Big Lychee, Various Sectors

…a chart from The Collective showing ‘projected bond issuances and debt repayment by the Hong Kong government over the next 5 years. By 2029-30, cumulative bond issuance will exceed HK$1 trillion, but it will also need to repay a total of $523 billion by then’. And a cartoon by VAWong Sir…

Lam Cheuk-ting gets three years in prison for being (as in ‘being’ beaten up) at the Yuen Long mob attack in 2019. Or at least ‘fanning the flames’. Six others received sentences of two to two and a half years…

…On that night, over 100 rod-wielding men dressed in white stormed the Yuen Long MTR station and attacked commuters and protesters coming home from a pro-democracy demonstration. Dozens – including Lam – were beaten and injured during the assault.

During the trial, Lam pleaded not guilty and said in his defence that he went to the station on that night as a lawmaker to mitigate violence and protect residents.

The official account of the incident evolved over a year, with the authorities eventually claiming it was a “gang fight” between two groups of people.

[Judge] Chan ruled that Lam’s presence at the station had provoked the white-clad men and his behaviour at the scene had “fanned the flames,” adding that the incident was a result of a confluence of “two typhoons.”

Which brings us to the Free Press on How Western Judges Became Chinese Puppets…

But last year, [Lord Sumption] witnessed a situation “so unattractive” he didn’t “want to be part of it anymore.”

The “turning point” for him was the prosecution of 47 people on political grounds. Known as the “Hong Kong 47,” the group of activists was first charged in 2021 for conspiracy to commit “subversion” after holding a primary election that would boost pro-democracy candidates—an act Sumption calls their “constitutional right.”

And yet, last May, 31 pleaded guilty, and 14 of the 16 who stood trial were convicted. Those 45 were sentenced to prison, with terms ranging from four to 10 years. It’s “a legally indefensible position,” said Sumption, driven by “fear of the pressure of China.”

That’s when Sumption had a realization: He had become part of China’s mission to squash dissent. Even though he did not take part in the rulings against the 47, in June 2024 he resigned from his post on Hong Kong’s highest court, along with another British judge, Lord Lawrence Collins.

In an op-ed published shortly after his departure, Sumption wrote that Hong Kong was “slowly becoming a totalitarian state.”

From a podcaster called Polymatter, a video titled How China Killed Hong Kong’s Economy. Annoying mispronunciation of ‘Beijing’ plus some obvious factual errors – but polemical enough to be fairly watchable. The land system, the lack of representative government and the impact on the economy of Beijing’s tighter grip post-2019. Essentially, the high land prices/low tax model would have been incompatible with democracy, and will now prove incompatible with the NatSec era.

Budget overview here. More details here. Whole thing here.

If an organization decides not to sell land as part of its annual budgeting process, you would assume it must be a real-estate company. Or, it’s the Hong Kong government. This policy announcement is actually about land use, and shouldn’t be in the budget at all – except our policymakers think they’re running a property business…

The Hong Kong government’s 12-month halt on the sale of commercial land will have limited effect in easing the supply glut in the city’s offices, as the moratorium does too little too late to slow the biggest onslaught of newly completed space in 17 years…

“Taking into account the high vacancy rate of office buildings in recent years and the sufficient supply in the next few years, the budget proposes not to put commercial land for sale next year to allow the market room to absorb the existing supply,” Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po said today. He added that the government may designate some commercial sites for other uses, and provide more flexibility in how the land will be used.

…current oversupply – expected to reach 3 million square feet in the coming months – would take between seven and 10 years to fully digest, said Hannah Jeong, head of valuation and advisory services at CBRE Hong Kong.

…the vacancy rate in grade A offices crept up to 13.3 per cent in January, from 13.2 per cent in December, according to JLL…

…Prime office rents slumped 62 per cent from a peak in October 2018, according to government data, as occupancy was slammed by the anti-government protests, the Covid-19 pandemic and the recession that followed the double-whammy blows. 

…Several new buildings are preparing to open their doors to tenants in the coming months. Sun Hung Kai Properties’ International Gateway Centre in West Kowloon will contribute 2.6 million sq ft.

Looking back, government, developers and investors made a huge mistake assuming that the rapid expansion of Mainland companies’ floorspace in the last decade would go on forever rather than go into reverse.

