Big Lychee, Various Sectors

Let’s not forget that the Stand News prosecution also dragged Kafka’s The Trial into the proceedings…

In another article, a literary blogger called the city “Kafkaesque,” saying more ridiculous reforms would take place after the implementation of the national security law, including the introduction of secret police, secret trials and secret crimes.

Ng said those claims were groundless since “secret police are not a reality, crimes are explicitly defined in our laws, and the idea of dying in prison is purely fictional.”

Chung said it is common to cite literature in opinion articles, and the blogger used novelist Franz Kafka’s work as a metaphor to express his concerns about the national security law.

“But this article could incite hatred towards the national security law, do you agree?” Ng asked.

“No,” Chung replied.

These NatSec cases are humiliating to Hong Kong – hence the outraged press statements demanding that overseas officials stop slandering the legal system. You have to wonder how long it will be before they start holding them in secret, to hide such absurdities as criminalizing references to novels about totalitarian regimes.

Chow Hang-tung’s mitigation in full.

Australian courts also having embarrassing problems…

Court today was crazy. The NSW Police official Chinese translator tried to argue that my “Fuck Xi Jinping” protest sign basically meant that I wanted to have sex with Xi. They wanted a literal translation. BRUH, HOW.

Not interested in the movies side of the Oscars – I have yet to see Sound of Music and Titanic – but hopefully I will get round to EEAAO some time. Meanwhile, a great thread contrasting Janet Yang/Donnie Yen and Quan Ke Huy/Michelle Yeoh.  

Wouldn’t jailing people for saying Hong Kong has become like 1984 rather prove their point? 

The Stand News trial enters a sort of meta hyperreality, with the prosecutor unwittingly making the defendants’ case by zeroing in on the dystopian novel, while the judge says he’s never read it.

George Orwell’s estate must love NatSec-era Hong Kong.

More NatSec from the last few days… Hong Kong’s national security police arrest Elizabeth Tang’s younger sister and Albert Ho’s brother – Tang’s lawyer – on suspicion of conspiracy to pervert the course of justice ‘allegedly removing items related to Tang’s national security case’. They’ve also detained two women over alleged ‘incitement to secession’. And Chow Hang-tung and two others get four-month sentences for not handing data over to the police…

[Defender Philip] Dykes said that the defendants found themselves “in a unique position,” as while they were being convicted for being a foreign agent, the identity of the foreign organisation was not known to them.

…In her mitigation submission, Chow said that the Alliance was not a foreign agent, and that “nothing has emerged in this year long ordeal that proves otherwise.”

“To sentence us in such circumstances is about punishing people for defending the truth,” Chow said.

[Judge] Law interrupted Chow’s submission on several occasions, saying that what the barrister said was “irrelevant to mitigation,” and that the court must not be “a back door” for expressing political views.

Report from courtroom here.

The government’s sensitivity to criticism on rule of law in Hong Kong reaches a new level of ultra-touchiness as it hits back at an EU official’s ‘scandalizing’ of the city’s criminal justice process…

A spokesman for the HKSAR Government said, “As guaranteed by the Basic Law and the Hong Kong Bill of Rights, all defendants charged with a criminal offence have the right to and will undergo a fair trial by the judiciary. The courts decide cases strictly in accordance with the evidence and all applicable laws. Cases will never be handled any differently owing to the profession, political beliefs or background of the persons involved.”

…Any person’s attempt to undermine the prosperity and stability of Hong Kong by slandering the rule of law in Hong Kong will only expose his own weakness and faulty arguments and be doomed to fail. The HKSAR Government strongly urges the relevant EU official to immediately stop acting against the international law and basic norms of international relations, and interfering in the Hong Kong affairs and China’s internal affairs at large.”   

The HK Sports Federation/Olympic Committee and the government come down hard on the HK Ice Hockey Association over the latest anthem shock horror outrage. The sports body complains that the IHA…

…has been evasive … and it is therefore strongly believed that [the association] did not perform the duty in accordance with the guidelines,” it said in a statement.

The federation also said the association breached rules by sending a WhatsApp message to athletes about what to do if the anthem isn’t played correctly, when the rules say a proper briefing should be held.

More links from the weekend…

Good CNN report on that weird Hong Kong problem where there’s loads of underused land but the government says – in effect – there isn’t any, at least for housing…

Public housing plans are usually subject to years of red tape, but in the case of the quarantine camps the government managed to suddenly “find” around 80 hectares of land and build 40,000 pre-fabricated metal units in a matter of months.

