Big Lychee, Various Sectors

Chief Executive John Lee gives an interview to Sing Tao on the economy, saying…

Hong Kong should develop its economy at full speed with the priority for now being on quantity in the belief that quality will inevitably follow.

What does this mean? Nothing – unless by ‘economy’ you mean ‘the tourism industry’, and you think cramming the city full of low-budget mass-market visitors will then lure more high-spending ones. Thus…

Lee said his administration would also try to attract internationally renowned performers and events to the new Kai Tak sports park to boost the economy.

Inevitably, NatSec gets a look-in…

… “[Passing Article 23] is a milestone. We can now focus on improving people’s livelihoods and Hong Kong will definitely be better,” he said.

Lee said the national security risks that Hong Kong is facing now mostly come from overseas as some countries may target China due to geopolitics, affecting us.

Those countries will also send spies to Hong Kong, he added, reminding the public to remain cautious and pledging to raise awareness of national security risks through patriotic education.

Asked how the administration will handle relations with Western countries, Lee said officials here are not interested in bringing up political controversies all the time and willing to visit different regions to promote Hong Kong.

“We only inform people of the actual situation here when we come under attack. At other times, we just hope more people will visit Hong Kong for investment, business or tourism,” he said.

Hong Kong is a place with a high degree of freedom and the government welcomes international economic or academic exchanges, Lee said, adding the administration would also invite foreign officials or elites to visit apart from hosting international conventions and events.

So on the one hand, foreigners are a hostile scary threat – but on the other hand, we want them to come here and like us.

Returning to the quantity vs quality thing…

“It’s similar to running a restaurant. We should attract customers to fill it first, or we won’t be able to pick the right customers. After it is full and people start to queue up, we can then consider which dishes are high value-added and if we should raise the minimal charges for the VIP rooms,” Lee said.

“Quantity coming first before quality is inevitable. We should not ‘exclude’ some business opportunities at first.”

I’ve never run a restaurant. I don’t think I would do it this way.

On the subject of odd analogies and metaphors, HKFP reports that the CE also likens attracting mega-events to how he used to chase girls. By which I can – sadly – only guess he means ‘with great difficulty’, as Hong Kong today struggles to arouse any interest among all those glamorous stars who prefer the cool kids like Seoul, Tokyo, Taipei, Jakarta, Singapore, Bangkok and pretty much anywhere but here. (Though I saw a poster for the 5,6,7,8s recently – the Japanese rockers must be grannies by now. Click on pic above.)

Allen Zeman recently said ‘not many chief executives can do better than John Lee’. How does the current CE compare with hereditary shipping tycoon Tung Chee-hwa or bureaucrat Donald Tsang, who thought that pushing property prices up artificially could restore economic vibrancy? Is an ex-cop who sees mass-tourism as the lifeline an improvement?

Historically, Hong Kong did well with governments that largely left the people and business alone rather than trying to micromanage everything. Obviously, those days are over. For example, the mega-event that is the Book Fair comes with NatSec reminders. And the School Inspectors are back, with have some very specific priorities…

At the Yan Chai Hospital Lim Por Yen Secondary School in Tsuen Wan, students were said to have “actively [taken] part in patriotic activities” such as paper cutting and sugar painting during a Chinese culture week.

According to the report, however, students sang the national anthem softly during flag-raising ceremonies. Teachers were recommended to: “give reminders and help students develop a habit of singing the national anthem loudly.”

From SCMP…

Tung Wah Group of Hospitals Kap Yan Directors’ College in North district was advised to give students more guidance so they could cultivate a habit and confidence in singing the national anthem, although it did not say their voices were weak.

It is not the first time the bureau has taken issue with how students sing the national anthem.

An annual summary inspection report released in December also hit out at teachers and students for singing the national anthem together “a little soft”, although no specific schools were named.

