Big Lychee, Various Sectors

Other than run a pro-democracy newspaper and exercise freedom of speech and the press, what did Jimmy Lai actually do? The prosecution apparently struggles to come up with much…

Delivering arguments for the seditious publications charge, lead prosecutor Anthony Chau referenced articles published in Lai’s Apple Daily including an editorial calling for sanctions against Beijing and Hong Kong authorities.

He said that those articles did not include “rational criticism,” and that none of them provided recommendations or ventured “to suggest any solutions.”

…Based on Lai’s prior exchanges with US politicians and diplomats, one could infer that the pro-democracy paper’s criticism of the Chinese authorities were an “indirect” means of calling on foreign governments to interfere, Chau told the court on Tuesday.

…Chau also maintained that the media baron had called for what the prosecution labelled “Sanctions, Blockades, or Hostile activity” (SBHA) against the central Chinese authorities, despite not having made any open or direct requests for such actions after the enactment of Beijing’s national security law in Hong Kong.

The prosecution submitted that Lai had adopted a “calculated and strategic approach” for foreign sanctions to be imposed on China and Hong Kong by deliberately and “falsely” picturing the Chinese Communist Party in a negative light.

From RTHK…

While the former media boss “did not overtly call or request” for such actions following the security law’s promulgation, Chau said, Lai’s remarks were “naturally and reasonably” persuading foreign countries to impose sanctions, blockades or hostile activity.

The court heard the Apple Daily founder had leveraged “international attention” to advance his own agenda following the law’s implementation.

“He’s aware of the international attention to his acts and conducts, and he continued to make use of this media to arouse international attention to achieve his own purpose,” Chau said.

…Chau also said articles published by the now-defunct newspaper failed to offer “rational criticisms” of the government or provide solutions to remedy the situation, dismissing the defence’s contention that such publications were “critical opinions”.

Judge [Esther] Toh questioned if suggesting solutions is necessary when giving critical opinions. In response, Chau said commentaries that focus on providing remedies would not have seditious intent.

Tiffany Yuen is released after serving over four years in prison for taking part in the pan-dems primary election in 2020…

The 31-year-old left Lo Wu Correctional Institution in the early hours of Tuesday and was reunited with her family. She is the 12th democrat to be freed after being convicted of conspiracy to commit subversion in Hong Kong’s largest national security case, which involved 47 pro-democracy figures.

Another press release about absconders…

The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) Government yesterday (August 18) expressed strong opposition to the granting of asylum to two Hong Kong fugitives endangering national security who have absconded overseas by Australia and the United Kingdom (UK) respectively.

A spokesman for the HKSAR Government said that the Chief Secretary for Administration, Mr Chan Kwok-ki, summoned the Consul-General of Australia in Hong Kong, Mr Gareth Williams, and the British Consul General in Hong Kong, Mr Brian Davidson, respectively yesterday afternoon. At the meeting, Mr Chan solemnly pointed out that the HKSAR Government opposes any country harbouring offenders in any form and is strongly dissatisfied with any conduct that harbours criminals under any pretext. He reiterated that such harbouring effectively allows certain individuals or organisations to be immune from legal consequences for their illegal acts, which is no different from granting a special privilege to break the law. What Australia and the UK have done in harbouring these offenders totally runs contrary to the spirit of the rule of law and is absolutely not conducive to the relationship between the HKSAR and the two governments.

All rather mild. At least they should say ‘so-called asylum’. 

From Formosa TV, a video of former CE CY Leung berating Falun Gong practitioners in a park. In Helsinki.

From HKFP – after a delay for a heart check, closing arguments start at Jimmy Lai’s trial… 

Lai stands accused of two conspiracy charges of foreign collusion under the Beijing-imposed national security law and a third count of conspiring to publish seditious materials under colonial-era legislation. He faces life behind bars if convicted.

At the centre of the case are Lai’s ties with foreign officials and politicians, which prosecutors allege he used to lobby for countries to impose “Sanctions, Blockades, or Hostile activity” (SBHA) against authorities in mainland China and Hong Kong.

“We submit that all these foreign connections and foreign collaborations show [Lai’s] unwavering intent to solicit SBHA from foreign countries,” [Prosecutor Anthony] Chau told the court. “These collaborations are long-term and persistent.”