Some time around 2018, several colleagues of mine were putting together a deal to buy one floor of a second-grade office building in Central (maybe in Melbourne Plaza, or somewhere like that). This was their personal wealth, nothing to do with the company. (The company had in fact bought office space back in the 80s, and was enjoying superior profits to its peers simply because it didn’t have to pay rent.) They were investing around HK$100 million. I haven’t asked how it all went.

Perhaps the most obscure and irrelevant ‘solution’ to the budget deficit is the proposed legalization of gambling on basketball. Some people will wager on anything, so maybe there’s a market. Meanwhile – is any team sport more boring to watch than this? 

Unlike cricket or baseball – when 90% of the time participants are standing around waiting – there is plenty of action in basketball. The problem is that it’s the same action over and over. When the game was invented at a US college in the 1890s, players were just normal students, probably around 5ft 6 to 5ft 10 tall. So getting the ball into a basket 10ft off the ground was a real challenge and test of skill. Nowadays, pro players are usually at least 6ft 4, and quite a few are 7ft. Jumping up to the hoop is so easy for them that teams basically take it in turns to toss the ball into the other’s basket, and you end up with scores like 88-86. The game is a contest of tallness. (For basketball entertainment, check out the Filipino league playing at Lockhart Road Playground on Sundays. No player over 6ft.)

Meandering through the rest of the budget. The big thing, of course, is cost savings. Deficit reduction. Cuts. Belt-tightening. So what do we have? Ah yes: let’s devote a billion bucks to attract tourists from the Middle East. And a billion more for an AI hub-zone institute…

On Tuesday, Secretary for Innovation, Technology and Industry Sun Dong said more than 70 government departments had started to use a locally developed generative AI tool known as “HKGAI V1.”

Powered by China’s AI bot DeepSeek, the AI tool was developed by a research team led by the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST).

…The minister said the tool would soon be available for public use, adding he hoped that it would also be available for millions of overseas Chinese in the future.

“In this wave of technology exemplified by artificial intelligence, I am happy to tell you that Hong Kong is not absent,” Sun said in Mandarin. “Hong Kong scientists are great.”

And a one-year civil-service pay freeze.

Transit Jam is being charged with public disorder, apparently for complaining to cops about illegally parked vehicles. 

The government might raise the fine for illegal parking from HK$320 to HK$400, which won’t make any meaningful difference to either revenues or illegal parking.

And a comment pointing out that the fixed penalty for traffic offences is out of line with that for, say, spitting, and that a serious deterrent would in theory not raise any extra revenue if it succeeded in ending the problem of illegal parking.

With all that in mind, my modest proposal…

It seems that most streets in urban areas do not allow for metered or other parking, and are typically one-way but have two marked lanes, and maybe enough space in practice for three. Think Queens Road Central, or the dozens of side streets in North Point, Tsim Sha Tsui, etc. The logic presumably is that if one lane is blocked by a truck making a delivery or by an accident, the traffic can still move on the other lane. But in reality, the spare space is invariably used, illegally, for car storage.

Since that one lane is in fact blocked off and out of action all day, it follows that you could just physically bar cars from it and use it to make wider sidewalks for pedestrians, or bicycle lanes, or displays of panda bears – without disrupting traffic flow. (The cops do this on some streets for 24 hours leading up to fireworks displays or Halloween.)

The authorities could simply do this by installing removable barriers (so the extra lane could be cleared in an emergency). The point is that there would be only one lane accessible to traffic, which would be moving.

What about delivery vehicles, which perform a necessary function? There would be a small number of spaces reserved for them along these one-lane streets. But these spaces would also store high-visibility clamps/boots. A few local residents (say shopkeepers) would be trained to use them and given an app to take a photo and upload the details of any Alphard whose owner is stupid enough to use one of these spaces for parking. That enforcer would get (say) a HK$500 reward for each clamping. The app would also order a recovery truck to tow the clamped vehicle to a pound far, far away in the New Territories (with the truck operator earning, say, HK$1,000 for his time).

The owner could get his Alphard back after a nice long three-month period and upon payment of a HK$10,000 fine.

Problem solved, I suspect.

You could go further, and just pedestrianize many side streets, with some clamp-equipped delivery space at the end of the block. While we’re at it, phase out all metered parking too. I bet half the cars moving through urban streets are basically looking for a parking space. They wouldn’t be there if they knew they wouldn’t find one. And you could fire all the traffic wardens.

