This attention-grabbing, eye-catching, perhaps mouth-watering and heart-warming phrase appears at the conclusion of this (otherwise mainly-for-wonks) analysis by Victor Shih of how China’s Forthcoming Financial Armageddon Doomsday Disaster could come, if it ever does.
It seems a highly unlikely scenario – China defaulting and devaluing in order to preserve its foreign exchange reserves. It would surely eradicate the Communist Party’s credibility overnight. But presumably that would happen anyway once the reserves had been used up, so you might as well pull the plug sooner rather than later.
A less technical but no less (or no more) persuasive link is this, on Hong Kong independence/autonomy. The beginning on Kosovo/Quebec/etc and the middle on UN definitions of ‘a people’ and ‘self-determination’ are debatable or academic. The compelling idea is at the end. Essentially, Beijing’s hostility and sheer obnoxiousness turn Hong Kong independence/autonomy from pie-in-the-sky silliness to the only rational way forward. ‘Rational’ does not mean ‘possible’ or ‘likely’, but it does imply ‘talked about’ and ‘demanded seriously by more and more people’.
With regard to HK independence, I am sure that I have said this before on this forum but federalism is the way forward. Common defence and international trade policies but local determination. One of the (arguably few) things the US has done right and the EU is failing to do.
Ha, and the CCP will allow federalism the moment it decides democracy and separation of powers are good ideas after all. This is the CCP we’re talking about. They can barely tolerate a village election that doesn’t go their way.
I’m not putting too much hope in the “total collapse” scenario either, not because I think it can’t happen, but because I have no reason to believe that what comes afterwards will necessarily be better. Russia ended up swapping one oligarchy for another, and it’s not exactly a lot of fun to be a former Soviet Republic that doesn’t want to be aligned with Putin right now.
China is becoming so arrogant it thinks it can instruct the rest of the world’s leaders not to talk to the Dalai Lama. This not only invites the response “says who?”, but is obviously an invitation for them to make a point of doing so whenever they wish to signal their displeasure with China.
Hmm, @Old Newcomer.
And how many countries have ever stepped up to ‘signal their displeasure’ with China, beyond – somewhat, occasionally – the United States? (and Japan going mano-a-mano for a domestic audience)
@Reader – there is a list of his many visits at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_overseas_visits_by_Tenzin_Gyatso_the_14th_Dalai_Lama_outside_India – and that doesn’;t include his visit to the European Parliament in September 2016 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/19/dalai-lama-visit-to-strasbourg-european-parliament-provokes-threats-from-china) or his apparently declining a meeting with Donbald Trump (http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/800691/Dalai-lama-donald-trump-chinese-leader-xi-jinping-america-president).
Double Hmm, @Old Newcomer
None of your links say or suggest the Dalai Lama has declined a meeting with Donald Trump. Quite the contrary, he and his political assistant Lobsang Sangay continue to be willing to give their mala beads for a White House meeting with Trump and feel great insult and angst that it was not forthcoming immediately after the inauguration. The American connection, after all, is the most important one for the Dalai Lama. Financially and politically speaking the Americans have been most responsible for the last 60+ years of the Dalai Lama’s career. Now Trump, deep in his usual fog of narcissistic hubris, is going to see what he can get out of Xi Jinping before deciding how to handle the Dalai Lama. The Dalai Lama has not experienced this level of rejection in Washington DC since the days of Jimmy Carter.
The Dalai Lama probably will receive an official invitation to Taiwan sometime this year because, frankly, he is too juicy a poke-in-the-eye of Beijing for the Democratic Progressive Party to ignore, but whether Tsai Ying-wen receives him is another matter.
Sorry, I should have made myself clearer.
Yes, of course countries let His Holiness in, and sometimes leaders meet with him, but the visits, and whether there is an official meeting, always seem calibrated to fall just short of really pissing off China.
This finesse is a bit like muttering ‘the headmaster is a prick’ just after he goes out of earshot, but while your buddies still think it’s funny.