Mitigation hearings begin in the HK47 case, with special media zones and inflatable tunnels, and Benny Tai’s lawyer arguing that he should get no more than a two-year prison sentence. (I guess quoting Lord Sumption would have been provocative.)

Chief Executive John Lee says the July 1 Handover Day holiday will be ‘filled with joy’…

“I strongly believe that the day will be filled with joy because we have many different measures to help people celebrate,” Lee said in Cantonese.

On a different subject…

so, like, legit question to the shoes-on-inside-the-house folks: does *mud* not exist where you live? or rain? or snow?

One reply suggests that in dry climates, wearing shoes should be less of an issue. But in those parts of (Saharan) North Africa I’ve visited, you always take your shoes off at the door. And in many damp parts of Europe, people wear shoes in the house. These places always have doormats, however. Perhaps by way of mitigation we could point out that doormats are serious things with stiff bristles, and woe betide anyone not using them.

Perhaps another climate-related issue would be that some places in Europe do not heat their homes much even when it’s cold. (Though the Japanese don’t, either.)

Another suggestion is that the mud in shoe-wearing places is ‘cleaner’. But a Tokyo street is surely less nasty than, say, a doggy-infested Parisian one. Perhaps in Japan – where shoe-removal is a major deal (even burglars comply) – people still remember less sanitary times. A century ago, in many parts of Asia (and still today, in some), the street outside was a mixture of mud and pig and duck droppings. So having separate indoor and outdoor shoes was essential. 

I do not get the really anal Japanese thing where you have separate slippers for the bathroom – assuming the household washes the bathroom floor from time to time.

Speaking of which, the common areas in my block probably (OK, definitely) have the floors cleaned more often than inside my apartment. So, in theory, the management should be making me take my shoes off when I leave home and enter the corridor.

Shoes on a bed – as seen in some Western TV shows – is gross.

One of the remaining UK non-permanent judges is hearing the appeal by Martin Lee, Margaret Ng, Jimmy Lai, Albert Ho, Lee Cheuk-yan, Long Hair and Cyd Ho (ages 67-88) over their conviction for illegal assembly…

[David] Neuberger told Reuters in mid-June he would remain on Hong Kong’s highest court to “to support the rule of law in Hong Kong, as best I can.”

HKFP story on the case here…

On [August 18, 2019] organisers estimated that 1.7 million people attended a “water flow” assembly in Causeway Bay’s Victoria Park, as months-long protests sparked by a controversial amendment to the city’s extradition bill continued. The seven activists were seen leading a march, which they said was a “dispersal plan,” and chanting protest slogans.

The group successfully overturned their conviction over organising an unauthorised assembly last August, but their conviction on the participation charge was upheld. The case reached the city’s final appellate court on Monday, when five judges heard arguments on whether “operational proportionality” should be followed by local courts.

With Counter-Terrorism Police in attendance, perhaps in case Margaret Ng unleashes one of her killer cats… 

Plus fold-out tunnels, so appellants already in jail won’t be seen by the media.

The court reserves judgment.

Albert Ho and Lee Cheuk-yan are also being tried as members of the Tiananmen vigil organizers who are charged with ‘inciting subversion of state power’. Co-defendant Chow Hang-tung is asking for Anna Lai to be be removed from the panel of NatSec judges  …

Chow argued that Lai had previously viewed police investigatory materials that were redacted and kept from Chow and her defence team in a case involving the Alliance’s refusal to hand over data to the police.

…Lai’s access to those materials in the previous case could result in prejudice against Chow, the rights activist told the court, adding that the investigation materials were irrelevant to the national security case,

Allan Zeman says Chief Executive John Lee has made Hong Kong ‘come alive again’.

Private Eye on a certain non-permanent ex-judge on Hong Kong’s Court of Final Appeal. Will the satirical UK magazine get the Radio Free Asia treatment? The latter outlet incurred the wrath last week with a report on Hong Kong’s announcement that the previous-generation ID cards will become invalid next year. An RFA story (in Chinese) suggested that authorities were trying to lure dissidents and other exiles back to the city, or otherwise make life harder for emigres.