“But where would people park their cars?” Don’t know, don’t care. Ask the 90% of people who don’t have a car for further details. (Or – time for another app – create an online system for pre-booking and bidding/paying for spaces in actual off-street parking facilities. If you don’t get/can’t afford a slot, take the bus or train.)

I’m sure ‘One Country, Two Systems’ AI under development could play a role…

More than 70 Hong Kong government departments have started using the beta version of a locally developed ChatGPT-style artificial intelligence (AI) tool powered by DeepSeek’s data learning model, the city’s innovation chief has said.

The new tool, named “HKGAI V1” and developed by the Hong Kong Generative AI Research and Development Centre (HKGAI) under the government’s InnoHK innovation programme, is expected to be made available to the industry and the public soon.

Secretary for Innovation, Technology and Industry Sun Dong said on Tuesday that the launch of DeepSeek earlier this year took the world by storm, prompting the centre’s research team to integrate the Hangzhou-based AI start-up’s data learning model with the processing capabilities of the “HKGAI V1” model.

“It fully embodies the values of ‘one country, two systems’ in Hong Kong, leading to the successful launch of ‘HKGAI V1’,” the minister said, as the tool debuted at a global launching ceremony at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST).

“From the centre’s inception to the official release of Hong Kong’s self-developed large language model, this journey from inception to creation inscribes a wonderful innovation legend beneath Lion Rock…”

Name 70 government departments.

The Jimmy Lai verdict – the NatSec trial started in December 2023 – is expected in October…

Lai has pleaded not guilty to two conspiracy charges of collusion with foreign forces under the Beijing-imposed national security law, and a third of conspiring to publish “seditious” materials under a colonial-era law. He could be jailed for life if convicted.

Last week, the start date of a national security trial against members of the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China – the now-disbanded group that was once behind the city’s Tiananmen crackdown vigil – was also delayed to November, after judges considered their schedules due to Lai’s case.

Albert Ho, Lee Cheuk-yan and Chow Hang-tung were charged alongside the alliance itself with inciting subversion of state power under the Beijing-imposed national security law. They could be jailed for life if convicted.

The trial was originally set to begin on May 6.

National Review review of Mark Clifford’s The Troublemaker…

Shortly after the October 2023 Synod in Rome, ten Catholic bishops from around the world released a public statement calling for the immediate and unconditional release from prison of Jimmy Lai, the Hong Kong entrepreneur, media executive, and human rights activist. Lai was awaiting a show trial (which continues today) on charges of having violated a draconian “national security” law that was adopted in 2020 and aimed at crushing what was left of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement. At the time of the bishops’ appeal, Lai had been imprisoned in solitary confinement for almost 1,000 days, and the prelates were polite but firm: “There is no place for such cruelty and oppression in a territory that claims to uphold the rule of law and respect the right to freedom of expression.”

The over-the-top response from the Hong Kong authorities and their local media mouthpieces to this plea for decency was grossly out of proportion to the bishops’ request, and all the more telling for that.

The government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) reacted with a tirade that would have done Dr. Goebbels proud, back in the day: “The HKSAR Government firmly rejects and strongly disapproves of the fact-twisting remarks made by foreign Catholic leaders to inappropriately interfere in the HKSAR’s internal affairs and the HKSAR courts’ independent exercise of judicial power. Any person, regardless of his or her identity, who attempts to interfere with the judicial proceedings in the HKSAR in order to procure a defendant’s evasion of the criminal justice process is blatantly undermining the rule of law of the HKSAR.”

HKSAR’s oxymoronic “secretary for justice,” Paul Lam Ting-kwok, piled on, claiming that the bishops’ statement was “absolutely unacceptable in principle,” and warned that anyone making a statement such as the bishops’ was perverting the course of justice and risked being charged with criminal contempt of court

…The Hong King authorities have done everything possible to humiliate, and then break, this now 77-year-old man, who could have fled Hong Kong and lived comfortably anywhere in the world: Jimmy is brought to his trial in chains, with an escort of screaming police cars — a scenario not quite as grotesquely cruel as the hurdles on which the English martyrs were dragged to Tyburn Hill in the days of Henry VIII, but deliberately dehumanizing in the same way. The paradox, however, is that this deliberate degradation has made Jimmy Lai stronger: “He is living in complete freedom,” {His wife] Teresa told Clifford, who complements that affirmation with his own: Jimmy “has a clear goal: maintain his innocence and continue to resist his captors with dignity and honor. He knows what he is doing. Behind bars since the last day of 2020, now with his prison window boarded up, he has been purified by the experience, approaching it as a spiritual quest and a test of his faith.”

