Big Lychee, Various Sectors

Simplified Chinese characters account for around 5% of the broadly accepted total number (roughly 50,000) of Chinese characters, but more like a third of the most commonly used 5,000 or so. Most readers can infer the meaning of a simplified character from context. It is also easy, using a Chinese word processing app, to convert text between traditional and simplified characters at the touch of a button; each simplified character has just one traditional counterpart. 

The nearest equivalent in English would be attempts to strip spelling down to the basics. In both cases, the reformed method of writing is probably easier to learn. But remove etymology from words. And to many, it just looks ugly. This is the sort of change that has to be imposed. 

A Hong Kong school says it will accept simplified Chinese in examinations. Local parents are unhappy, and local officials also voice their disagreement. And then, a (perhaps predictable) twist: Beijing’s local representatives and media contradict them, and hint that simplified will be the way to go in the future. They seem especially upset because traditional characters remind them of Taiwan…

The [Ta Kung Pao] article ends with a call for the city to “face reality and adjust its mindset” to deepen the city’s integration with the rest of China. While this piece is not a formal order from Beijing, it still suggests that China may be issuing orders for Hong Kong to follow.

Watch local officials change their tune on simplified characters.

Another feature of Mainland life is the use of young women as official or corporate decoration. Airlines and government bodies recruit female ancillary staff for their nubile looks and demeanour. They must be the same height and have the same general appearance. They are trained to walk a certain way, smile a certain way and serve food and drinks with choreographed precision. There are ornamental male assistants as well, but the most famous example is the tea ladies at the NPC (the synchronized figures in crimson). 

And now, the practice comes to Hong Kong…

The SCMP reports…

For months, Kristin Ngai has been practising smiling while biting onto a chopstick at home, ensuring she shows six to eight teeth – the standard required to be one of the 75 volunteer prize presentation assistants from Hong Kong for the National Games this month.

In addition to smiling, the 30-year-old bank clerk said they were also trained for three days to stand, sit and walk in specific ways, as they would be under the spotlight, helping with the presentation of medals as well as guiding athletes onto the stage.

…She also said that, ahead of the Games, volunteers were told to not gain weight so they could fit into the pink gowns that had been tailor-made for them and they should not wear nail polish or have visible tattoos.

“There is also an interesting request,” Ngai said. “We shouldn’t be too tanned, to achieve a more ‘oriental beauty’ complexion. The hair should also be kept quite dark.”

Through two rounds of interviewing, Ngai said she had to introduce herself in Mandarin and was tested on how she would carry trays with bottled water while she walked.

Presumably no South Asians need apply.

China Daily reports increased competition and diversity in December’s LegCo election…

Authorities had received a total of 161 nominations of aspirants vying for one of 90 seats in the upcoming legislature poll in Hong Kong on Dec 7, as the two-week nomination period drew to a close at 5 pm on Thursday.

The nominations, over 20 percent of which are for women — higher than in the last poll — set the stage for contested races across all constituencies, with officials renewing calls to the public to cast their votes.

Following the close of nominations, Legislative Council President Andrew Leung Kwan-yuen said that the candidates are of high quality and that all seats are contested. He urged the public to exercise their right to vote, emphasizing that “every vote counts”.

…senior officials, including Secretary for Justice Paul Lam Ting-kwok, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Algernon Yau Ying-wah, Secretary for the Civil Service Ingrid Yeung Ho Poi-yan, and Secretary for Home and Youth Affairs Alice Mak Mei-kuen, have also been mobilizing legal, business, local, and minority communities through meetings and street outreaches to vote for capable and patriotic legislators and help shape Hong Kong’s future.

The Standard has a list. Not many familiar names – Starry Lee, Holden Chow in the geographical seats. Priscilla, Junius, Rock and Doctor Elizabeth down in the Election Committee bunch.

After having to pay HK$57,000 to the tax department after an intensive audit that found a HK$3,000 discrepancy over a seven-year period, HKFP receives HK$141,000 in donations from its readers.

The LegCo election has no bearing on how Hong Kong is run. A chamber of pro-government ‘all-patriots’ won’t ask hard questions or debate alternative policy approaches, let alone try to stall unpopular measures. But the process and outcome of the heavily staged polls tells us about the authorities’ concerns behind closed doors.

