116,000 of our under-40s workers are missing

Overcome today with the excitement of the Global Financial Hub-Zone Leadership Summit plus a Number 8 Light Showers signal (disrupted workday apparently justified because of storm’s impact on south side of Hong Kong Island, like the rest of us care). So just the declaration of an early weekend and some reading…

From HKFP, the number of 18-39-year-olds in the workforce has mysteriously fallen 8.2% over the last two years. (No analysis of how or why, though perhaps none is necessary. Such a decline could in theory indicate an extreme aging society, a massive rise in further education, or the astounding allure of Greater Bay Area opportunities – but even the government now admits to a massive increase in emigration.)

More manufacturing than Leadership Summit-style finance – Harris Bricken blog on the dilemmas and challenges facing overseas businesses in China.

Interesting article on censorship of the system that supposedly enables Chinese officials to view uncensored information, with potentially disastrous implications for decision-making – as with Covid. Maybe they need an internal internal news channel.

China’s overseas ‘police stations’ do not have any police in them, says Global Times.

Some brighter news: Beijing bans celebrities from endorsing health, financial and some other products, while those with ‘loose morals’ are forbidden to advertise anything (does that include Jackie Chan?).

Interview with a worker who fled the locked-down Foxconn smart-phone factory in Zhengzhou. (Video of workers breaking through hazmat-suited cordon on freeway here.)

Canada’s CBC on itself, closing its Beijing bureau.

AP on USCG inspections of Chinese fishing vessels off the Pacific coast of South America.

The Council on Foreign Relations on Chinese attempts to influence US politics.

Book fans will be glad to know – yes, I’ve been unpacking the things…

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No promoting ‘illegal ideologies’, please

Background to the Stand News case from VOA  – ‘conspiring to publish seditious publications’.

Updated threads from Su Xinqi. Here: the judge has allowed all articles submitted as evidence, regardless of time limitations in the sedition law. Bizarrely, one of the articles is a commentary describing the use of the archaic sedition offense as a form of lawfare. You can get nailed for calling lawfare ‘lawfare’.

Even by NatSec-trial standards this is becoming grotesque, with the prosecution virtually implying that the editors attempted to cause rather than report political controversy and civil strife. The allegations (drawing on Su’s translation) include publishing articles that: promoted the ‘unlawful beliefs’ (SCMP uses ‘illegal ideologies’) of political candidates; beautified/glamorized ‘criminal’ dissidents in exile; tried to ‘reignite conflicts that had turned cold’; and smearing the NatSec Law. 

Standard report mentions other evidence against Stand News: the publication had a ‘political’ stance (‘commitment to democracy, human rights, freedom and the rule of law’), and it received a surge in donations during 2019 from readers who shared the stance. The SCMP quotes the prosecution as saying…

Stand News published feature stories on public figures such as unlawful activists, absconded criminals and wanted suspects…

Where are the crimes here? At this rate, the Mainland charge of ‘picking quarrels’ is just around the corner.

And 18 pan-dems pleading not guilty to ‘conspiracy to commit subversion’ (trying to win an election) will have to wait until after Lunar New Year for the trial to start. That’s nearly two years after their original arrest. It will ‘hopefully’ conclude by summer. No jury, of course. The system meanwhile seems to require others who have pleaded guilty – many in jail ever since being charged – to wait out the trial before their sentencing. Is this process or punishment?

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Meanwhile, New York and London are ‘sparingly promoted’

The ‘unsparingly promoted’ Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Hub-Zone Summit starts tomorrow. Some confusion as to whether the Financial Secretary himself will make it following a positive Covid test. As the Standard editorial points out, senior Mainland officials are not attending, and a few top international bankers have dropped out. Plus there might even be a Number 8 Signal to rain on the parade. 

Maybe one of the speakers or attendees will announce something mind-blowing. Otherwise, the whole event seems to be about the Hong Kong government convincing itself the city is bouncing back, and a bunch of foreign financiers hoping to convince Beijing to continue letting them do business in China.

While local officials try to prove the old Hong Kong is back, weird court cases continue. Margaret Ng argues that the Societies Ordinance was intended to fight triads, not relief funds overseen by 90-year-old Cardinals. Another Societies Ordinance case involves unionists. And Audrey Eu says the prosecution in the Stand News case is exceeding time limits on prosecutions for ‘seditious’ publications. Stay tuned to see how the NatSec judges decide. (Good thread on the Stand News case.)

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Settling in…

…at my new place. Don’t want to go through that again anytime soon. 

