Big Lychee, Various Sectors

My third and last compulsory PCR test – day six after release from quarantine – is this morning. Hong Kong Covid policies being the gift that keeps on giving, I must still take a daily RAT test for a few days, and upload a pic thereof to a government app. Chances are no-one will notice if you just ignore this whole thing, but I’m not keen on finding out when there are fines and prison sentences on offer for delinquents. Obviously, I wouldn’t dream of sending a pic of the same used test cartridge for days in a row. 

As whining reaches a new crescendo, another incremental relaxation of quarantine requirements – to 0+7 – looks possible. In order to go ahead, officials face the challenge of finding a coherent and credible reason why, after relying on misleading stats to insist the previous stupidity was essential, they can now move away from it. ‘We suddenly realized it was stupid’ is presumably not an option…

Clearly it would be foolish to suppose that I am the only person who has noticed that policy is now being made on the basis of fictitious statistics. The danger is not just that erroneous fears or hopes could lead to misguided policies. The danger is that people will entirely lose faith in the government’s public health efforts.

If you think that’s tough, how will Beijing explain an abandonment of zero-Covid – to Guiyang residents, for example, if and when it ever happens? (And will they make an announcement that when it’s OK to touch foreigners again?)

Thread by a guy at TriviumChina on why Beijing won’t end zero-Covid before sometime in 2023

Some links…

BBC video on the UK’s new migrants from Hong Kong. And a video on Hongkongers learning to change plugs and caulk bathtubs before emigrating to do-it-yourself societies. Article here.

Merics on why, to Xi Jinping, everything is about national security.

And ‘color revolutions’ must be prevented.

Professor Michael C. Davis on the vigorous use of Hong Kong’s archaic sedition law…

Public advocacy that had previously passed as legal public protests and critical debate has now been branded sedition, with over 60 arrests so far. 

…The court judges that tens of thousands of 2019 protesters “did not recognize the sovereignty of the People’s Republic of China over the HKSAR and did not support the policy of the ‘One Country, Two Systems,’” while supporting calls for “independence and self-determination.” From this characterization it then appears that the defendant [cartoon sheep] book authors, by raising awareness of the protest in children’s books, suffer guilt by association with such allegedly illegal protests.

The local ‘Article 23’ NatSec Law will probably absorb this old legislation, and increase the sentences.

Regina Ip proposes financial incentives for people to have kids, and to freeze eggs and (for some reason) sperm. Interesting that she implicitly admits Hong Kong has a serious demographic – also known as emigration – problem. She’s also pushing ‘Chinese medicine’ to relieve pressure on the scientific sort.

(Won’t ingenious crooks find ways to game this system? For example, organized syndicates giving Regina samples of other people’s sperm every week just for the cash? Or borrowing babies. Or something.)

Ta Kung Pao runs a commentary accusing ‘anti-Chinese elements and anti-China media’ of ‘whitewashing colonial rule’ by encouraging mourning of the Queen. Has anyone ‘encouraged’ this spontaneous public display? (Apart from the taxi driver who picked me up from the quarantine hotel near the British consulate. He was delighted at carrying people laden with flowers up to the place.) They could have just stayed silent rather than show how thin-skinned they are – but no.

Vice looks at the overt expressions of grief – for the death of Hong Kong, if not of Elizabeth II – that riled the CCP paper.

An aging Hong Kong actor retracts his expressions of condolence and expresses deep love for the motherland.

(While we’re at it, all of Private Eye’s past covers featuring the Queen.)

The perversity must continue: Beijing censors the WHO announcement that the Corvid pandemic is coming to an end. 

Some (getting stale) links for the weekend…

Foreign Policy on lessons from the Ukraine war for China…

What could be called the Davos view that China is “communist in name only” is fading. In its place, an understanding of the strength of both ethnonationalist and Marxist-Leninist conviction among the Chinese leadership is taking hold. 

In Foreign Affairs, an exiled former CCP official criticizes China’s hubris and paranoia…

Xi seems to be positioning himself not as merely a great party leader but as a modern-day emperor.