…Francis Law, who was sent to Penny’s Bay in late 2022, said that while simple, the facilities were adequate to meet a person’s basic needs and would offer an attractive temporary option to those on public housing lists.

“If the government rents the units out for around HK$2,000 to HK$3,000 per month [$254 to $382] and arranges a bus route to the nearest train station, I think it would attract a lot of applicants, even if it’s far flung from the main central business district,” he told CNN.

Wait for the excuses about why these units can’t be used for housing. 

Video of Xi Jinping being applauded in the NPC while casting his vote in the ‘election’ that unanimously confirmed his third term as President. (Turn volume down – they clap loudly.)

The Guardian on Li Keqiang’s decline and exit…

Wang [Juntao, former friend] said it pained him to watch the once quick-witted, outspoken and independent-thinking intellectual deliver his last government work report to the rubber-stamp parliament on Monday. In the report, Li talked flatly on the government’s performance in an hour-long speech that lauded Xi Jinping as “the core of the party leadership” seven times.

…[Academic Steve] Tsang said Li’s departure would “mark the end of collective leadership”. Dominated by Xi’s loyal allies, elite politics from now on “will be guided by how to please the boss most”.

The slogans have always meant something: long essay by Tanner Greer on Xi Jinping’s retreat from Deng Xiaoping’s opening and reform philosophy, as encapsulated by a shift in focus of slogans away from economic growth towards national security…

But it is still significant that he—or his agents—are trying at all. The Party is ready to declare that development must be balanced with security; it is prepared to state that the international environment no longer presents a period of opportunity for growth and development. The Party is not yet ready to walk back the central tenet of Deng Xiaoping’s reforms. Yet the fact that a formula once enshrined as the guiding principle for the next century of party life is now being debated suggests that we are moving quickly into a fundamentally new era. Powerful interests are attempting to reorient the Party away from wealth and the marketplace. Chinese leaders no longer have confidence that economic integration and economic development have the same historical power that they once did. In Xi’s new era, the Party must rely on different tools to build the world of their desires. 

A short but interesting dictionary on Beijing’s international discourse terminology – Decoding China.

A month or so later than usual, Dan Wang’s annual monumental letter – China in 2022 and the future…

It’s time to level set. China’s growth prospects are off track, but the country retains huge strengths. How do we balance everything? I think that a fair assessment should acknowledge these five propositions. First, business can still be exciting as China continues broad catch-up growth that creates flourishing in particular sectors, even if economic headwinds are stronger too. Second, China’s cities continue to be nicer places to live in (especially Shanghai—Beijingers can ignore this part), offering better provision of parks, healthcare, and retail. Third, doomers have wrongly predicted the collapse of China for 30 years. Fourth, Xi has centralized considerable power, and over the past decade has tightened limits not just on freedom of speech, but increasingly on freedom of thought. And fifth, though cities are more pleasant, a small risk of catastrophe threatens to overturn one’s life.

…Aging autocrats turn easily cranky. It’s especially bad since factional struggle is built into the Leninist system: Xi will likely never stop feeling paranoid even if he has surrounded himself with sycophants. So I think the party-state will continue to make unforced errors. It has, after all, upset many countries with gratuitous insults. And it has managed to pull off the impossible: blowing away China’s enormous stock of human capital. China has superb entrepreneurs and artists who could bring the national glory that Xi craves only if they were allowed to do their creative work. And even any high schooler could be a more persuasive propagandist than the Ministry of Foreign Affairs if they were allowed a platform to speak. But there is so much ruination among Marxist-Leninists, who cannot suffer that there are areas outside of the party’s control. The party in recent years have sequentially alienated people inclined to be more friendly: foreign businesses, European governments, domestic artists and entrepreneurs. I bet these unforced errors will continue.

The latest in the Stand News case – ex-editor Chung responds to prosecutor’s question on whether a piece by journalist Allan Au on imprisoned campaigner Liu Xiaobo was misleading and thus potentially seditious…

“You can say [Au’s] judgements are wrong, or go as far as saying that the universal values he has been upholding must give way to national security or other interests under Hong Kong’s new circumstances, but I think you cannot slander his intention as being to excite hatred, or people’s disaffection of the government,” Chung said.

NatSec cops arrest Lee Lee Cheuk-yan’s wife Elizabeth Tang Yin-ngor – outside the prison where she was visiting him.