In persecuting Jimmy Lai, China is telling the world important things the world needs to know about what Clifford aptly limns as “the cruelty and barbarity of the Chinese communist system.” In telling Jimmy Lai’s story with both honesty and admiration, Mark Clifford has not only done his friend a great service; he has offered a warning about the character of a regime to which far too many are eager to kowtow.

From the Manchester China Institute, a short discussion by Jeffrey Wassesrstrom on the links between Hunger Games, the Milk Tea Alliance and Hong Kong’s resistance movement.

Opinion piece in the Hill by former China YouTuber Matthew Tye, asking whether the platform is promoting pro-Beijing content…

I believe YouTube is actively promoting pro-Chinese government, anti-American content while suppressing voices critical of China’s communist regime. Why? Because it is happening to me.

…Our audience grew rapidly [after we left China]. During our coverage of China’s role in creating the COVID-19 pandemic, we saw the Chinese government attempting to control the narrative by having videos removed, attacking companies that sponsored us and actively promoting false stories about the pandemic. The Chinese government, apparently by mistake, even contacted us offering $2,000 if we would upload a pre-made video blaming the pandemic on white-tailed deer in the U.S. Several western YouTubers did in fact upload this same video, perhaps after receiving similar incentives.

China’s online strategy shifted late last year, at a time when YouTube’s algorithms changed as well. Right after the U.S. election — despite our not covering U.S. politics or the election — viewership across all three of our channels fell off a cliff.

We have since studied this overnight collapse in viewership. In a sample of six videos prior to November 2024, my channel was averaging 448,000 views per video. My first six videos after the U.S. election averaged just 125,000 views — 72 percent less. In the same time frame, Winston’s channel plunged from an average 534,000 views per video to just 178,000, a drop of 67 percent. Our collaborative weekly show, The China Show, saw a drop of about 25 percent during this same period.

One thing he and his collaborator found is that their videos received far more views when they gave them apparently anti-US/pro-China titles.

From AFP via HKFP, a look at Hong Kong’s  ‘mammoth’ budget deficit…

The Chinese finance hub last saw a string of deficits after the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s — but their scale was a fraction of the HK$252 billion (US$32.4 billion) shortfall in the 2020-21 fiscal year.

Hong Kong has recorded annual deficits exceeding US$20 billion in three of the past four years, according to official figures.

…While Chan earlier predicted a return to surplus in “three or so years”, a former government minister told AFP that the situation is “not just due to economic cycles” spurred by the coronavirus pandemic.

“If you look at Hong Kong versus other economies in the region, for example Singapore, those other economies have done much better,” said Anthony Cheung, who oversaw transport and housing policies.

Adding to the headache is the exodus of companies and high-paid workers as the city’s international reputation took a hit after Beijing quelled pro-democracy protests and imposed a sweeping national security law in 2020.

…The city’s economic fortunes are ultimately tied to how investors view the city as a regional and global hub, said Cheung, the former minister.

“We have to continue to showcase Hong Kong as a city that welcomes all kinds of views, all kinds of people, so long as they stay within the parameters of the national security legislation,” Cheung said.

The government does not appreciate suggestions that the post-2019 ‘second handover’ NatSec order might play a role in Hong Kong’s economic predicament. It’s impossible to disentangle the ‘NatSec’ effect from other factors. For example, Covid would have hit the economy under any circumstances; but the new ‘all-patriot’ leadership made things x% worse by insisting on emulating Beijing’s zero-Covid approach well after the rest of the world started opening up. If it were possible to measure different underlying causes, China’s post-bubble economic slowdown would account for the bulk of the problem. Looking forward, global backlashes against China’s over-production will increasingly weigh in.