Why people stay in NatSec/Covid-era Hong Kong: some don’t mind the NatSec/Covid crap; some are tied by family/work commitments; and of course many lack the opportunity or means to move. But I have just discovered another reason: the prospect of packing and unpacking is too nightmarish to face.

A few links…

CY Leung focuses the minds of senior civil servants who probably sit in the first two categories.

HKFP op-ed on NatSec judges apparently reciting CCP slogans.

Samuel Bickett on the Hong Kong financial summit thing, starting in just a few days. (The government seems to wish it had made it illegal to encourage a boycott.)

A breezily written Spectator piece predicting a Chinese invasion of Taiwan…

…to have law and order, Deng knew he needed to keep the political turnover in Beijing moving along at a healthy clip. No more maniac geezers like Mao hanging on until the country turned into a giant communist revival tent. Two terms and you’re done.

An ultra-long thread on CCP influence operations in the UK.

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Moving…

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An early weekend…

HKDC issues a report on international business’s role in Hong Kong, calling on companies not to attend the forthcoming ‘financial summit’ in the city. Weird thing: I can’t access the site on plain-vanilla browsers (as of 6.30am HK time), but I can on the VPN-like Tor. Hmmm…

Summary from Samuel Bickett.

Moving house, so that’s probably it around here until next week. Some weekend reading…

More banning of films in Hong Kong, this time a documentary about migrant workers in Taiwan because it featured scenes of a protest. (The protest was outside the Presidential offices in Taipei, which could have been a problem with NatSec censors – since how can China’s Taiwan Province of China have a President?)

And Jimmy Lai found guilty of what must be the lamest-ever ‘criminal fraud’ case (using 0.16% of a premises outside the lease conditions).

Converting temporary Covid facilities into temporary housing is not ‘cost-effective’, the city’s leader says, owing to refurbishment work required.

Why not just let them out at peppercorn rents to anyone, allow them be used for any reasonable residential/retail/business use – and see what happens?

Oiwan Lam on the aesthetics of NatSec Hong Kong…

Designers have to play safe by avoiding politically sensitive colors and icons. One design strategy is to avoid local expressions and symbols and pick up mainland Chinese references. Hence, communication has become less effective, but subversive overtones continue circulating, very often, in the form of mockery.

You don’t think of the EU or business chambers as sources of critical comment on China – but a Joerg Wuttke interview is an exception…

The most important fact is the President’s absolute, unrestricted power. Xi Jinping has managed to de facto lock out the entire Party faction of the Youth League. This was not to be expected on this scale. He has practically tailored the Politburo to himself and filled it with loyalists. A man may now become Prime Minister who previously had no national job at all and who has not grown into the office as Vice Premier … We have to state clearly today: Ideology is once again taking precedence over the interests of the economy in China.

…We have to get away from the idea that China’s policy is still basically tailored to economic growth. In his speech to the Party Congress, the President mentioned Karl Marx fifteen times. The word ‘market’ appeared only three times.

More from Journal of Democracy: forget the economy – the new priorities are ‘security and struggle’. A must-read…

…increasing state repression of the private sector, and will unquestionably continue. The intention is clear: Although China depends on the market economy in order to prosper, certain social, legal, and political requirements of market activities may challenge the one-party dictatorship.

The Guardian on China’s drift to isolation.

A China Daily op-ed by a professor at the Institute for Taiwan Studies, Tsinghua University says…

…it is necessary to eliminate the political, cultural and material foundations of “Taiwan independence” and establish a legal system that reflects the central government’s authority, so as to make national reunification permanent.

Singapore nanny state’s gruesome pre-execution photos.

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15,180.69

At end-June 1997, the HSI stood at 15,196.

Via Geremie Barme, Wu Guoguang’s classier-than-average reading of Hu Jintao’s escorted departure from the final meeting of the CCP 20th Congress (scroll down to The Theatrical Denouement of a One-man Show)…

On Twitter people have been asking if anyone can lip read. My response was to say that the bar for studying Chinese politics really is being raised pretty high: up until now people were supposed to be expert in facial micro expressions, now that was no longer enough – you need to be able to lip read, too. If this trend continues I’ll soon be out of a job.

…what was truly extraordinary was the fact that neither Xi Jinping nor Li Keqiang made any effort to extend even the most rudimentary courtesy to their former superior. Neither said anything to Hu Jintao, nor for that matter did they make any attempt to explain to congress representatives what was happening. 