The new body of lawmakers will be quite a bit younger than its predecessor, with few if any members whose public lives predate 1997. Quite a few are likely to be individuals who had no public presence prior to 2019. This is likely to include people with no previous ties to pro-Beijing political groups, and some who have Mainland business and other links. This suggests that the higher powers want a more uniformly reliable pool of people who can be groomed for higher-profile roles in the future. 

The authorities also seem to be seriously concerned about boosting the credibility of both the election and the resulting council. This is an uphill struggle. The shift to an ‘all-patriots’ legislature entailed the introduction of multiple – indeed, superfluous – barriers to candidacy in the form of nomination and screening systems, ensuring only a select few can get on the ballot. Competition and charisma are in short supply. At the same time, the percentage of seats filled by universal suffrage has shrunk.

Officials are trying hard to squeeze a higher turnout from what is inevitably going to be a largely apathetic electorate. The government is encouraging civil servants to vote, and everyone is invited to follow the progress of comely candidate ex-fencer Vivian Kong.

A Reuters piece explains…

Some analysts say Kong’s star allure and fighting spirit will help spotlight an institution criticized as a pro-Beijing echo chamber with little authentic debate, that drew a record low turnout of 30.2% in 2021.

Senior Hong Kong officials have sought to drum up voter participation after the poor previous showing, while major chambers of commerce, several Chinese state-owned enterprises and some Hong Kong companies have urged people to vote.

Telecom operator PCCW said it would provide half a day of paid leave for staffers to cast ballots, local media reported.

“Beijing wants to rejuvenate the profile of candidates through Vivian Kong’s participation, such that more young people will be aware of the election,” said Sonny Lo, a political scientist who has authored several books on Hong Kong politics.

(Don’t call PCCW that day: “All our lines are busy. Please hold for another four hours until our customer service assistant returns from her half-day off.”)

A former HKU professor is given seven years for the manslaughter of his wife, after appealing an earlier sentence of life for murder. As several commentators have pointed out, this is barely more than the six years and nine months many of the HK47, like Long Hair, received for ‘conspiracy to commit subversion’ – participating in a primary election. Several, including Gwyneth Ho, got seven years or more.

Some Wednesday links…

Desmond Shum on China’s ‘bucket of money’…

Since 2020, China’s M1 and M2 have grown by 89% and 49%, while GDP rose only 36%.

…When money supply keeps outrunning GDP and velocity keeps falling, liquidity stops being a policy tool and becomes a structural condition. Each slowdown forces the PBOC to inject more cash just to keep the system afloat. 

…China has become a liquidity superpower trapped in a deflationary economy, sustained by capital controls and public compliance.

Taipei Times op-ed on the CCP’s concept of power…

Even gods are owned by the CCP. Officially, religion is also a wholly-owned subsidiary of the CCP. They claim the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation is an internal Chinese affair and must be administered and approved according to Chinese law.

Constitutionally, the CCP is also the “leadership core” for the “orientation for China’s advanced culture.”

Those are just appetizers; they also wrote in their constitution that they are the “vanguard” of “the Chinese people, and the Chinese nation,” so those are theirs to run as well.

They fear and loathe what they term as “desinification” in Taiwan, where culture can flow and develop naturally — sometimes expanding and deepening traditional Chinese customs and traditions, and sometimes finding whole new directions. Over time this has developed into something unique to Taiwan and individual to the people living here, regardless of whether they consider it “Chinese” or “Taiwanese” or both. Taiwanese do not belong to the CCP, which the CCP views as infuriating and threatening.

“The Chinese people, and the Chinese nation,” are not limited by geography; anyone they deem “Han Chinese” is included. The CCP considers up to 50 million people worldwide to be theirs, including over five million Americans, many of whom have no connection to China whatsoever other than ancestors who arrived in the distant past.

A lecture by Sarah Paine on the historic China-Russia struggle for power. She leaps forward in the chronological narrative, so you better know your stuff.

Felt sorry for the extremely old and frail campaign workers handing out election leaflets, so I now have promo materials for Judy Chan (of Regina Ip’s New People’s Party) and Jeremy Young (Liberal Party) running in HK Island West. And we have a possible answer to the question: what sort of platform do you adopt in an all-patriots election in which all candidates must be pro-government? 

Judy’s slogan is ‘Family-friendly, encouraging childbirth’. This sounds facile, but it does give her an opportunity to differentiate herself. Specifically, she urges the relaxing of restrictions on single women using assisted reproductive technology – which actually puts her at odds with official government policy. Or it would if she hadn’t made sure to say ‘explore the relaxing of…’ She also calls for tax breaks for families that hire foreign domestic helpers, which is amusingly inane. The focus on fertility and children squeeze out any thoughts she might have on the other 99% of issues.