…Why, unlike his predecessors, is Xi so resistant to others’ advice? Part of the reason, I suspect, is that he suffers from an inferiority complex, knowing that he is poorly educated in comparison with other top CCP leaders.

And a follow-up on the pitfalls of calling Xi ‘president’ rather than ‘general secretary’.

A bird’s eye view of China’s real estate expansion…

We use an innovative alternative data set – satellite Night Time Lights (NTL) – to quantify China’s expansion in fixed assets (real estate, factories, infrastructure).

China Media Project marks the 20th anniversary of the slogan ‘sneaky visit’.

War on the Rocks on the chances of Beijing pulling off an invasion of Taiwan…

The sheer size, scale, and complexity involved with invading Taiwan likely checks even the most self-serving and impetuous instincts inside the Chinese Community Party. 

And some out-of-area viewing: interview with a sprightly 98-year-old German-born Russian Jew about his time with US forces interrogating captured Nazis.

Any plans for a quick trip out of Hong Kong in the next few months go out the window as the ‘next round’ of hotel quarantine – Nov/Dec/Jan – seems set to go ahead. The government might also plug the loophole allowing unvaccinated Mainlanders entry. The outcry over this is a good example of how people have been conditioned to accept (in this case, demand) Covid idiocy: wouldn’t it make more sense to demand that everyone from across the world be treated the same way as the Mainlanders?

What have I missed while gorging on kimchi and whining about Covid tests and form-filling at the airport, and cold baked beans in quarantine? Su Xinqi on the flimsiness of Chow Hang-tung’s ‘incitement to subversion’ charge. Lorie Lai’s mitigation (cut short by judge).

The latest sedition/subversion news here, here and here. (Also from HKFP, an op-ed on lengthy pre-trial detentions.) The Department of Justice uses taxpayers’ money to pursue convictions for the most trivial cases. And the Hong Kong movie industry body warns members against attending the Golden Horse Awards because…

‘Taiwanese directors or artists have repeatedly made comments that are unrelated to films, which has mixed politics into films and tainted the independent artistry of films’. 

By ‘artistry’ (‘independent’, indeed), we mean making movies that satisfy Mainland censors. It is an art, I guess.

…of mini- (two days and 10 hours’) quarantine. Not enough time to have finished Major Pettigrew’s Last Stand – a JK Rowling-ish thing lying around on my Kindle for some reason. Trevor Howard would play the lead in the movie.

Now having to do multiple self- and non-self-tests over the coming days. And barred from restaurants. (Which reminds me of the food in Seoul: not just Korean, but amazing Indian, Uzbek, Nepalese and quasi-Jiangxi fare. Portion sizes are probably 30-50% bigger than in Hong Kong.)

Every person arriving in Hong Kong is telling other people around the world not to even think of coming here. A Bloomberg op-ed by a quarantine inmate who notes that the rituals are institutionalized and someone’s making a ton of money from all this… 

Hong Kong’s policies, guided by mainland China’s draconian zero-infections approach, have made misery the raison d’être of this once-vibrant economy.

… what was prudence in March 2020 looks like parody in September 2022.

Dr Owen on why ‘3+4’ has no scientific basis…

Continued border quarantine will have a significant negative impact on the economy. At this stage of the epidemic, these policies will do significantly more long-term harm to population health than the disease itself.

A reminder that this a performance: Mainlanders can waltz in with no vaccination or quarantine (though they will be stuck in hotels when they go back over the border), and say hello to the monkeypox camp.

…a perfect opportunity to deepen my understanding of the decisive significance of the ‘two establishes’.

Including in Korea, have had to sign up to three (or four?) online monitoring/reporting apps with clunky interfaces, all requiring the exact same info over and over. Worst time was at HK Airport converting the Leave Home Safe app into the Colour Code thing (do it before return flight!!!), followed by tests, more waiting for RAT result, then a one-hour wait for transport. Family in front of me had to go through it all with screaming kids (this is midnight) and got split up into separate vehicles to get to quarantine hotel. Despite frontline staff trying to crack jokes to avoid lynching by jetlagged arriving passengers, the process is sadistic. Download your Compulsory Quarantine Order – basically a warrant – en route to hotel, if possible, or face more grief at the apocalyptic check-in.