As for what to do about it, we’ve been over this before. As the article says, the Northern Metropolis project looks likely to go ahead. If used wisely (if), the land freed up by rezoning and other measures could deliver decent affordable housing on such a scale as to offer economic stimulus in its own right. Imagine what households could do if they spent less on housing. The Lantau reclamation looks, literally, dead in the water, though officials don’t want to admit it. 

Anyone can think up relatively small measures like trimming elderly transport subsidies or jacking up parking fines, which might make sense but don’t impact the numbers much. Few want to consider major shifts in revenue and expenditure, as the Budget will no doubt show.

On the tax side, the main serious options are higher salaries/profits tax rates, or a (more regressive) sales tax. All of which might harm economic activity anyway. There’s a danger that officials will try to resurrect the old high-land-price housing-scam fiscal model, which has done so much to distort the economy (and create public discontent) in the past. Land revenues, the article says, were US$21 billion in 2018 and US$ 2.5 billion last year. That way, they might calculate, they can protect their own over-inflated pay packages. Because, probably, the only responsible way out is a long (five-10 years?) civil-service pay freeze.

If we are looking to trim a little here and a little there – how about having fewer people who are ‘innocent until proven guilty’ in jail? David Webb’s latest update. As of end-2024, 38.8% of incarcerated people in Hong Kong were on remand – ie awaiting trial. Add in those detained under immigration laws, and that’s 40.2%, or 3,889, of people in custody who have not been convicted. Both the percentage and the total number are records.

The government plans to make sure independent Hong Kong unions do not pose a NatSec or foreign-influence risk…

The Hong Kong government has proposed legislative amendments to permanently bar those convicted of national security offences from serving in labour unions and to require all foreign funding to be vetted by the authorities.

…To bar funding from an “external force” that would endanger national security, the government proposed that unions must make an application to the registrar declaring the source and usage of the funds provided, according to a document submitted to the Legislative Council. “Trade unions shall not receive such funds unless approved by the Registrar,” it said.

According to the document, the amendments to the ordinance would adopt the same definition of “external force” under the city’s homegrown national security legislation, to cover foreign governments, political parties, and external organisations “that pursue political ends,” as well as their related personnel.

…As national security offences are “more serious” than existing crimes that would bar one from serving in a union, including fraud, dishonesty, extortion, and triad activities, “we consider that stricter restrictions should be imposed,” the government said in its proposal.

Are there any reasons to suspect that any unions pose some sort of threat to national security?

And a student union cancels the showing of a Burmese film about human rights after officials warn that it might be breaking the law.

Some Taiwanese-themed light relief from YouTube…

Everyday life of an expat family (presumably American) in Taiwan in 1960. They had a maid, great cars, and flew on Civil Air Transport flights (of CIA-front fame).

A 19-minute rom-com called Mentalese Express (turn on subtitles). Set in an office elevator in Taiwan day by day, a young Japanese male expat and a local girl want to get to know each other but don’t dare actually talk. Not a great title, but full of hilarious awkwardness. (Not sure what she sees in the guy.)

Apparently, Australian-born actress Joanne Missingham is one of Taiwan’s top Go players. And if you liked the short film, check out the little BTS documentary about how they shot it. (That’s ‘behind the scenes’, duh.)

The Democratic Party considers disbanding. Along with other pan-dem groups, they are barred from participation in what was once a semi-representative electoral process for the legislature and district councils. In a system that does not recognize the independent voices of civil society, they have no standing in public life. 

So why have they carried on? Perhaps in the hope that the authorities might one day calm down and give a little symbolic space back to opposition bodies. Or more likely out of a calculation that it’s simply not worth the hassle – and maybe the government will simply look weaker for driving another harmless/inert pressure group out of existence…

Martin Lee, a veteran democrat who was the founding chairperson of the Democratic Party in 1994, told the paper that he had no communication with the current executive committee, but he was “not surprised” about the talk of disbandment.

Lo, who was re-elected chair in December following a change of term for the party’s executive committee, said at that time that the party still represents “a slice of residents” but acknowledged that the party carries less influence than before.

…Multiple members of the party have been jailed or detained, including Helena Wong and Lam Cheuk-ting, as well as former chairs Wu Chi-wai and Albert Ho.

Members of Democratic Party, as well as their families and employers, have received harassing messages and letters in the run-up to its internal election, Lo said last November.

A couple of videos, via Twitter…

‘Absconder’ Chloe Cheung on the BBC.