The ‘pro-business’ party’s Young spouts vacuous slogans like ‘underpinning economic pillars’, ‘unleashing Hong Kong’s potential’, and ‘committing to economic transformations’. No mention of what these actually mean (are they even compatible with one another?) and certainly no hint of actual policy proposals. Nothing on (say) tackling the budget deficit or abandoning outdated thinking on land prices, tourism and ‘hubs’. But he does mention safeguarding national security, which Judy – to our horror – has overlooked.

Within just a few weeks, medal-winning fencer girl Vivian Kong has gone from a humble PR assistant at the Jockey Club to rumored possible LegCo candidate to ‘considering’ running in the Tourism functional constituency to attending a high-profile photo shoot with industry figures to appearing on the ballot. Apart from a very brief glimmer of uncertainty about her Canadian passport, it was one of the smoothest- and fastest-ever entrances to Hong Kong ‘politics’. 

A clue as to what’s going on: China Daily carries plenty of glam-pics. As does the Standard. The other candidate – an actual tourism guy of some sort and district council member called Marco Ma – must be wishing he hadn’t bothered. The Tourism constituency has only 170-odd voters, all of them organizations rather than humans…

According to sources, Kong secured more than 10 nominations from the functional constituency, including support from Regal Hotels, Miramar Group, and Guangdong Holdings, along with Election Committee nominations from violinist Yao Jue and Josephine Tsui Mei-wan.

But perhaps there are hopes that her fame as a former Olympic champion will encourage wider interest in an otherwise not-very-compelling election.

From AFP via HKFP – one outgoing lawmaker and a few commentators lament the rubber-stamp nature of the all-patriots body…

The city had two decades of spirited opposition politics, which took off in the final years of British colonial rule and grew into a pro-democracy coalition in the 2010s before being wiped out.

“(Nowadays) a lot of the speeches have an echo chamber effect… The culture is monotonous, and those who are relatively lively have given up re-election,” said Kenneth Chan, a political scientist at Hong Kong Baptist University.

Departing legislators have cited reasons such as age and party strategy.

More than a dozen lawmakers declined to be interviewed by AFP.

Not-for-profit news site HKFP reports on its own experience of an audit by the HK Inland Revenue Dept of independent media outlets…

The tax office has closed a 20-month investigation into seven years’ worth of HKFP’s accounts, after the newspaper was “randomly selected” for an audit.

The Inland Revenue Department (IRD) claimed an alleged tax underpayment of HK$3,020 during the 2021-22 assessment year, worth 0.78 per cent of HKFP’s income.

Last month, HKFP chose to settle the case and pay HK$57,692, including penalties, to avoid the likely prohibitive cost of further disputing a modest discrepancy. It is unclear how much the case cost taxpayers.

Last February, the IRD launched an audit of HKFP’s corporate accounts and the personal accounts of its founder, Tom Grundy, from 2017 onwards. The Hong Kong Journalists Association revealed this May that much of Hong Kong’s independent news sector – including companies, staff and family members – was also under audit, with some facing “strange, unreasonable claims” from the IRD.

In July, it emerged that many in the independent book sector were also being audited.

…The IRD arrived at the HK$57,381 settlement by applying the 0.78 per cent shortfall during the 2021-22 tax year to HKFP’s declared income during the six other years of inspection. The sum of HK$24,381 was added to a HK$33,000 penalty, plus interest of HK$311.

Within weeks of the IRD probe, accounting firm Noble Partners dropped HKFP as a client, claiming they did not “possess the required knowledge and experience” to handle an audit.

More in this statement from HKFP, including an appeal for donations. 

Meanwhile (from a post by razvenhk)…

Pro-democracy Thai restaurant Thai Ki Lung in Sham Shui Po, Hong Kong announced that they have decided to close after 12 Nov, citing a worsening business environment and constant visits from government departments.

From HKFP – arrests are still taking place for involvement in the 2019 protests. Six are charged with weapons offenses, with two also alleged to have conspired to incite others to riot. One was recently acquitted of terrorism charges.

Bloomberg looks at investors trying to reduce their exposure to Hong Kong’s property market…

When Blackstone Inc. bet on Hong Kong’s commercial real estate sector in 2014, it bought a 20,000-square-foot retail space in the bustling Mong Kok district for HK$700 million ($90 million) to target mainland Chinese tourists seeking brand-name wear.