Next morning, cold baked beans for breakfast…

If 21 days’ quarantine was necessary, how come they reduced it to 14? And how come it can now be three? And here comes another…

Plus, three more PCR tests in the week after release, also requiring booking and standing in line each time. 

Those of us who hadn’t left Hong Kong for three years heard about all this. Only when you experience it in person do you realize how amazingly screwed-up the city has become. Any foreigners desperate enough to visit must be screaming ‘Never coming here again!’ the whole time. 

As with NatSec horrors, even the most outraged and free-thinking residents have been conditioned into not noticing quite how extreme and insane all this is. The fashionable word is ‘normalized’. Lo Chung-mau on TV notwithstanding, you have to get out to see how far – and irretrievably – the city has fallen.

Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism...

“Totalitarianism in power invariably replaces all first-rate talents, regardless of their sympathies, with those crackpots and fools whose lack of intelligence and creativity is still the best guarantee of their loyalty.”

Update: this.

Following Hong Kong from afar, you lose any feeling that it’s all a bad dream or aberration and something might still happen to put things back the way they should be. Seen from a distance, you realize: that’s it – it’s really over.

In case anyone missed them, a couple of things from the tireless Su Xinqi. Chow Hang-tung’s commital proceedings…

“The five operational principles must be read as a whole instead of separately,” Chow told the court. “We want democracy for this country, so what’s the greatest obstacle? That’s the one-party dictatorship and the wicked logic of considering party and state as one.”

And an account of a patriotic school’s national security education for kids…

The TV was surrounded by dozens of stuffed panda toys, which the children were assured they could play with later if they listened attentively.

A law firm tears into Hong Kong’s Covid policy.

The main Korean news: a typhoon is coming, and the Frieze art fair puts Seoul on the cultural map – or, as international media point out, helps take Hong Kong off it.

First time here in 25 years. Despite undoubted strides in living standards, economic/tech achievements and soft power, the place still manages to be backward in odd ways. English signage being an unmissable example. It’s obviously a point of pride not to pass anything by a native proof-reader, ever. The official Q Code (pointless and clunky) online Covid system is a nightmare to navigate simply because it eschews basic interface English phrases like ‘enter’ or ‘continue’ in favour of non-obvious words like ‘inquiry’.

Random glances around hotel room…

Otherwise, kimchi paradise.

…in a couple of days. First trip away from Hong Kong since December 2019. Hopefully, I am not going to get the same result as: Secretary for Innovation, Technology and Industry Professor Sun Dong (the latest); Police Commissioner Raymond Siu; Head of Immigration Au Ka-wang; Commerce Secretary Algernon Yau; and Deputy Chief Secretary of Administration Warner Cheuk – plus any other government officials I’ve missed. 

What are they all up to? Did they sneak through the barrier tape into a country park barbecue pit? Does this mean the Hong Kong government is a ‘cluster’? Should it be sealed off and shut down, or put in an isolation camp?

This week’s NatSec horrors, courtesy of HK Free Press…

Chow Pak-kwan is found guilty of (take a deep breath), obstructing a police officer and attempting to escape from legal custody in November 2019. (Video of incident here.) A judge tells Chow Hang-tung she will get a fair trial – ie, be able to defend herself – even though prosecutors refuse to disclose full details of the ‘foreign forces’ she was allegedly colluding with. And journalist Bao Choy appeals against her conviction for making false statements to obtain vehicle registration data regarding the July 2019 Yuen Long MTR station attack.

Speaking of which, some sensible points about the Hong Kong parliament-in-exile.

The fate of Hong Kong’s ‘secrets’ Facebook pages.

The Guardian on China’s property mess…

…just as it has become impossible for President Xi Jinping to U-turn on the mass lockdowns that have stunted economic activity, it also appears increasingly unlikely that he and his politburo will reverse the crackdown on reckless lending in the property market that has led to a 40% fall in the sale of homes this year.