And an interview with Mark Clifford, author of The Troublemaker, on Jimmy Lai.

An NYT op-ed looks at the other huge threat to global trade…

China now dominates global manufacturing, and its trade surplus dwarfs the biggest run by Germany and Japan during their eras of postwar export supremacy. Countries around the world get cheap Chinese products, but they can’t sell nearly as many of their own to China. Their export sectors are hurting — see Germany — and not hiring.

Why is Mr. Xi doing this? To make up for the Chinese government’s mismanagement of its domestic economy.

The author recounts China’s longstanding over-investment and under-consumption, and its recent property bust…

Mr. Xi’s response to the Covid pandemic also played a role. To cushion the pandemic’s economic shock, advanced economies around the world opened up their government checkbooks to support consumer spending. The one major economy that didn’t take significant steps to stimulate its economy and support households was the country where the virus first took hold: China. He is ideologically opposed to cutting government checks or anything else that smacks of welfarism, believing that consumer stimulus — unlike investment — generates no lasting value. So while consumers in the United States and elsewhere began spending again, including on Chinese imports, China was able to recover on the back of other countries’ stimulus checks while throwing everything into building out its manufacturing sector to replace the growth that property wasn’t providing.

In other words, Mr. Xi is making China’s trade partners and competitors pay for the government’s misplaced bet on real estate and its longer-term failure to strengthen the spending of Chinese households.

…Mr. Xi has a one-way vision of trade. Mr. Trump often sounds as if he doesn’t believe in any trade. Between the two of them, the global economy is in for a rough ride.

The four stats to remember (give or take a percentage point): China has 20% of the world’s population, and accounts for 20% of the global economy; and it produces 37% of global manufactures, and accounts for just 13% of global consumption.

NatSec police bring in another relative of former District Council member Carmen Lau for questioning. A week ago, they brought in her uncle and aunt. She says the latest to be interviewed is a ‘distant’ relative (apparently her sister-in-law).

As an ‘absconder’, Lau is wanted for ‘inciting secession and colluding with a foreign country or with external elements to endanger national security’, with police offering a HK$1 million reward for her. (See Brian Kern’s list from three weeks ago.)

So what exactly do the NatSec cops ask when they sit an absconder’s parent, sibling, cousin or ex-colleague down in an interrogation room? ‘When did you last email your niece?’ ‘Did they send you a Christmas card?’ ‘Did you give them laisee?’ The people brought in typically seem to spend several hours in the police station. Are they being questioned the whole time, or are they sipping government tea while hanging around waiting for someone with a clipboard to see them for five minutes? (And are the authorities already tapping relevant persons’ phones and thus know the answers anyway?)

Foreign Affairs looks at how Donald Trump wants to turn the US into a ‘competitive authoritarian’ country, like Hungary or Turkey (where oppositions and elections exist, but the playing field is rigged)…

The most visible means of weaponizing the state is through targeted prosecution. Virtually all elected autocratic governments deploy justice ministries, public prosecutors’ offices, and tax and intelligence agencies to investigate and prosecute rival politicians, media companies, editors, journalists, business leaders, universities, and other critics. In traditional dictatorships, critics are often charged with crimes such as sedition, treason, or plotting insurrection, but contemporary autocrats tend to prosecute critics for more mundane offenses, such as corruption, tax evasion, defamation, and even minor violations of arcane rules. If investigators look hard enough, they can usually find petty infractions such as unreported income on tax returns or noncompliance with rarely enforced regulations.

Some places, of course, do both.

Just in: Ted Hui’s assets, transferred to his family, are confiscated.

AP looks at Hong Kong’s subdivided apartments…

Jimmy Au’s world shrinks to about the size of a parking space whenever she gets home.

Her cramped Hong Kong home is one of four units carved out of what was once a single apartment. Most of the space is occupied by the bunk bed she shares with her husband and son, and their sleep is often disrupted by neighbors returning late or heading out early. Au’s son often gets bruises bumping into things. Privacy is limited, with only a curtain separating the bathroom from the kitchen.

But what troubles Au most about her home is that she might lose it. 

HKFP on a sociologist’s work on people living in the tiny homes…

[Sociologist Ruby Lai] Lai and her research partners spent two years doing intensive fieldwork in Kwai Chung, Tai Kok Tsui and Kwun Tong. Their research findings were later turned into an art exhibition in one of the districts.