The government issues an angry press release – but it’s not the usual brazen sort used to rebut overseas criticism. This statement omits a lot of the usual phraseology and opts for a genuinely hurt tone, such that you almost want to give them a hug and say “there, there, I’m sure they didn’t mean it”…

By selectively quoting phrases announced by the ImmD at its press conference and elaborating unfounded speculation, the article headlined: “HKSAR government ‘threatens’ citizens to return to Hong Kong and renew their old ID cards – Will there be consequences for overseas Hong Kong residents failing to replace their ID cards?” falsely reported and maliciously distorted the original purpose of the ID card invalidation exercise. Not only did Radio Free Asia cite comments from a purported former immigration assistant who fabricated as an insider and misinterpreted relevant legal provisions and legal consequences, they also did not make any inquiries with the Government prior to publishing the article or conduct any fact checking. Radio Free Asia has completely violated media professional ethics and basic journalistic morality.

The HKSAR Government reiterated that the invalidation of old ID cards aimed to detect impersonation and possession of forged ID cards. The arrangements were in line with the previous replacement exercise, which does not involve any form of intimidation.

…The Radio Free Asia had disregarded journalistic ethics and distorted the Government’s policies and measures in an utterly irresponsible manner. The Government’s good intent in appealing public members for ID card replacement has been manipulated into a conspiracy to suppress Hong Kong people. The report is a piece of scaremongering fake information that smears the HKSAR Government. The HKSAR Government strongly condemns and calls on members of the public to ignore false information and discern the facts.

The problem is that the government has tried to make life harder for emigres, from barring use of departure on a BNO passport as a way to access MPF funds, and of course by putting bounties on exiled dissidents. Maybe people suspect the worst.

Security Chief Chris Tang takes a stern approach, accusing RFA of endangering national security…

“…what this outlet does from afar is that it uses inaccurate information, and comes up with ways to incite the people to distrust or hate the government. These are exactly the sort of potentially illegal activities that we target in safeguarding national security.”

He also accuses the Hong Kong Journalists Association of being an unrepresentative body as it elects a new chairperson amid anonymous threats to dissuade participation…

“Looking at [the list of candidates], it looks more like a foreign journalist association to me. Most of them are journalists from foreign media, some are freelancers, some are not even journalists and their organisations have engaged in political activities,” he claimed in Cantonese.

He also says (report in Chinese) that the HKJA sided with ‘gangsters’ during the protests. As it happens, the Association elects a Wall Street Journal reporter – so if the body comes under pressure to shut down, it could be an international story. She is in fact a Hongkonger – formerly with the HKFP.

Following another one – a 58-year-old for online posts – HKDC adds up the total number of arrests for sedition in Hong Kong, including 15 journalists, 43 people for online speech, 13 for books and two for T-shirts.

Health Minister Lo Chung-mau, who did so much for Hong Kong’s reputation and economy by insisting on emulating Beijing’s zero-Covid approach long after vaccines became available, seems to be embracing Mainland-style natalism…

Lo … said the government encourages married couples to have babies at a younger age to boost the success rate. Lo also described women and their eggs as “soil” and “seeds” as he pointed out that freezing the eggs cannot reverse the biological restrictions on women’s maternal age. 

“The ‘seeds’ will be preserved but the ‘soil’ has changed according to their increasing age,” Lo said. 

This went down badly with several female lawmakers. Remember that all LegCo members these days are vetted  – and most in practice simply appointed – for their loyalty to the government, so it is rare for them to criticize officials.

Several health inspectors are charged with stealing seafood being tested for radiation…

Their duties as [Centre for Food Safety’s Risk Management Division] members included checking the radiation level of food items to ensure they were safe for consumption. Radiation testing of imported Japanese food became part of routine food surveillance in January 2021.