Today, the space that once housed Forever 21 is valued at less than half that amount and Blackstone is in talks with Taipei Fubon Commercial Bank Co. to renegotiate terms of a loan for the property…

The soured bet by the world’s largest alternative asset manager offers a glimpse into the risks for global private equity funds that poured $17 billion into Hong Kong’s once-booming commercial real estate market between 2010 and 2019, according to data from Colliers. From Gaw Capital Partners to Schroders Plc, investors are facing a dilemma: Sink more cash into struggling properties or forfeit them to lenders.

…The average price of retail space in the city plunged 41% as of August from a 2018 peak, according to Hong Kong government data. Offices, near their worst vacancy rates, have also tanked 49% in value.

That’s eroding the collateral value behind many bank loans, which could lead to margin calls, refinancing challenges and in more severe cases distressed asset disposals.

William Pesek in Asia Times on the Trump-Xi meeting…

On Thursday, Trump gushed about an “amazing” meeting with Xi, where he agreed to cut China’s tariff to 47%. But the odds that posterity will concur are exceedingly low.

For one thing, there’s nothing “grand” about the bargain to which Trump and Xi are discussing in the loosest and vaguest terms possible. Specifics, targets, enforcement mechanisms and punishment for non-compliance will all be discussed by US and Chinese trade officials at a future date.

Nothing on the table, though, alters the mechanics of a US$659 billion trade relationship in any notable way. Face-saving agreements to throttle back on tariffs, buy more soybeans and increase the flow of rare-earth minerals are grand on some levels. But narrowing America’s trade deficit with China requires a wholesale remaking of commercial dynamics.

For another, myriad tripwires could — and likely will — return Trump and Xi to battle stations. Count the ways things could go awry: China depreciating the yuan; Trump depreciating the dollar; the US economy slowing sharply; either side failing to live up to a deal; domestic political troubles prompting either leader to lash out abroad.

On YouTube, James Marsh reviews a new Hong Kong animated fantasy Another World. Sounds more like a Ghibli derivative than something authentically local. 

But the movie version of Kobayashi-san’s Maid Dragon is opening soon.

HKFP reports…

“Opposition forces” are smearing Beijing’s warnings about the upcoming “patriots only” Legislative Council elections, Chief Executive John Lee has said.

Speaking at a regular press conference on Tuesday, the chief executive said “anti-China elements” and external forces had attempted to obstruct the Legislative Council (LegCo) polls scheduled on December 7.

Lee’s comment came days after the top Beijing office overseeing Hong Kong affairs warned of “interference and destruction by anti-China forces” in the race.

The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office (HKMAO) in Beijing issued a commentary on WeChat last Friday. The commentary warned of “false claims” that Beijing had meddled with the elections and that it had a list of “endorsed candidates.”

(In the Standard story, Lee refers to claims of restrictions as ‘soft resistance’. The Global Times piece quotes him as saying that ‘it is only natural for the central authorities to be concerned about and pay attention to the election’.)

It is a fact that Beijing played a role in devising the ‘patriots only’ election system that removed all opposition voices from Legislative and District councils. It is also a fact that, in order to get on the ballot, candidates must be nominated by (pro-government) members from all five ‘sectors’ within the Election Committee, one of which comprises local representatives on national bodies. Whether or not there is a ‘list of endorsed candidates’, everyone on the ballot will have been cleared/approved.

The HKMAO and Hong Kong government seem particularly sensitive about allegations that officials behind the scenes have ordered LegCo’s old guard and some others not to run again. Their vociferousness might just deepen suspicions. But does claiming that Regina Ip was told to stand down pose a threat to the election? It is more probable that most people in Hong Kong are not interested: only 22% of LegCo seats are now returned by popular vote; it is likely that many of the candidates will be unknown to most of the public; and no candidates will actively oppose government policies or demand better ones. 

It’s interesting that the CE is criticizing unnamed ‘opposition forces’ for smearing Beijing’s warnings about threats to the election. As if to say that you are insulting the higher authorities if you think their fears of ‘interference and destruction by anti-China forces’ in the election are exaggerated. 

Security Secretary Chris Tang weighs in, saying…

…resolute law enforcement action will be taken against illegal acts to allow the upcoming Legislative Council elections to be held in a safe and orderly manner.

He said it could be illegal for people to encourage others to cast a blank ballot or not to vote in the December 7 election.

Tang also said it is against the law for anyone to collude with foreign forces to control, or interfere in, the elections.