Prosecutors named retired US army general Jack Keane, ex-US deputy secretary of defence Paul Wolfowitz, and Mary Kissel, an advisor to then US secretary of state Mike Pompeo, as Lai’s foreign connections, among others.

Chau also attacked the defence’s closing arguments regarding human rights issues in the case, which have yet to be delivered orally in court.

…He also argued that the Beijing-imposed security law does not criminalise “normal international exchange,” but it outlaws foreign collusion, such as requesting foreign sanctions to be imposed on China and Hong Kong.

If you meet a foreign official and say one thing, that’s normal exchange; say another, and it’s a crime carrying a possible life sentence. There is no jury.

A quick Google search shows that the BBC, Reuters, AP, CBS, NBC and others are all covering the case. As does China Daily…

When discussing the case, Chau argued that while the collusion agreement was formed before the implementation of the NSL, its continued existence after the law’s enactment rendered it illegal.

Chau explained that the law does not require agreements to be “renewed” — defendants who maintained the same unlawful intent after the NSL took effect would be in violation, regardless of when the agreement was originally made.

Chau further noted that the prosecution need not pinpoint the exact time or location where the agreement was formed.

…Chau emphasized that the mere act of making such requests itself violates the law.

CNN reports from a rooftop hut in Sham Shui Po…

On a sweltering summer afternoon in Hong Kong, Yeung Fong-yan’s flat felt like an oven. Her air conditioner ran at full blast, but the tiny, tin-roofed room still baked in the heat, with a thermometer inside reading 36°C (96.8°F).

“Sometimes it’s so hot we can’t even sleep,” Yeung said, seated on the small bed that doubles as her couch, dining table and sleeping quarters. Her 13-year-old grandson had just returned home from school, exhausted and drenched in sweat after climbing nine floors to reach their apartment.

Following overseas press reports about activists who have fled overseas, and the granting of asylum status to Ted Hui in Australia and Tony Chung in the UK, Hong Kong presents its latest angry press statement…

The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) Government made a solemn statement yesterday (August 16) to express strong disapproval and opposition against the harbouring of criminals in any form by any country…

A spokesman for the HKSAR Government said, “Following the ‘black-clad violence’ and the Hong Kong version of ‘colour revolution’ in 2019, a number of criminals who have committed serious offences endangering national security absconded … During abscondence, they continued to blantantly [sic] engage in acts endangering national security. These are out-and-out shameful and cowardly acts. 

“…Hong Kong has an independent judiciary with the power of final adjudication. Everyone shall receive a fair and just trial. Any country that harbours Hong Kong criminals in any form shows contempt for the rule of law, grossly disrespects Hong Kong’s legal systems and barbarically interferes in the affairs of Hong Kong. Turning a blind eye to the offences committed by the criminals and disregarding the potential security threats posed to the local community and residents, they shall eventually bear the consequences of what they have done.”

Fans of these press releases will detect a change of tone here, with less of the ‘despicable’ rhetoric (‘grossly’ and ‘barbarically’ notwithstanding) and a focus on the wrongness of the absconders rather than of foreign officials or commentators. Maybe someone has decided the usual strident phrasing strikes external audiences as unhinged and is counterproductive. Or perhaps the regular Pyongyang-trained PR specialist is having a well deserved rest on a beach for August. 

From HKFP – a list of performances, NGOs’ gatherings and other events in recent years cancelled because venue owners suddenly found they had to do maintenance work, or in one case encountered an ‘irresistible force’. They include Denise Ho concerts (twice), Pink Dot (after 10 years with no problem), a high school debating competition, an author’s appearance and a football game.

A (probably paywalled) WSJ editorial…

Closing arguments in the year-long trial of Jimmy Lai were postponed again Friday until he can be fitted with a heart monitor. The 77-year-old publisher has been jailed for nearly five years, most of it in solitary confinement and wretched heat…

Though Hong Kong’s authorities have spent more than a year trying to document the supposedly nefarious activities he is accused of against the Hong Kong and Chinese governments, all they have proven is that he was an energetic newspaperman.

Hong Kong was once known for its rule of law and free press. But China has imposed a national-security law on the territory that it has used to shut down criticism and toss critics in jail. Its harsh treatment of Mr. Lai has turned the local businessman into the world’s most famous imprisoned champion of freedom.

Enter President Trump. He has said in the past that he would try to free Mr. Lai from prison. And this week he told Brian Kilmeade of Fox Radio that “I’m gonna do everything I can to save him.” Mr. Lai spoke admiringly of Mr. Trump long before he was arrested and jailed.