HKFP report…

Tang was the target of reports by Beijing-controlled local media outlet Ta Kung Pao in September 2021, when the newspaper accused her of receiving funding from foreign organisations as a board member of labour rights advocacy group Asia Monitor Resource Centre.

Thread on her background here…

The alleged offence is “colluding with foreign forces to endanger national security”, a police source said. The offence carries up to life in jail under #NSL. So far the offence has only been used in the #JimmyLai and #AppleDaily case.

More on her background in the Standard report…

Pro-Beijing newspaper Ta Kung Pao reported in September 2021 that Tang served as director of Asia Monitor Resource Centre, a group that has received HK$118 million funding from institutions in the United States, Germany and Norway to sponsor the labor movement in Asia.

…In response, the center said it was not a subsidiary unit of any of the organizations.

It said: “AMRC started its mission in 1968. We have been working for the labor rights of grassroots workers across Asia, particularly on occupational health and safety since then.

After the above, this is probably superfluous, but anyway – Bloomberg op-ed on Hong Kong’s not-fooling-anyone new normal…

The [Hello HK] marketing push — which celebrates colonial-era historic attractions such as the Peak Tram and features Cantopop stars who were popular before the 1997 return to Chinese sovereignty — resembles what you might expect if you had engaged China’s state broadcaster to make a promotional video about Hong Kong as it was before the Communist Party decided to erase the city’s autonomy. That place no longer exists.

In a similar vein, though in the format of a think tank paper, an Atlantic Council report on how or whether overseas businesses can reduce the risks of operating in NatSec/international sanctions-era Hong Kong… 

The National Security Law created a parallel system of authority operating both behind and above Hong Kong’s system of government established by the Basic Law and the Sino-British Joint Declaration of 1984. This new structure permits a broad interpretation of the definition of “national security,” leaving individuals and businesses with few options to challenge the law’s reach.

The (long but interesting) paper concludes with recommendations on mitigating risk – including that overseas companies improve collective lobbying efforts…

The business community should speak collectively, and approach outreach to Hong Kong authorities as a political campaign, rather than a more traditional government relations effort. One of the most significant elements of leverage foreign businesses hold over Hong Kong authorities and Beijing is the fact that Hong Kong must protect its own public image as a major global financial center.  

Nice idea – but that is not Beijing’s priority.

Some weekend reading…

A link to Singapore’s white paper on its Covid response (‘What we did well’, ‘What we could have done better’), plus comment from Dr Owens, who points out that some aspects of Hong Kong’s response were quite good – but officialdom would rather undermine that by insisting everything was scientific and perfect.

Which brings us rather neatly to China Media Project’s examination of how Mainland expert opinion on Covid was dragged by politics…

But as controls were suddenly eliminated in December, even as the government seemed to have neglected the most basic preparations, Zhong Nanshan changed his tune — and set off marching in the opposite direction.

…In a clear reversal of the government’s previous fear-mongering over the dangers of infection, he added that “Omicron infection is not scary, and 99 percent [of people] can fully recover within 7-10 days.” 

This dramatic about-face in the official messaging was for many Chinese a tacit admission of how ill-considered the policies applied over the previous year had been. It also sapped public confidence in the reliability of the knowledge and advice offered by experts

The Diplomat on China’s new-look wolf-warrior foreign policy…

Deng’s mantra of “hide and bide” has long since been shelved in favor of Xi’s exhortation to “strive for achievements.” Now that has been upgraded to the still more urgent “dare to struggle” amid what Beijing sees as a mounting threat to its continued development.

Foreign Policy on the same subject – blaming everything on the US serves Beijing’s domestic political leadership…

What is striking is how both officials leaned on a recent theme in Chinese politics: Everything is the fault of the United States. Washington has become a convenient scapegoat for anything that doesn’t go Beijing’s way. Economy faltering? Xi claimed in his speech that Western countries, led by the United States, “implemented all-round containment, encirclement, and suppression against us.” Pushback in the South China Sea? Washington has stirred up trouble. Is the public revolting against the elite? The United States must be behind so-called color revolutions.

This mentality is dangerous, not only for international relations but also if China is to have any chance of solving its domestic issues. 

Also from Foreign Policy, what China’s Ukraine peace proposal is really about…

…China’s dead-on-arrival missive has little to do with ending the war in Ukraine and everything to do with setting the conditions to win a future war over Taiwan. Put differently, China recognizes the causes of Russia’s failure in Ukraine are the same that threaten its eventual reunification plans.