“We will carry out all kinds of law enforcement actions, including intelligence gathering, against any illegal act that aims to undermine the safety of the elections,” he said.

What does it say that the authorities have criminalized the act of urging people to boycott an election? 

RTHK reports that the CE…

…said on Tuesday that he expects fierce competition in December’s Legislative Council elections and called on everyone in society to throw themselves into the polls.

Lee said he will write to all civil servants on Tuesday to call on them to cast ballots.

He also called on other segments of society to support and participate in the elections, saying appeals would be made to organisations and firms to fulfil their social responsibility.

If the authorities want people to believe that hostile forces aim to sabotage the election, it might help at least to suggest a motive. Why would anyone bother? Otherwise, the whole fuss might be seen as a way to stir up interest in a process many people are ignoring. The only obvious thing that might spoil the election in December is indifference and a low turnout – compared, say, with the 71% turnout in November 2019’s district polls. And what would cause such apathy? 

If turnout is low, will the people who claim the CIA paid Honkongers to protest in 2019 say it paid them not to vote in 2025? 

The Standard reports that ‘Smiling Queen of Fencing’ Olympic gold winner Vivian Kong will not run for LegCo. Someone (‘political figures’) apparently approached her to run in a geographical constituency as her ‘popularity and wholesome public image were seen as potential assets that could inspire voter engagement and inject a fresh face into the political scene’. But she has a foreign passport, so she can’t.

Reading between the lines, the ‘political figures’ were not sufficiently well connected that they could deliver ‘community networks’. Which sounds like we’re not talking United Front ‘A List’. Do we detect a whiff of Regina’s New People’s Party? Though the Standard print edition story focuses on the Business and Professionals Association’s nominations. 

Anyway, Joel Chan adds a decisive lunge…

In her master’s thesis submitted to Beijing Renmin University in 2021, “[Vivian] Kong hailed Beijing’s bid to revamp Hong Kong’s electoral system, saying it ensured only ‘patriots’ could hold power in getting the city back on [the] right track.”

The trial of Albert Ho, Lee Cheuk-yan and Chow Hang-tung was due to begin on May 6 this year, was then postponed to November 11, and is now delayed again until January 22 next year. They are accused of ‘inciting subversion of state power’ as leaders of the HK Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China, which organized Tiananmen vigils for years. If you are charged under the NatSec Law, you cannot get bail. Thus Chow and Lee have already spent over 1,500 days in pre-trial detention.

HKFP story.

Amnesty International issues a statement in which an Executive Director says…

…the National Security Law uses the vaguely defined ‘endangering national security’ as a pretext to systematically deny defendants the right to bail, seriously undermining their right to a fair trial.

More importantly, freedom of expression is a human right. Chow Hang-tung and Lee Cheuk-yan should never have been arrested and prosecuted for commemorating 4 June and seeking historical truth. The Hong Kong government must immediately drop the charges and release both of them.

For anyone who doubts that the authorities ordered all Hong Kong’s older all-patriots lawmakers to retire… Not only do Beijing and local officials insist that it’s not true, but Regina Ip – indefatigable stalwart of butting in and being Really Important – drops out of the coming election. 

If you need a summary – the BBC’s report on last week’s fourth plenum of the CCP.

Andrew Batson reviews a new book on China’s all-important university entrance exam…

The gaokao is not seen as legitimate because it is instituted by the Communist Party; rather, it is the Communist Party that gains legitimacy by administering the gaokao in an even-handed way.

…One of the more interesting implications of the book is that because the social prestige of the gaokao is so high in China, and because everyone has been trained to understand and work with that kind of system, that it has implicitly become the model for other social institutions outside of education. The authors analyze the underling structure of the gaokao as a “centralized hierarchical tournament”: the competition between students is centralized because there is only one standard of success, and it is hierarchical because success is defined in relative terms, by doing better than those around you. Once the concept is grasped, it is easy to see many other centralized hierarchical tournaments in Chinese society.

The most consequential of these is probably the competition among local governments to generate economic growth, which many scholars have identified as one of the fundamental structures underlying China’s reform-era growth boom. Local officials are always competing for promotion and advancement, and one of their key performance indicators is economic growth in their jurisdiction. That competition is centralized because there is, effectively, only indicator of success, GDP growth, and only one arbiter of success, the central Party apparatus. And it is hierarchical because success is defined relative terms: it’s about where is your GDP growth relative to your peers and predecessors in office.