…Hong Kong authorities claim Mr. Lai is getting “appropriate” care. But the Communist Party can’t want Mr. Lai to die the way Nobel laureate and human-rights activist Liu Xiaobo did in 2017 shortly after a medical release. The stain on China’s image would be substantial.

If Mr. Lai’s trial resumes, he is certain to be convicted given the current state of Hong Kong justice…

As a recent satirical headline suggested, Trump’s summit with Putin was so embarrassing that he might try to use the Epstein files as a distraction. It is a stretch to expect some sort of principled or strategically coherent action out of the White House. And the idea that Beijing worries about the PRC’s reputation is no less fanciful.

On other matters – RIP actor Terence Stamp. Apparently he was in some Superman and Star Wars stuff, but his best films were the Oz classic Priscilla, Queen of the Desert, and Steven Soderbergh’s 1999 The Limey, which has flashbacks to the main character’s early life in the form of clips from one of Stamp’s earliest performances, Poor Cow, in 1967, and a soundtrack featuring the Who, Hollies and Byrds.

The SCMP is like a luxury goods store: you often walk past it but hardly ever look inside. Deciding to have a rare sniff around Jack Ma’s organ, I find Mike Rowse bemoaning Hong Kong’s de facto curfews during bad weather, which these days seem to be once a week…

I feel obliged to ask if Hong Kong has become a city of wusses. Do we really have to close down much of the city every time there’s excessive rain?

…For the most part [during a recent ‘black rainstorm’ episode], trains, buses, minibuses and taxis seemed to have run smoothly … convenience stores were open, as were various food outlets. Newspapers were being delivered normally. Some fitness studios were open. Other aspects of daily life ticked along.

As I sat alone in the office reading the news and eating my McDonald’s hamburger, I asked myself who else was missing. The answer was clear: it was mainly office workers. If it was safe enough for the men and women who drive our buses to show up for work, why were all the people who would normally occupy the seats on those buses not there?

If it is fine for 7-Eleven and Circle K stores to open amid severe weather, why isn’t it for government offices or banks? I feel bound to ask whether there is some kind of division based on class that makes it acceptable for some people to get rained on while other precious types must be kept dry at all costs.

(Sort of. People in blue-collar jobs are probably more afraid of having pay docked or being fired.)

He suggests a vaguely more flexible approach to striking a balance between ensuring public safety and keeping calm and carrying on. 

One problem is that Hong Kong can have distinct micro-climates. It can be a normal breezy day in northern Hong Kong island, while in Cheung Chau they have 100-mph winds. Kowloon might be flooded, while Yuen Long has a light shower. And it can change suddenly.

The current alerts kick in city-wide automatically when a tropical cyclone exceeds a certain strength and/or proximity to Hong Kong, while the black rainstorm signal depends on overall quantity of rain in previous hours. Except that it seems (maybe I’m imagining it) that bureaucrats tweak the signals – traditionally to encourage people to go to work, but increasingly out of fear of being criticized for doing just that. They can’t win. 

My proposal…

The Number 3, 8, etc typhoon signals were designed in and for an era of sailing ships. Today, sailors have their own dedicated high-tech weather warning info, so this numbering ritual is redundant. Landlubbers don’t need numbered signals. Similarly, there is no need for amber and red rainstorm alerts: we can see if it’s raining by looking out the window.

The only thing people need to know is: do we go to work/school (or go home early) or not? In other words, all we need is a ‘stay in place’ advisory when conditions look likely to be seriously nasty – regardless of whether it’s a typhoon, a plain storm, a volcano, or whatever. 

It really comes down to transport, and much depends on where you live. Outlying islands’ ferries cancel services when it’s too windy, so they should have a ‘stay in place’ notice that applies to them only. And some rural areas with minimal bus/minibus connections might need something similar. But there’s no need to shut everything down throughout the urban areas, where the MTR and buses keep running, unless it gets really bad. This was obviously the case on Tuesday morning last week – even if, as Rowse noticed, by the afternoon most downtown districts were fine but empty of office types. 

Home Affairs Secretary Alice Mak celebrates international brotherhood week…

The Home and Youth Affairs Bureau is organising a series of activities marking the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People’s War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War…

Efforts include … improving a section of a village road connecting to the Sha Tau Kok Anti-Japanese War Memorial Hall.