Chatham House’s Wu Jie on China’s almost-impossible balancing act…

If China senses that it is increasingly at odds with the entire West, not just with the Americans, it ought to avoid moving any closer to Russia. But wisdom may not prevail. The war in Ukraine continues to test China’s ability to navigate a briar patch of conflicting interests and rapidly changing sentiments. This may be one of its last good chances to gain global recognition and praise for helping to resolve a major international crisis. But Xi will need to be explicit about limits with his “no-limits” friend in the Kremlin.

George Magnus – Is China turning Japanese?…

Part of the reason that Japan got into its economic mess and was slow to get out of it, in spite of corporate titans like Sony and Toyota was that it suffered from high levels of institutional rigidity centred around the close interlocking of the vested interests of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the state, banks, and corporations—the latter grouped as the so-called ‘Keiretsu’ conglomerates. Again, this is very familiar in China, where the Chinese Communist Party state, the state-owned financial system and state-owned enterprises are similarly intertwined and feature significant conflicts of interest as they function as owners, participants, and regulators subject to laws, of course, but not the rule of law or independent scrutiny and adjudication

Today’s must-read, part 1 of Part 1 of Samuel Bickett’s piece on NatSec Judge Kwok Wai-kin, who is presiding in the Stand News trial despite having been suspended from political cases in 2020…

…after he praised a defendant who stabbed three peaceful protesters, then compared the victims to terrorists.

From the intro…

In a city where anti-establishment speech is heavily suppressed, [former Stand News editor] Chung’s eloquent defense of the free press has garnered public praise and exposed the prosecutor questioning him, Laura Ng, as inept.

Yet throughout Chung’s testimony, the prosecution has violated the defendants’ rights by producing, day-after-day, hundreds of documents that it never gave the defense—a violation of common law and the Prosecution Code which, in egregious cases, warrants halting the proceedings permanently. But each time Ng has revealed another set of unproduced materials, the judge in the case, Kwok Wai-Kin, has quickly dismissed objections from defense counsel. Over and over, he has not only ordered the trial to proceed, but even allowed the withheld documents to be used to cross-examine Chung.

How or why have some civil servants and judges turned into zealous Beijing loyalists in recent years? They are not from religiously devout ‘red’ backgrounds. Some could be under pressure (if, say, higher powers have dirt on them). Some may have a chip on their shoulder about perceived past slights (eg cops without college degrees being sneered at by snooty AOs). In this case, Bickett thinks it just comes down to career opportunism.

Referenced in the piece – last year’s US Congressional commission list of Hong Kong prosecutors involved in political cases.

On cultural matters: SurrealHK – aka Tommy Fung – does the municipal waste depot art gallery abolition; and Wang Dan joins the calls against Donny Yen’s whatever-it-is in this year’s ever-tedious Oscars.

The spirit of the ‘two sessions’: bored Hong Kong delegates, desperate Hong Kong reporters, inane quotes.

Newly appointed NPC deputy Frank Chan says the Hong Kong government’s priority is to ‘win back people’s hearts by telling good stories about the nation’…

“The challenge now we are facing would be the return of people’s hearts,” he said. “By saying so, we need to tell more about the truth about our country, the status that we are in…”

OK, here’s a good story. After Chan was promoted from government engineering jobs to policymaking head of housing and transport, he said on various occasions: bringing the cost of housing down would be unfair on the middle class who already owned property; reducing car use was undesirable as people have small apartments and enjoy having private space in their vehicle: and the HK-Shenzhen high-speed rail link would be profitable from the start. The story’s happy ending: as an NPC deputy, he now has zero input into policy.

Back to the Stand News trial. I think I’ve got this right: the prosecution is accusing the outlet of committing criminal sedition by publishing pieces (written by other people) that might incite hatred of the authorities by claiming that the authorities restrict freedom of expression. There’s a serious irony-deficit here.

I knew this was going to happen, and didn’t even have enough time to predict it. Sanitation workers gather art (loosely defined) from garbage and hang it on their facility’s walls, even attracting visitors; government tells them to remove it…

The workers said that it did not bother them that they had to throw the paintings away, as “they were rubbish anyway…”

Along with scores of ‘ethnic minorities’ sporting improbably exotic costumes, dozens of billionaires sit in China’s National People’s Congress and CPPCC. Some, inevitably, are from Hong Kong (think property tycoons or their kids). Attending the ‘two sessions’ is a tedious chore for them, and some have been known to sneak out to zip back home for a day. 