I’ll be going to South Korea. Guess it’s a once-every-quarter-century kind of place: a quick flick through old passports reveals that I was last there in November 1998, when Kimpo was still the main airport, the parks were full of guys in suits who hadn’t told their families they’d lost their jobs owing to the Asian financial crisis, and half the cast of Extraordinary Attorney Woo probably hadn’t been born.

All worth reading!

Dr Siddarth Sridhar on how the government’s Covid policies threaten to squeeze other – even more serious cases – out of hospitals. In other words (though he doesn’t put it so bluntly), the dynamic lite zero-Covid ideology could lead to more deaths from non-Covid causes. Nuts.

Senior international lawyers leaving Hong Kong because of quarantine rules and declining business. (A lot of self-righteous mouth-frothing on Twitter about the fact that these individuals cite Covid restrictions rather than the NatSec regime as a reason to emigrate. Not sure it’s that simple. The Beijing-imposed Covid rules are just as much part of the downgrading of ‘One Country, Two Systems’ as, say, no-jury court trials, and many of the curbs seem more to do with social control rather than public health. It’s all the same post-2019 nightmare. And why should quitting Hong Kong to flee NatSec be any more – or less – noble than fleeing travel restrictions? Everyone’s decision is personal and different.)

HK Free Press op-ed on the ‘tell Hong Kong’s story well’ fantasy…

…Hong Kong’s problem with the world is not so much a shortage of good stories as a surplus of bad ones.

(The erhu-player mentioned in the column has a nasty surprise.)

And another on Beijing’s withdrawal from climate-change cooperation with the US… 

The message from Beijing is clear: accept our authoritarian rule over Taiwan or we’ll doom Planet Earth and all its inhabitants to the ravages of climate change.

Globe and Mail update on plans for a Hong Kong parliament-in-exile, and Hong Kong authorities’ threats against Canada-based activists involved in the project.

The Hill on China’s property woes…

“The Xi government may provide a burst of liquidity to paper over the insolvency of property developers, but it cannot paper over the demographics of a declining population and forty or sixty million vacant and overpriced apartments.”

And a Substack article on the effects of a potentially greater challenge – China’s record high temperatures.

ASPI Strategist on how China views its United Front influence operations overseas.

Hong Kong Watch says there have been 140,000 applications for BNO visas to migrate to the UK. That’s getting on for one in every 50 Hong Kong people. If a roughly similar number are going to Canada, Australia, Taiwan, etc – and, yes, Japan – that would be one in 25, or 4%. Now assume most are in the under-40 age group, and of above-average education levels, and you’re looking at a real demographic event.

The SCMP puts a more patriotic spin on the story: BNO applications down 8%.

Genius former pro-democrat Ronny Tong’s recommendation to counteract the brain drain: golf not housing.

Some weekend reading…

HK Free Press on Hong Kong’s most dangerous stretch of road.

DW looks at Hong Kong’s jury-less trials.

Bitter Winter on the Hong Kong courts’ treatment of a man accused of violence against Falun Gong members.

An explainer on China’s United Front in the UK, by the Conservative Party-linked China Research Group.

Second part of Michael Pettis’s article on China’s real-estate woes.

China Media Project dissects the latest People’s Daily rant about Nancy Pelosi (yes, they’re still going nuts about her).

Drew Pavlou – Australian anti-CCP enfant terrible – is on Substack.

The Guardian on how and why dictatorships make crap decisions…

…[Putin’s] approach to the current Ukraine conflict has clearly been deluded.

…“There are no incentives to tell the truth on the ground to the higher command…”

From Asian Review of Books – a history of tigers in Hong Kong.

And a review of Hong Kong novel Price’s Price by Chris Maden.

How the Qing empire semi-colonized Taiwan – link to overview of a National Palace Museum exhibit.

Have they found Genghis Khan’s grave?

…the numerous skeletons buried on top of the structure were most likely the slaves who built it and who were then massacred to keep the secret of the location.

…The [16] women are presumed to have been wives and concubines of the leader, who were killed to accompany the warlord in the afterlife.

His horses didn’t have it any better.

For map fans (or, more to the point, everyone who isn’t a map fan), the best simple illustration ever of the distortion in Mercator’s projection.