“This is to enable all sectors of society to make better use of the rich local anti-Japanese war historical resources and deepen public understanding of the history of the war,” Mak said.

The government announces that 100 candidates for the 2025 Election Committee Subsector by-elections have been screened and approved as suitably patriotic to take part in the September 7 exercise. Of the 100, 28 will take part in elections for 21 seats in six contested subsectors (such as ‘Architectural, surveying, planning and landscape’ and ‘Representatives of members of Area Committees, District Fight Crime Committees, and District Fire Safety Committees of Hong Kong and Kowloon’). Another 72 in 22 other subsectors are returned automatically because there is only one candidate per seat. Plus there’s…

…one candidate whose nomination for the Heung Yee Kuk subsector was ruled invalid by the CERC due to his death during the nomination period.

A complete list of these subsectors is here. The Election Committee officially elects the Chief Executive, who was unopposed last time, and 40 out of 90 seats in the Legislative Council, many of which will probably also have just one candidate per seat. So in essence, this is about people pretending to vote for people who will in turn pretend to vote for a ‘winning candidate’ CE already decided in Beijing or for a narrow field of carefully vetted prospective lawmakers. 

In the old days, a few of the subsectors had sizable electorates of normal people, so observers could detect signs of opposition – though the structure ensured that it wouldn’t make any difference to the result. But things have changed. As HKFP says…

…According to voter registration figures updated last month, there are 8,877 registered voters for the Election Committee polls, down from 257,992 in 2020.

And most of these voters – even those for ‘grassroots’ – are in fact corporate bodies or associations.

The budget is (if I recall) over HK$200 million? Why bother?

If Xi Jinping vanishes for a while, does it mean there’s a coup attempt underway? Is 2027 some sort of deadline for China to invade Taiwan? Lowy Interpreter on how and why outsiders find it easy to misread China…

In a system that rarely admits failure, silence can be seen as proof – a classic case of confirmation bias. These episodes show how stories can eclipse evidence, especially when they align with our assumptions. Analytical rigor means asking not just what we know, but why certain narratives stick.

Courtesy of Joel Chan – a chart of rent hikes and cuts in different areas of Hong Kong…

The ‘winner’ districts in the left-hand column are mixed – what you might call lower-middle to upper-middle class. They are mostly downtown or have otherwise desirable locations, and they have relatively affordable newish residential blocks. Kai Tak could have been included. In short, neighbourhoods that attract new Mainland immigrants.

The ‘laggards’ on the right are distinctly high-end. Southside locations Deepwater Bay and Shouson Hill are popular among very well-paid expats, typically boom-era Westerners or Mainlanders, on HK$200,000 a month housing allowances plus chauffeur-driven cars. Sai Kung and Clearwater Bay residents are more likely to be airline pilots, senior engineers, or whatever – ‘no riff-raff’ versions of Discovery Bay. Either way, they are beyond the reach of the sort of Mainland immigrants coming in on talent visas (not to mention inconvenience and tedious lifestyle).

CY Leung again warns about possible problems with an unpredictable influx of Mainlanders. This time, he’s worried about pressure on university places from ‘anchor babies’ born here before 2013 (when he barred Mainland women from giving birth here). But he also likes to point out that the number of talent visas issued does not seem to tally with the number of actual residents. In other words, people are getting permission to settle in Hong Kong but not actually moving here. His concern is that they might suddenly turn up and overload the city’s capacity. Current policymakers are probably more worried that they won’t. Thanks to Covid-NatSec emigration and an absurdly low birth rate, talent visas seem to be the city’s main source of population growth.

Eye-catching headline from the Guardian – how a teenager in Leeds, England woke up to find that China had put a bounty on her head…

Media outlets across east Asia were reporting that [Chloe] Cheung, who had just finished her A-levels, had been declared a threat to national security by officials in Hong Kong. There was an offer of HK$1m (£94,000) to anyone who could assist in her arrest or capture.

News reports included a photograph of her aged 11, seemingly the only picture officials had of her before she and her family left to resettle in the UK in 2020. “I couldn’t even really recognise myself,” she says.

…Cheung had dreamed of a gap year travelling the world and visiting friends in Hong Kong. Neither was possible now, after Chinese officials vowed to “pursue for life” Cheung and others they accuse of promoting democracy.