…Instead, what we saw was all those men who had been elevated to power by Hu Jintao like Li Keqiang, Wang Yang and Hu Chunhua, as well as many others, sitting there nervously – no expressions on their faces, no sign of understanding for Hu or sympathy … wooden men, frozen and dumbfounded, witnessing it all in stoney silence.

For fans of more intriguing theories, ASPI Strategist quotes exiled dissident Wei Jingsheng.

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Preparing to move

Only going a hundred yards or so, but getting over 50% more space for the same rent. A late 1950s block on Robinson Road – must be one of the first high-rises (12 floors) built there. They designed residential developments differently in those days: squarer, more efficient floorplan, but fewer windows (a misnamed ‘lightwell’ serves the kitchen/bathroom area); vast lobby and semi-outdoor hallways. How much bigger could apartments be if the government went back to more basic building codes? 

You can cancel electricity and gas accounts online in a minute. But the government-owned water supply? You can do it by fax.

Some stuff from the weekend…

Playing devil’s advocate, I wondered if the Hong Kong government’s explanation (short press release) for banning the Batman film could be sincere, given the lack of extensive whining. But the whining did indeed happen. And so the credibility of the official line suffers that much more.

On the subject of ‘not very convincing’, we will probably never know the exact reason for the graceless – but apparently unscripted – removal of an elderly and reluctant Hu Jintao from the final session of the 20th CCP Congress. Xinhua’s ‘health’ explanation is as obvious as it is weak – but the memes in the following retweets are hilarious. The penalty for having such an opaque system is that no-one will ever believe you. (Consider the context of Xi’s previous criticism of Hu’s time in office.)

My theory: Xi objected to the famously characterless former leader acting as a black hole and sucking up his own dazzling charisma.

More witty memes.

Justice Russell Coleman, while ruling on vaccination exemptions, goes somewhat off-subject and skewers the government’s overweening Covid regulations. Intro from David Webb, plus link to more snark, such as…

It may not require particular cynicism to think that the attempt to move away from the word “invalidity” is an attempt to minimize the Decision’s potential conflict with section 17.

… It is public knowledge that on 3 to 5 October 2022, a legally-qualified legislator raised the question whether the Secretary had legal authority to invalidate the MECs, and asked that there might be an explanation of the legal grounds said to be relied upon.

[para 28] It is unfortunate that the legislator subsequently faced criticism for raising the question, as though to do so were somehow an attack on the Government.  First, the question has now been held to be at least strongly arguable and so might be thought to be one properly raised and addressed. Secondly, the question does not identify a choice between being ‘pro-Government’ or ‘anti-Government’; it identifies a distinction between what is lawful and what is unlawful. 

More youngsters sentenced to prison by a NatSec court for messages having ‘no historical or legal basis’ and which ‘incite subversion’. According to the judge, their 30-36-month terms reflect the offense’s ‘minor nature’.

An extra little morsel of weirdness: compulsory testing notices are still a thing, and all manner of public-sector staff are getting roped in to help enforce them – harassing residents entering and leaving designated housing blocks. In the latest example, a posse raised from the Working Family and Student Financial Assistance Agency and the University Grants Committee Secretariat descend on Elegance Garden, Tai Po. And yes, they slapped HK$10,000 fines on several people.

Are employees of obscure public bodies drafted because there aren’t enough regular Health Department people on call? Or is it a way to force more of the bureaucracy to take part in order to spread the culpability and opprobrium?

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That’s not ‘Central Business District’ products

Hong Kong to ban CBD products. I remember talking to some grifter who was distributing non-active cannabis-derived energy bars or something, and he blithely said ‘they have no THC in them’, and I obviously thought ‘so what’s the point?’ But as with coconut butter, turmeric, gluten-free flax seeds and other fads, a certain type of gullible neurotic thinks it’s a miracle food. 

What are Hong Kong officials thinking? It can’t be plain everyday puritanism because by definition these products are devoid of fun. I guess they just hate the idea

CBD will be placed in the same category as heroin, cocaine, methamphetamine and more than 200 other substances deemed as “dangerous drugs,” with users facing a hefty jail term.

(They managed to find 200? And what do the manufacturers do with the left-over THC?)

Some weekend reading…

A China Media Project explanation of what Xi Jinping’s much-vaunted ‘report’ to the CCP Congress was about – in particular, why there was no mention of current events like unemployment, the property market, zero-Covid or Ukraine.