It’s a bore not least because delegates have no input into how China is run (in a system that eschews separation of powers, the parliament is ceremonial, with no debate or knife-edge votes). For the relatively lowly, selection as a delegate offers prestige; but for the plutocrats, it’s a burden that cannot be refused – one of the obligations of the co-opted. Now, the FT reports…

Beijing is pressing Hong Kong’s political elite to give up their western passports in order to be selected for the Chinese parliament…

Most of this (business, not ‘political’) elite would be delighted not to have to attend the ‘two sessions’, but to reject membership would be an unthinkable insult to Beijing. At the same time, they would be unnerved to lose their UK/US/Canadian passports (which provide easier travel and – more to the point – an emergency bolthole, though China does not recognize dual nationality). 

This is about forcing privileged pretend-patriots to choose: are you loyal to the motherland or not? One of those situations where we can’t help but sympathize with staunchly pro-Beijing ex-CE CY Leung…

During a national security education event last month, Leung said those refusing to give up their documents were “making up nonsense excuses”.

The trial of Chow Hang-tung et al of the Hong Kong Alliance for refusing to hand over information ended Friday with a guilty verdict from the NatSec judge. Guardian report here…

…the alliance was accused of being a “foreign agent” for an unnamed group, after allegedly receiving HK$20,000 ($2,547).

This was a case in which no-one – not even the judge – was allowed to know exactly what the prosecution’s evidence was. For a good explanation, see Reuters correspondent’s thread – includes links to the police/prosecution documents and a video flick-through of redacted pages.

Women workers cancel a gathering after police claim violent elements might join in and the organizers will be legally responsible (eg, appearing in a NatSec court) for such outrages as forbidden slogans on banners. Scores of cops turn up anyway (video) – and even occupied Lion Rock. Someone is paranoid about a cancelled women workers’ march. Thread on how police now dissuade protests…

…this tactic is pretty much foolproof – who is going to risk un-bailed NSL jail for a march of any stripe?

Some links…

A (probably paywalled) WSJ editorial warns would-be tourists to think twice about taking up Hong Kong’s offer of free tickets…

Since 2020 authorities have removed a famous sculpture, forced the closure of a museum, banned films that offend Beijing’s political sensibilities, and arrested a pro-democracy pop star under the national security law. Hong Kong has also shut down two pro-democracy publications and arrested journalists, including publisher Jimmy Lai. Will the free ticket include a prison tour?

…Visitors who take the free ticket should beware that if they’ve ever said or written anything critical of Hong Kong or Beijing, Mr. Lee’s security forces will be watching.

The ‘two sessions’ snooze-fest is in progress. Might as well learn all about ‘Chinese-style modernization’…

On the eve of the NPC, the official nightly newscast Xinwen Lianbo (新闻联播) opened with an immediate mention of “Chinese-style modernization,” noting that Xi Jinping had deemed it “an important theoretical innovation emerging from the 20th National Congress of the CCP.”

Video interview with Alliance Canada Hong Kong executive director Cherie Wong on Chinese influence operations in Canada

Emerging markets guru Mark Mobius complains that he can’t get his money out of China.

Former Philippine Navy Rear Admiral on China’s grayzone ‘insurgency’ in the South China Sea…

Xi’s insurgency has a flaw, and it can be overcome if the region works together.

As if Southeast Asian countries could ever do that.

Sports officials again demand that Google change its search results so Hong Kong’s anthem (ie China’s) ranks higher than Glory to Hong Kong. Chances are that the net impact of making such a fuss is that the algorithms send even more Google searches to the homegrown protest tune. (On the bright side, we all learn – to our mild surprise – that this city has an ice hockey team.) Ignoring the incident is obviously not an option.

The same sort of eagerness leads education authorities decide that aspiring school principals must have a ‘sense of national identity’. (How do you prove/display it? Have a ‘Xi For Me’ bumper sticker on your car?) Perhaps more interesting is the qualities that are no longer needed for teachers to train as school heads…

…among them … “political astuteness,” determination to “protect the best interest of school members” and “resourcefulness and decisiveness” when working with a team.

I guess the ‘political astuteness’ implied some sort of impartiality, and ‘protecting school members’ could have involved respecting pro-democracy staff/students’ views. Not sure what was wrong with ‘resourcefulness and decisiveness’ – do patriots tend to lack them?