Includes a photo of the ‘wanted’ notice featuring an 11-year-old schoolgirl. Her story has also appeared in the BBC (‘A Level student who became enemy of the Chinese state’), Express, Telegraph, and elsewhere. The BBC report prompted a sharp riposte from Hong Kong (or as the UK media tends to say these days ‘Chinese’) authorities. If the government issues an angry statement about the Guardian’s coverage, they could point out that Cheung turned 20 in February. Or something.

Want to see a video of a guy (reportedly) being held in a jail made of mosquito nets on a Guangdong sidewalk?

And here’s a vid shot from a nimble Philippine coastguard vessel being chased by a PRC coastguard boat when a PLA navy destroyer suddenly cuts right into the path of the latter – and yes, they collide. Look for the hole knocked in the destroyer’s port bow (looks like a whole plate is stoved in, which makes you wonder whether the welding was as good as it could have been).

Action-packed government video on the dangers of ‘space oil’. We learn that ‘etomidate’ indeed rhymes with ‘date’ (as in calendar), not as in the Japanese family name. The key message is ‘Don’t vape it or you’ll die like a zombie’. The usual phrase is ‘die like a dog’, but perhaps whoever thought of renaming the drug ‘zombie oil’ at one stage insisted on portraying depraved teen addicts as the living dead – complete with gross boils on their filthy faces and bald patches where their hair has for some reason fallen out. It must have been fun to make.

Joshua Wong ‘collusion with foreign forces’ case will be heard in the High Court…

He is currently serving an almost five-year jail sentence under the Beijing-imposed national security law in a case linked to unofficial primaries.

While still in prison, he was arrested in June and charged with a second national security offence. The 28-year-old was accused of conspiring with self-exiled activist Nathan Law and “other persons unknown” between July 1 and November 23, 2020, to request foreign countries or individuals to engage in hostile activities against Hong Kong or China.

…Wong has not indicated how he will plead. Most national security law cases in Hong Kong have taken place in the High Court, where defendants face up to life imprisonment if convicted.

Someone really doesn’t want Joshua Wong out on the street, where he could be a rival source of power or something. See also: Long Hair.

Few noticed the G7’s recent statement on Hong Kong’s latest batch of arrest warrants for ‘absconders’. But the government did…

The spokesman said, “Those absconders hiding outside Hong Kong are wanted and subject to arrest warrants issued by the court, not because they ‘exercised freedom of expression’, but because they continue to blatantly engage in activities endangering national security there. The ‘Hong Kong Parliament’ is an organisation aiming to subvert the state power. Its objectives include promoting ‘self-determination’, promulgating the so-called ‘Hong Kong Constitution’, and overthrowing or undermining the basic system of the People’s Republic of China established by the Constitution of the People’s Republic of China or overthrowing the body of the central power of People’s Republic of China or the body of power of the HKSAR, etc. with unlawful means. We therefore have taken such measures to make a significant impact.”

HKFP reports…

A Taiwanese film has been axed from a film festival programme after it failed to meet requirements set by the Hong Kong government’s censorship requirements.

The Hong Kong International Film Festival said in a Facebook post on Wednesday that it had to cancel the screening of Family Matters.

…The film revolves around a four-member family in Taiwan’s historic Changhua city as they deal with issues including identity, fertility and relationship, according to its synopsis.

The film was honoured with a best feature film award at the New York Asian Film Festival in late July.

Focus Taiwan suggests what the problem is…

Taiwan … newspapers Liberty Times and United Daily News on Wednesday both cited sources as saying the cancellation was due to the appearance of the term “Min Kuo” (民國), a reference to the “Republic of China,” Taiwan’s official name, which is not recognized by China — officially the People’s Republic of China — as a sovereign state.

HK01, a Hong Kong-based online news outlet, reported the same day that, according to sources, at least seven Taiwanese films have been pulled from screenings in Hong Kong since 2021, when amendments to the FCO began requiring censors to consider whether a film’s screening would be “contrary to the interests of national security.”

(Chances are the phrase occurs in a date using the ROC’s quasi-dynastic calendar system, which counts years from 1911. For example, 2025 is 民國114年.)

If movies threaten a country’s national security, maybe it should beef up its navy? ASPI Strategist on Beijing’s fancy-looking ‘barges with legs’ – obviously designed to enable an invasion of Taiwan…

Since March, China has been making a splash with manoeuvres off its south coast involving a line of odd-looking barges with retractable legs that work like giant stilts. Taiwanese analysts aren’t impressed, however.