ASPI Strategist on Beijing’s determination to take Taiwan as an ideological construct

…a critique of Beijing’s Taiwan policy and ideology has become a necessary step. Reducing the future of Taiwan to great-power competition makes it harder to see that Beijing’s Taiwan policy is an ideologically fixated assertion of party power that is disconnected from reality and points China towards potential catastrophe. China is certainly not the first great power to set itself on such a path and there are no easy options for the international community in response, but a clear focus on Beijing’s agency must be the starting point.

HK Free Press op-ed on the Hong Kong part of Xi Jinping’s report…

The vast majority of those arrested during the “chaos” were charged under existing laws with existing offences and dealt with in the regular courts. The contribution of the national security law to the proceedings was to destroy Hong Kong’s flourishing civil society, before the ensuing changes to the election system destroyed its political life.

Also from ASPI, a massive analysis of China’s online propaganda efforts…

The frontier accounts we examine in this report were predominantly created in 2020–21 and feature content that closely hews to CCP narratives, but their less polished presentation has a more authentic feel that conveys a false sense of legitimacy and transparency about China’s frontier regions that party-state media struggle to achieve. For viewers, the video content appears to be the creation of the individual influencers, but is in fact … produced with the help of special influencer-management agencies known as multi-channel networks (MCNs).

A quick example – two ‘sisters’ from Xinjiang – here.

Noahpinion is one of those all-purpose bores who clog up your Twitter timeline, but his article on why Xi isn’t all he’s made out to be is amusing…

Some are saying that Xi’s ascendance represents a return to China’s old imperial system, or a reprise of Mao. But I see something a bit different — a nostalgic Baby Boomer kicking against modernity and yearning for a semi-imagined past greatness.

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Desperate times, desperate measures

Hong Kong’s annual Policy Address ritual is somewhat less mind-numbing than usual, taking place at a time when even officials are implicitly acknowledging that the one-time Pearl of the Orient is spiraling down the vortex to Perpetual Doo-Doo Land. Not that they’re going to do much about it.

For a quick summary, a former District Council covers several key features…

…local transport infrastructure plans? A disaster … more irrelevant paths to the outskirts of urban areas.

Full reports at HKFP. I’ll skip the stuff on housing – basically more plans to increase supply without addressing the big land-use policy mess, while seizing excuses to spend on infrastructure.

Most media stories focus on measures to attract (ie, reverse the outflow of) ‘talent’ (ie people). Since we can’t/won’t make the city a better place for everyone to live in, the emphasis is on targeting highly qualified workers in specific trendy-sounding industries by offering visa-free entry and even homes and subsidies in hub-zones. Are international tech professionals earning US$318,000 a year going to be lured by handouts? Or will they consider such desperate-sounding initiatives insulting?

The ideas don’t even make much sense. The plan to refund newcomers’ property stamp duty is simply an attempt to prop up real-estate prices. Let’s attract more people by making housing more expensive!

Reuters identifies scrapping dumb Covid policies as the obvious solution to the brain drain…

…Hong Kong’s mid-year population dipped 1.6% to 7.29 million – the steepest year-on-year drop on record. In contrast, rival banking and investment centre Singapore notched up a 3.4% increase over the same period.

…Hong Kongers are still subject to a myriad of rules that even health experts deem to be ineffective. That includes having to “self-monitor” for three days on arrival – the so-called “0+3” inbound travel arrangement – arbitrary caps of 12 people per table in a restaurant, six in a bar, 240 attendees in a banquet, and 30 in a tour group; indoor and outdoor mask mandates; enforced isolation for positive cases; and mandatory testing to go to schools, bars and other places.

(The government is counting on its forthcoming ‘financial summit’ for global bankers as a way to ‘prove’ Hong Kong is back. The word is that attendees will all be put in the Four Seasons hotel, and will still have to quarantine if they test positive. Unless – and I wish I could make up stuff this crazy – they have a private jet, in which case they can fly straight back to the disease-ridden international financial hub whence they came. With special transport arrangements to the airport.)

But, Reuters reminds us, it’s not just about replacing expats…

The city’s labour force is shrinking, with the 20- to 24-year-old cohort plunging an alarming 15% in the second quarter from a year earlier.

Which brings us to the other main theme of the Policy Address – relentless patriotic NatSec integration. A HK$60 million plan to strengthen national identity among kindergarten kids, tougher laws against insulting the flag, and what looks like the abolition of District Councils as the democratically elected local bodies we once knew. Plus the Article 23 NatSec law to increase penalties for sedition-type thought crimes, and yet more urging that we abandon the whole concept of ‘Hong Kong’ and embrace ‘Greater Bay Area’.

The UK gives residency rights to Hongkongers born after 1997.

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