The anti-graft watchdog said the accused spent more than HK$88,000 in taxpayer’s money to buy food samples from five food importers in mid-2022 and early 2023 for two radiation tests.

…[They] planned to misappropriate the leftover samples after the tests. This was in violation of internal guidelines requiring officers to properly dispose of the residual samples and keep a record.

ICAC officers later uncovered more than 80 unused food samples at the home of the five, including canned abalone, white truffle sauce, crab bisque, Japanese rice and pasta.

The surveillance of Japanese seafood is not a scientific policy – simply a political performance in line with Beijing’s after the release of treated water from Fukushima. So, no surprise that everything they test is satisfactory.

Some might argue that, by not throwing the food away, they were actually making good use of taxpayers’ money.

On the subject of efficient use of available ingredients in the kitchen: by popular demand (OK, one commenter) – how to make fermented chili sauce. Quite simple…

Chop up a combination of washed and dried chilies and tomatoes. The ratio should be roughly 80-20 (though any combination will work). Ideally, the chillies should include some small Thai-style ultra-hot ones, plus some milder Scotch bonnet, jalapeno, etc. The tomatoes should include some small sweet ones as well as regular bigger ones (or just regular ones and some sugar to provide an equivalent sweetening effect).

Chop up some garlic and ginger – a ratio of around 3-2, adding up to roughly 5% of the volume of tomatoes and chillies. (Again, any amount will work – it all depends on taste.)

Now blend the whole lot into a mash. Exact consistency up to you. Add enough non-chlorinated water to make the mixture however runny you want – maybe increasing the overall volume by a third or so. Then add non-iodized salt equivalent to around 2-3% of the weight of this whole mixture*. Stir it well.

Now put it in a clean wide-necked jar. If you don’t have a fancy pickling jar with an airlock, you can press plastic wrap over the liquid to keep air off it, at least for the first few days of fermentation. Screw the lid on and leave it somewhere at a warmish room temperature. (It’ll probably be fine if you don’t bother with the plastic wrap, but best stir with something clean every day so nothing gets round to growing on the stuff before fermentation kicks off.) Put the jar in a plastic bag or something in case it starts to leak when fermentation does start. Open the jar every day to let gas escape.

Within a week, it should be ready for decanting (if necessary) and putting in the fridge, which stops the fermentation. The longer it ferments, the sourer it will get. (It will ferment faster at a warmer temperature, but the taste might be harsher.) 

You could strain the liquid to make a purely liquid sauce, if you insist, but the classic sauce is lumpy.

Pretty straightforward and foolproof, provided you avoid water and salt with antiseptic additives. Unlike pickling with vinegar, you are growing, rather than killing, bacteria. Lactobacillus. The result is more subtle and aromatic – and healthy if you’re into gastrointestinal microbiome stuff.

Obviously, you can pickle pretty much any veg (or fruit) this way, eg baby cucumbers (add dill) or string beans, carrots, etc. For sauerkraut or kimchi, you cut and salt the cabbage first, rinse off a bit and then pack it in its own juice. But same process. 

Fun for all the family.

* The process should work with something between 1-6% salt, but obviously more means a saltier product. You might get away with using tap water and iodized salt – but no guarantees. See here for some science.

China’s Ministry of State Security responds (indirectly) to Lord Sumption’s criticism of the HK47 trial, saying…

…the verdict … was a deterrent to “anti-China forces and foreign forces.”

“Those who dare to challenge the bottom line of China’s national security will be severely punished by the law,” the ministry said in a Chinese-language post on WeChat.

…“A criminal and wicked idea brought them together and led them on a path of no return,” it added.

The ministry singled out former law professor Benny Tai, the key organiser of the primary election, as the “chief culprit” of the scheme that it said was directed at sabotaging the functioning of the city government and overthrowing state power. Tai was among those who pleaded guilty.

“The anti-China forces led by Benny Tai… through illegally trying to obtain a majority in the Legislative Council and vetoing the government budget indiscriminately, would create a crisis in governance,” the ministry said.