The barges have towers at their fronts that convert to long, drop-down bridges, so the vessels can connect to each other. If the first barge in a line of them touches the land, they can form a pier standing on the seabed and extending 800 metres or more to deeper water. Chinese soldiers, equipment and supplies could be offloaded from big ships that need that water depth, and the invasion force would have less need for ports.

Or so the theory goes.

As the piece points out, the mega-barges would be juicy targets for Taiwanese land-based forces. There’s also a problem with landing large numbers of troops, vehicles and equipment in one spot under fire – the attacker creates a huge traffic jam on the beach.

Maybe Chinese defence contractors have hit on an ingenious take on roll-on-roll-off ferries, or maybe this project is a result of too much money sloshing around for military R&D.

Since we’re ending the week on a Taiwan theme – a nice video about a book in Taiwanese, Mandarin, Scottish Gaelic and English. (When I was last in Taipei, I met a 10-year-old Hong Kong-born kid whose family had relocated and who could read any Chinese passage aloud in Mandarin, Cantonese and Taiwanese. A neat party trick.) 

The 80th anniversary of the end of World War II will be marked around the world, in various ways. In Hong Kong the government will organize…

…a series of events to commemorate the 80th anniversary of victory in the Chinese People’s War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War.

…[Cultural, Sports and Tourism minister Rosanna] Law said the Museum of History and Museum of the War of Resistance and Coastal Defence, are collaborating with two museums on the mainland to roll out a war-themed exhibition.

It seems likely that the exhibition will focus on national rather than the local experience (the fall of Hong Kong, life under Japanese occupation, etc). It will be interesting to see what sort of treatment it gives to such subjects as Chiang Kai-shek’s relations with Roosevelt and Churchill, the scale of ROC forces’ operations, and the role of US aid… 

She said such activities are aimed at cultivating people’s national identity and belonging, therefore building a consensus on defending the homeland and contributing to the nation’s development.

“We will fully leverage Hong Kong’s rich and unique cultural and historical resources to showcase our special contributions during the war, deepen cooperation with all sectors of society, promote patriotic spirit, and further enhance Hong Kong citizens’ correct understanding and sense of identity towards the nation,” Law said.

It will also be interesting to see how ‘deepening cooperation with all sectors of society’ comes into it.

HKFP reports that…

Nearly 80 per cent of the 93 vacancies in Hong Kong’s Election Committee –  which nominates and selects the city’s leader –  will see no competition in next month’s by-elections.

The committee also returns 40 of the 90 LegCo members in December.

Also – the first relative of an ‘absconder’ to be charged under NatSec laws appears in court…

[Kwok Yin-sang’s] daughter, Anna Kwok, who lives in the US, is wanted by national security police for suspected foreign collusion.

According to the charge sheet, Kwok Yin-sang allegedly attempted to obtain funds from an AIA International life and personal accident insurance policy that belonged to Anna Kwok between January 4 and February 27.

Wearing a green T-shirt and a black mask, Kwok Yin-sang said “not guilty” when asked by the court how he would plead.

The conspiracy crowd won’t be impressed, but a serious article in the Conversation dismisses the Covid ‘lab leak’ thing…

Sadly, the focus on the Wuhan Institute of Virology has distracted us from a far more important connection: that, like SARS-CoV-1 (which emerged in late 2002) before it, there’s a direct link between a coronavirus outbreak and a live animal market.

It has also distracted us from the role of Wuhan authorities in covering up the initial outbreak, thus helping the virus spread to the rest of the world. And it has contributed to the anti-science idiocy of the current US administration…

To assign the origin of SARS-CoV-2 to the Wuhan Institute of Virology requires a set of increasingly implausible “what if?” scenarios. These eventually lead to preposterous suggestions of clandestine bioweapon research.

The lab leak theory stands as an unfalsifiable allegation. If an investigation of the lab found no evidence of a leak, the scientists involved would simply be accused of hiding the relevant material. If not a conspiracy theory, it’s a theory requiring a conspiracy.

It provides a convenient vehicle for calls to limit, if not ban outright, gain-of-function research in which viruses with greatly different properties are created in labs. Whether or not SARS-CoV-2 originated in this manner is incidental.