Some weekend reading (possibly paywalled, but at least you have quotes)…

NYT on Beijing’s rewriting of China’s time of Covid…

It was a “miracle in human history.” Every measure the government imposed was rooted in science, supported by the masses – and, ultimately, “completely correct.”

Washington Post on the reasons behind China’s plummeting birthrate…

In 2022, China had only about half as many births as just six years earlier… That sea change in childbearing predated the coronavirus pandemic, and it appears to be part of broader shock, for marriage in China is also in free fall.

Since 2013 — the year Xi completed his ascent to power — the rate of first marriages in China has fallen by well over half. Headlong flights from both childbearing and marriage are taking place in China today.

Nikkei Asia on other countries’ warming relations with Taiwan… 

The increasingly divided geopolitical landscape — especially since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a year ago — has accelerated Taiwan’s emergence from the diplomatic erasure imposed upon it by democratic countries who once feared Beijing’s wrath. It is the biggest setback in decades for China’s attempts to isolate Taiwan, and Beijing is not happy.

…”Taiwan has benefited from China’s ‘wolf warrior’ diplomacy,” said former Chinese diplomat Chen Yonglin, who defected to Australia in 2005. “Xi has openly shown his ambitions, and his war preparations are bringing the U.S., the U.K., Japan and Australia together. When these countries change their attitudes, other countries are likely to follow. It’s a great opportunity for Taiwan to seize.”

Some good news: out of over 7 million Hongkongers, a mere 1 million are distressed/deranged/massively pissed by renovation works in nearby apartments. So 6 million aren’t. Even more amazing – only 200,000 flats per year in the city undergo major jackhammering and drilling. Pity they’re mostly in my neighbourhood…

Lawmaker Tony Tse Wai-chuen asked why contractors would be allowed five days’ consecutive noise, whereas in Singapore the maximum is three days.

EPD’s Samuel Chui said the government “did not want the renovation trade to be unduly affected while we are starting the scheme,” but promised there would be a review of the limits in the future.

Obviously we can’t have people being ‘unduly affected’ by new laws. Ask the 47 pan-democrats whose NatSec case continues with (among other things) a judge advising those defendants who have actually been given bail not to engage in dangerous sports lest they hurt themselves and waste public resources if the trial is delayed. Some US lawmakers demand that the prosecutors be sanctioned.

The SCMP goes into contrived righteous anger mode over yet another playing of the ‘wrong’ Hong Kong anthem at a distant and obscure sports event, thundering…

…one has to ask why the wrong tune was played in the first place, and whether those responsible for preventing mistakes could have done more. Answers are eagerly awaited.

Oh yes. Sitting on the edge of my seat in anticipation of finding out.

So that’s what those people look like! For the first time since July 29, 2020, you can legally go mask-free outdoors in Hong Kong. It remains illegal to wear a mask (under certain circumstances), with the Chief Executive explaining…

“The mask mandate was for public health matters. As for the mask ban, we will review it at a suitable time. At this moment, we will not handle it.”

Some quotes from the public here…

Another woman told RTHK that it’s time for her to “take out all her lipsticks”.

But … [a] student surnamed So said she will keep wearing a mask as she doesn’t want to let others see her, concerns shared by a woman surnamed Chung who said she was “a bit scared”.

Despite months of criticism from citizens and experts, the deciding factor seems to have been Macau’s decision to scrap its mask mandate just a week ago.

Did anyone ever work out why Health Secretary Lo Chung-mau was so obsessed with keeping the mask mandate?

Pretty damning chart showing how Singapore has leapt ahead of Hong Kong in per-capita GDP. There’s a clear post-Covid spurt in Singapore, which obviously Hong Kong has not had. But the gap has been growing ever since the Asian Financial Crisis, which broke out at exactly the time of the 1997 handover – the Thai Baht plunging on Tung Chee-hwa’s very first day in office. 

You could spend all day pondering possible reasons. Most immigrants into Hong Kong in the last 25 years have been relatively unskilled Mainlanders who became permanent residents, while Singapore attracted a broader range of newcomers, including guest workers to keep its manufacturing sector competitive. Hong Kong’s policymakers focused on pushing housing prices up – distorting the economy in various ways – while Singapore prioritized affordable homes. Hong Kong splurged on massive white-elephant infrastructure projects, which Singapore didn’t. It’s not that Hong Kong’s performance has been bad – but proximity to the fast-growing Mainland economy in the 2000s should have given the city a bigger relative advantage. Instead, Hong Kong failed to maintain the 1980-97 trend growth rate. Ultimately, it must come down to governance.