Some half a million voters took part in the pan-dem primary election in 2020 (following what looked rather like a ‘crisis in governance’ in 2019). Did anyone involved consider the exercise ‘anti-China’ or connected with ‘foreign forces’? Or in any way unconstitutional or illegal?

The Hongkonger talks to a Hong Kong lawyer who has moved to the UK and qualified as a soccer referee…

“Having come to the UK, I find the easiest way to make friends is to follow my hobby. Some of us are good friends by now, as we go to a pub after a match or watch other football games. It really helps me integrate into the community.”

Interestingly, his referee role also forms a lens into British lifestyle and culture. He has observed a glaring difference between men’s and women’s football: male players would argue with him, but the females would praise him to create positive reinforcement so he might be more inclined to side with them.

Regina Ip copes with Lord Sumption’s departure in China Daily…

In his parting diatribe, Sumption let his emotions run away with him. In sharing the sympathies of naive bystanders who side with the seemingly decent “democracy” fighters in the case of “35+”, Sumption turned a blind eye to the criminal intent of the participants in the plot to reject the government’s budget with a view to forcing the resignation of the chief executive and unleashing chaos on Hong Kong. He was dishonest in saying that ordinary laws would have been adequate to quell the months of riots in Hong Kong.

…Sumptions’ vitriolic parting words are unjustified, uncalled-for, and a blot on his otherwise laudable career as one of Hong Kong’s venerable overseas judges. For someone who has worked with Hong Kong through its trials and tribulations in the past five years, his words were the unkindest cut, and will go down in infamy.

…Every passing storm showcases the Hong Kong’s judiciary’s resilience. Hong Kong’s courts have indeed remained “competent and independent”. They are sure to go from strength to strength.

Meanwhile, National Post reports that Canadian judge Beverley McLachlin…

…renewed her three-year appointment on a Singapore commercial court months before announcing she was leaving a controversial post on a Hong Kong court to spend more time with her family.

(Overseas judges on Hong Kong’s Court of Final Appeal typically spend no more than one month a year actually on the job. As well as providing a nice little HK$400,000, it offers the perfect excuse to get away from your family after 11 dreary months with them.)

…but a few words from outgoing Singapore Prime Minister Baby God, speaking recently to the city-state’s Chinese chamber of commerce and clan associations. A little reminder of a key difference between Singapore and Hong Kong…

In Singapore, all citizens should put Singapore and its interests first. While the Singapore Chinese share their ethnic roots with other Chinese around the world, and some Chinese feel that we are all “descendants of the Dragon”, it is important that we remember we are first and foremost Singaporeans. Recently a Straits Times journalist who was formerly based in Beijing shared his experience of being frequently questioned by locals on his identity. He would be told that since he was Chinese, he should understand and support China’s position. This journalist did not think that just because you share the same race, you would accept the same perspective. He pointed out that he felt a stronger affinity towards people who shared the same experiences growing up. He firmly believes that I am Singaporean and this is my country. I agree with him. As Singaporeans, we have our own interests to protect and our own positions to uphold.

A Timothy McLaughlin Tweet on the Hong Kong government’s response to the two million-strong protest march of June 16, 2019…

5 years ago today, Hong Kong CE says that the massive street protests,“embodied the spirit of Hong Kong as a civilised, free, open and pluralistic society that values mutual respect, harmony and diversity.” 

Today, a violent color revolution, black clad violence, separatism.

Organized and paid for by the CIA, etc.

More on contrasts with the past in a Tim Hamlett article about the differences between the 1967 riots (over 50 people killed) and the 2019 protests. The subversion laws in 1967 allowed for a maximum sentence of two years; the colonial government mounted a major inquiry, followed by significant reforms in the 1970s; and…

Another aspect of the 1967 outbreak which sheds an interesting light on current affairs is that by a little over two years later all those convicted had been tried, sentenced, collected the usual discounts and been released.

