Hong Kong’s latest population figures show a net inflow of 174,000. Given that several hundred thousand have emigrated in the last few years – falling school enrolments, etc – what’s going on? It seems the answer is a post-Covid influx of people who were semi-stranded in the Mainland. Waiting to see if officials trumpet this as some sort of success.

The government still forecasts long-term population growth to between 7.76 million and 8.96 million by 2046. The mid-line estimate is a net increase of 600,000. With far more local deaths than births, this assumes a net inflow of…

…890 000 One-way Permit holders, 510 000 Hong Kong Non-permanent Residents admitted through various [talent, etc] schemes and 240 000 foreign domestic helpers.

Otherwise, that Lantau reclamation is going to be a ghost town.

On the subject of controversial/questionable stats, China stops releasing data on youth unemployment. Reuters reports

Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), said the release of data would be suspended while authorities look to “optimise” collection methods.

“In recent years, the number of university students has continued to expand,” Fu said. “The main responsibility of current students is studying. Society has different views on whether students looking for jobs before graduation should be included in labour force surveys and statistics.”

…In recent months, China has restricted foreign users’ access to some corporate registries and academic journals, and cracked down on due diligence firms operating in the country, a vital source of information on China for overseas businesses.

“The declining availability of macro data may further weaken global investors’ confidence in China,” said Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, adding that youth unemployment was expected to have risen in July.

As many commentators are pointing out

…they would only do this if they believe the data are only going to get worse for the foreseeable future

(A Peking U professor has said the real rate of youth unemployment – including kids ‘lying flat’ – is more like 46%.)

Also from Fu Linghui…

“There is no deflation in the Chinese economy, and there will be no deflation in the future.”

This entry was posted in Blog. Bookmark the permalink.

10 Responses to Numbers

  1. Chinese Netizen says:

    Don’t forget the influx of PLA/PAP augmentations to the popo.

    If that won’t get locals to take Mandarin more seriously, I don’t know what will.

  2. Stu says:

    The last sentence would be followed by a standing ovation, like the opening scene in HBO’s Chenobyl.

  3. Wolflikeme says:

    I wonder how many HKers left but haven’t ‘officially’ said they left? For example, I have 3 SAR passport holders in my household who have been gone for over a year now. When it comes time to cash out MPFs (if anything is left) I suppose some paperwork will be filled out, but in the meantime there is no point.

  4. Mark Bradley says:

    I see that the completely awful Nury is quiet today. Let’s keep it that way.

  5. reductio says:


    Comrade, I’ve just seen the economy. There’s deflation everywhere!

    No you didn’t, it’s not possible to have deflation.

    But comrade, I’ve checked the statistics, they’re showing deflation of…

    Fuck your statistics! There’s no deflation.

    Comrade, I …

    Listen! There is no deflation. There can be no deflation. Our economy is growing. It will continue to grow. And everyone is spending. Or do you want to be reading your fucking statistics as the assistant to the assistant to the deputy of econometrics in Xinjiang. Maybe the Uygurs would like to listen to you spouting your crap there.

    No comrade! I made a mistake, there is no deflation.

    Good, good you see that…ugh…arrg… (pukes over table).

  6. Rocinante says:

    People who are not here are not counted. “Usual Residents” refer to two categories of people: (1) Hong Kong Permanent Residents who have stayed in Hong Kong for at least three months during the six months before or for at least three months during the six months after the reference time-point, regardless of whether they are in Hong Kong or not at the reference time-point; and (2) Hong Kong Non-permanent Residents who are in Hong Kong at the reference time-point.

    For those Hong Kong Permanent Residents who are not “Usual Residents”, they are classified as “Mobile Residents” if they have stayed in Hong Kong for at least one month but less than three months during the six months.”

  7. Rocinante says:

    I guess most of the population increase will be the return of domestic workers. Numbers fell during Covid.

  8. justsayin says:

    Potential ghost city in HK? another step closer to full integration with the fatherland comrade!

  9. Joe Blow says:

    There is no deflation in China like there are no “collapsing like a bad souffle” property prices in Hong Kong.

    There is no deflation !!

    Cheung Kong is simply off loading excess inventory!! Everybody knows that HK property prices never go down!! They merely stabilize.

    Without the Communist Party there can be no new China!!

  10. Comrade Dyatlov says:

    “What do the market indicators say?”
    “3.6 roentgen percent deflation. But that’s as high as the metrics…”
    “3.6 — not great, not terrible.”

Comments are closed.