Stand News for publishing opinions, and a Portuguese citizen for Internet posts and crowdfunding for ‘military expenses’. A comment on the former…

The longer this trial goes on, the more clear it becomes that GovHK thinks that any media outlet that allows any protester or pro-Demo person to express their view is guilty of sedition.

(Also, a thread on the disappearance of online media archives.)

And Beijing and Hong Kong officials lash out against remarks by the US Consul-General. Government release – 1,800 words of overly wrought righteous fury – here…

…the US Government and politicians have been repeatedly exploiting different incidents and occasions, as well as creating excuses, to slander the NSL and attack the HKSAR in its dutiful, faithful and lawful implementation of the NSL. 

Perhaps the authorities could arrange to have fewer ‘incidents and occasions’ in the first place?

Elsewhere…

YouTube interview with Pete Spurrier of Blacksmith Books. Who knew the trendy and glamorous world of publishing includes scooping coins up in the middle of a flooded road?

The CCP spells out its ‘national security’ neurosis: from the Center for Strategic Translation, an English version of an extract from The Total National Security Paradigm: A Study Outline…

“an important and authoritative auxiliary text for the broad mass of cadres” to include in their group study sessions.

George Magnus in New Statesman on China’s economic prospects…

If the ultimate goal of the government is to have a compliant citizenry that is beholden to and trusting in the CCP, the last few months have done the opposite. The zero Covid experience has stained the government’s reputation and its status among citizens. Xi’s political status is secure, but his reputation is now clearly flawed.

NY Mag interview with Michael Pettis on the same subject.

The Guardian on Xi’s hold on power, regardless of screw-ups…

Several analysts the Guardian spoke to described a catch-22 in Xi’s leadership, but one he ultimately benefits from. He has consolidated power so successfully that he essentially is the party. It means that he owns its mistakes as well as its successes, but having effectively destroyed the prospects of any opposition, it’s of little consequence. There may be dissatisfaction with Xi, but not among anyone powerful enough to do something about it.

(Also in the Guardian – a pretty good long read on the Cultural Revolution, including Xi Jinping’s ‘creation myth’.)

The Belt and Road vision-concept thing will be 10 years old this year. 9 Dash Line takes stock…

…BRI has all but disappeared from official statements and speeches by the Chinese leadership … Nonetheless, the Chinese leadership is reluctant to fully abandon the BRI, aiming to reframe and transform the initiative instead. 

China Digital Times looks at the struggle to portray it as a success. And WSJ (firewalled) on badly built projects starting to crumble from Uganda to Ecuador to Pakistan. 

From China Media Project – how Chinese authorities are Trying Too Hard to enlist exchange students in ‘discourse power’ propaganda initiatives.

Also from CDT, Cyberspace Administration guidelines on countering ‘gloomy sentiments’ during Spring Festival…

4. Strengthen the crackdown on feudal superstitions and unhealthy traditions. First, continue to clean up posts and videos that praise or promote feudal superstitions and practices, fortune telling, divination, and other illegal services. Strictly limit the use of click-bait posts that feature revealing clothing or suggestive behaviors to create vulgar personas such as “hotel hottie,” “scenic-spot hottie,” “snow hottie,” “rural hottie,” “food delivery hottie,” etc.

The Hong Kong CE says he aims to pass a local (‘Article 23’) NatSec Law this year. Despite the overrides-everything 2020 NatSec Law, there are loopholes everywhere you look – in NatSec-related laws, in tech and in new media. Foreign agents, espionage and plots also abound. 

Lee says the NatSec bill…

would focus on preventing “clandestine espionage activities,” block new methods of spying that arise from technological advancements, and plug loopholes introduced by new media. He did not specify how the law would legislate these areas.

In addition, the chief executive said there had been many “foreign agents” acting under the guise of different names, institutions or forums in Hong Kong.

Executive Councilor Ronny Tong weighs in…

“The work of restricting foreign political organizations to campaign in Hong Kong has never been done, nor that of restricting local groups from building ties with foreign political groups,” Tong said. 

“In other countries, crimes like treason and sedition always lead to life imprisonment or even the death penalty. Whereas under the NSL, the maximum penalty is only life imprisonment.”

(OK, Ronny – what about other countries’ penalties for sheep cartoons?)

Lee’s parallel comments on the media (HKFP story) suggest that, one way or another, the authorities will find ways to counter ‘fake news’, tighten control/monitoring of the Internet and social media, and turn up the paranoia on foreign-linked journalists – not to mention academics, NGOs, crowdfunding causes and other groups.

The large and amply funded NatSec police department will no doubt find plenty to do. (Yesterday they arrested six people for selling books.)

Maybe experts in the Leninist theory of dialectical contradiction can sort this out: one part of the Hong Kong government is trying hard to promote the city as distinct, free and international, while another part rants about how it is part of and subject to China and sees evil foreign forces’ threats everywhere.

Up north, China has officially announced that its population is declining ‘earlier than expected’, though probably several years after it started. Yi Fuzian, demonized (by Beijing) demographer, raises the alarm. (His article from last year.) While another expert says excitable commentators can calm down – the phenomenon is too slow-moving and forecastable to be a ‘crisis’.

Yi is not entirely exaggerating Beijing’s challenges. 

In particular, China has reached the declining-population stage while its per-capita GDP is still at around the level of, say, Mexico. Other countries in this position – South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Spain, Italy, Germany, etc – have developed economies and can largely afford extra pension, healthcare and other costs (and can attract immigrants). 

Also, China’s residential property sector combines absurd overvaluations with massive oversupply and an unavoidable decline in demand – good luck ‘growing into it’. Yet a collapse in prices really could spark big trouble.

Increased productivity is the only way to go. That means institutional reforms – like getting the state out of the allocation of capital. Can the CCP stomach that?

And no-one wants babies.

Barring anything really interesting happening, that’s probably it around here til the Year of the Water Rabbit. Gung Hei…

The Standard feigns fascination – a la front page – about whether former CE Carrie Lam is being appointed to the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, and if not, why not. As with the NPC, the CPPCC’s function is ceremonial, and membership is the Mainland equivalent of a Gold Bauhinia Medal for flunkies. The editorial suggests that she will not receive the symbolic award because Beijing doesn’t totally trust former colonial-era civil servants. Beijing doesn’t trust anybody. Anyone who remembers 2019 can think of more obvious reasons. 

A billionaire property tycoon makes a bigger display of empathy for the less-advantaged than the legislature, let alone the government. Corporate PR folk like to describe such little gestures as ‘meaningful’. In this case, the public may infer a meaning in the contrast with Hong Kong officialdom’s longstanding contempt for the poor.

Bemused about the commercial spaceport (ie rocket-launch site) agreement signed between Djibouti and one Hong Kong Aerospace Technology? This thread (link corrected) does some digging. The company was created via a backdoor listing in 2021 (yield: 0.00%). Executives include United Front figures, and INEDs include Rimsky Yuen, Ceajer Chan and Nicholas Brooke. And it is linked to a Shenzhen entity with – well, duh – ties to the Mainland’s state aerospace corporation.

Watch Djibouti reach Mars first.