From the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China: what Hong Kong doesn’t want you to know on the courts’ refusal to hear testimony from Jimmy Lai’s foreign contacts…

It is clear that Mr. Lai’s alleged involvement with us, members of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, is key to the case against him.Yet nobody in Hong Kong has approached any of us for a statement or evidence. Not once.

In any normal rule of law system, this would represent a serious failure in both the investigative and judicial processes. Mr. Lai is alleged to have committed serious offences. The failure to approach us – who the prosecution alleges to be witnesses and accomplices in Mr. Lai’s so called crimes – is an appalling omission that in ordinary circumstances would precipitate a mis-trial.

We wrote to you not once, but twice to make clear that we would be willing to provide evidence. Despite there being no legal reason for doing so, you have refused this opportunity.

All of which brings us to an SCMP op-ed politely suggesting that Lord Sumption’s recent comments ‘cannot be easily dismissed’…

This is not an attack from a British politician with an anti-China agenda. The distinguished judge served on Hong Kong’s Court of Final Appeal for five years. He has also, in the past, been a staunch defender of the city’s legal system and the role of foreign judges on the top court, saying they should not be abandoned. Clearly, he has changed his mind.

…Sumption described the atmosphere in Hong Kong as oppressive, referring to sensitivity about anything deemed to concern national security, from protest songs to Tiananmen memorials. He said it takes “unusual courage” for a judge to swim against the strong political tide.

He did not mention the very high conviction rate of almost 100 per cent in national security cases. That has played a part in shaping such perceptions. So has the fiery rhetoric from officials which has sometimes accompanied arrests, prosecutions and verdicts.

As have the charges that led to many of the nearly-100% convictions, whether it’s trying to win seats in an election or wearing a T-shirt.

Speaking of which, HKFP reports that…

A Hong Kong man was denied bail under the city’s new domestic security law after he allegedly wore a t-shirt with a banned protest slogan and a yellow mask.

The Global Times story on the HKMAO’s Sumption commentary has a different take, portraying the former judge as both victim and villain…

The Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office of the State Council slammed the latest remarks made by Jonathan Sumption, a British judge who recently resigned from Hong Kong’s highest court, saying he has willingly become a tool of British political manipulation, making people not only shocked but also feel ashamed and disgraced for him. 

…It is clear to the world that forcing judges to resign is a despicable political maneuver by the British government and politicians targeting Hong Kong, and one can imagine and sympathize with the pressure Sumption may have faced, the office said. 

However, as a former NPJ of the Hong Kong’s CFA and a judge of the UK’s Supreme Court, with a certain reputation internationally, Sumption has completely abandoned his professional spirit and ethics, and utterly betrayed the dignity of the rule of law and his judicial peers, the office added. 

…Sumption … willingly collaborates with malevolent forces, acting as a pawn and vanguard in the destruction of Hong Kong’s judicial system.

David Neuberger explains why is one of three British non-permanent CFA judges who haven’t resigned…

“My feeling is that so long as I can do good by being there and so long as I think that I might cause harm by leaving, I want to stay and support my judicial colleagues in Hong Kong and support the rule of law as long as I can,” Neuberger said.

Neuberger, 76, said he understood the views of those who suggest that foreign judges should leave the city’s top court, and he is not suggesting that fellow British judges Jonathan Sumption and Lawrence Collins were wrong to leave the Court of Final Appeal.

He said he is aware of the “boiling frog syndrome,” adding: “It is a matter of individual assessment as to when the water gets too hot.”

Not perhaps the most ringing endorsement.

Your weekly Hong Kong government long angry response, this time to a (‘so-called’) annual report on Hong Kong issued by the European Commission. One of 22 paras…

“The HKSAR steadfastly safeguards national sovereignty, security and development interests, and fully and faithfully lives up to this top priority of the ‘one country, two systems’ principle. The HKSAR Government will resolutely, fully and faithfully implement the Hong Kong National Security Law (NSL) and the Safeguarding National Security Ordinance so as to address, combat, deter and prevent in accordance with the law acts and activities endangering national security. At the same time, it will safeguard the rights and freedoms enjoyed by Hong Kong people in accordance with the law. Its overarching goal is to ensure the steadfast and successful implementation of ‘one country, two systems’. The HKSAR Government strongly urges the EU to discern facts from fallacies, respect the international law and basic norms governing international relations, and immediately stop interfering in Hong Kong matters, which are purely China’s internal affairs.”

Bloomberg does another ‘Hong Kong falling property prices’ story, with a dash of ‘resigning overseas judges’…

Like other urban centers from New York to London, Hong Kong is suffering from a mix of rising interest rates, financial-sector job losses and changing work habits. But for many in the city, the property slump has also become one of the clearest market proxies for a more alarming phenomenon: a steady loss of faith in Hong Kong’s status as Asia’s premier financial hub.

…Resignations this month by two overseas judges from Hong Kong’s top court, along with the retirement of a third, have put a fresh spotlight on a legal system that underpins investor confidence in everything from property to the stock market and corporate contracts.

…Existing homeowners are increasingly contemplating what once was unthinkable — selling at a loss.

In the “real estate sector, we are seeing the biggest structural change in 50 years,” Ronnie Chan, former chairman of property conglomerate Hang Lung Group Ltd., said during the Bloomberg Wealth forum in June. “The whole asset value has to adjust in Hong Kong. If you don’t accept it, if you don’t recognize it, I will say you will be a very unhappy person.”

…Lilian Liu’s experience is emblematic of this new reality. When the 35-year-old accountant listed her sea-view apartment for HK$9.5 million last February, she thought it was fair. Two subway stops from Hong Kong’s financial center, the 26-square-meter (280-square-foot) unit boasted a rare balcony and soaked in the morning sunlight through giant windows. Chic cafes and bars dotted the streets below.

No buyers came, so she slashed the asking price by 3%. Then 15%. And another 5%. More than a year on, she still hasn’t secured any offers and already faces a loss of HK$1.2 million.

Can you get giant windows in a 280-sq-ft apartment?

A couple of weekend links, on China’s middle-class woes…

A Forbes column says China’s middle class is ‘disappearing’. Let’s say ‘shrinking’…

In January and February, the most recent months for which data are available, personal income tax receipts were measured at about 362.2 billion yuan ($45.1 billion), fully 16 percent below prior year levels … Since individuals earning less than 100,000 yuan a year effectively pay no personal income taxes, the drop in individual income tax revenues, according to the [Finance] ministry, reflects a movement of households to incomes below this level. And since this 100,000-yuan annual income figure also marks the low end of what China considers middle class, the revenue shortfall speaks to how many have fallen out of this coveted status.

… Gucci reports that its China sales have slumped 20 percent this quarter from levels a year ago, and Swiss watch exports to China have fallen 25 percent from levels in 2023. High-end restaurants in China also report declines, especially telling since traffic has picked up a lower end eateries. In another telling anecdote, second hand piano inventories have risen so high they have put significant downward price pressure on prices. Since a piano has long served as a sign of middle-class status, the inventory glut speaks to how many have had to give up the quest.

The SCMP talks to middle-class Chinese rushing to emigrate as Western immigration rules are tightened…

“…even if I continue to hold on to the properties I currently own, there is a high probability that they will continue to depreciate over the next year, or in years to come.

“So, selling some of my domestic properties in exchange for an apartment and citizenship in Europe for the family sounds like a better deal than it ever has.”

…“Children can get a more international education in Hong Kong, and you can invest in gold and foreign currencies more freely in Hong Kong, with higher interest rates than in domestic banks.”

…“You could say that this year may be the last chance to hop on the easy train for immigration, so everybody is sort of going crazy for fear of missing out,” she said. “The number of inquiries has increased significantly, and clients will have to go all-out.”