Also in HKFP – the landlords’ side of the subdivided flats story…

Chan told HKFP that he rented a 900-square-foot flat in North Point at the market rate of HK$29,000, turned it into six subdivided units and leased them for a total of HK$40,000 per month.

Charging around HK$6,500 monthly rent for each of over 600 units, Chan’s company rakes in a HK$1 million profit each month after taking maintenance and administrative costs into account.

While he is unwilling to risk the legal repercussions once the new law is in effect, he also said that remodelling each subdivided unit expected to be deemed illegal under the new regulation would not be economically justifiable.

Renovation companies told him it would cost around HK$150,000 to renovate a single subdivided unit in compliance with the proposed standards. Even if he has the funds for the renovations, it may take years to break even on the extra costs, he said.

Yes, landlords face problems too. While it’s easy to demonize them for high rents, they do not cause the underlying problem – a shortage of housing resulting from government policy.

TransitJam introduces ‘probably the first tourist destination in the world to have its own website showing you how to leave it’…

…police launch the Kai Tak Easy Leave website which apparently harnesses the “power of AI” to show people the best way to get away from Kai Tak Stadium.

From Bloomberg an interview with Mark Clifford, author of The Troublemaker…

You can’t separate the legal campaign being waged against Jimmy from what’s happening in Hong Kong more broadly. We had a listed company. The majority shareholders’ voting rights were taken away without a court order. Then our bank accounts were frozen. We had almost a thousand staff. We couldn’t pay them because the bank accounts were frozen. But then the government’s labor tribunal took us to court because we didn’t pay people. We had four separate investigations against us. When you’re on the other end of the state coming after you, it’s really freaky. I had to hire my own lawyers and it’s scary, even though I’m sitting in the States and I’ve done nothing wrong…

…What we’re saying is, you’re not going to normalize this until you start letting people out. And of course, Jimmy’s not the only one. We think there are close to a thousand people in prison. A lot of those people are going to get out in the next year or two. Their lives are going to be forever scarred. But you’ve got to start easing up on Hong Kong, and then maybe the US can start thinking about easing up on sanctions.

…He’s the most prominent or influential independent Chinese language media in the world. I mean, the guy’s just sizzling with ideas. Why do you want to lock up a job and wealth creator like that?

The Guardian on the intimidation of lawyers acting for Lai in the UK…

UK-based lawyers have spoken out about being targeted by the Chinese state and its supporters in a campaign of intimidation including surveillance, hacking of bank accounts and rape threats.

The barristers, from Doughty Street Chambers in London, say there has been a coordinated and concerted campaign against them since they began acting for the jailed Hong Kong pro-democracy activist and media mogul, Jimmy Lai, three years ago.

Caoilfhionn Gallagher KC said she had received threats via email and social media of dismemberment, rape and death, which have extended to her family in recent months.

“I had a threat to rape one of my children because of my work,” she said.

The BBC profiles another ‘enemy of the Chinese state’ in the UK…

Just over a year ago, Chloe Cheung was sitting her A-levels. Now she’s on a Chinese government list of wanted dissidents.

The choir girl-turned-democracy activist woke up to news in December that police in Hong Kong had issued a $HK1 million … reward for information leading to her capture abroad.

“I actually just wanted to take a gap year after school,” Chloe, 19, who lives in London, told the BBC. “But I’ve ended up with a bounty!”

From Brian Kern/Kong Tsung-gan, a list of all the civil society, media and other independent organizations that have closed down in Hong Kong since 2019/NatSec. Quite a list, including Apple Daily. He also mentioned those groups still operating…

In one category are those that attempt to stick to their original purpose. Examples are the political party, League of Social Democrats, and the labor group, Hong Kong Journalists Association. Both have been repeatedly targeted by the regime for persecution. (There will be a future Hong Kong Repression Monitor article on LSD as a case study in the various forms of harassment they have had to endure. HKJA is subjected to constant petty persecution, from harassment of members of its executive committee to repeatedly thwarted attempts to book football pitches.) Independent bookstores largely flew under the radar in the first stages of the attacks on civil society, but after some of the bigger targets were wiped out, the regime has targeted independent bookstores for constant “inspections” by various governmental agencies. As a result, two have closed and others continue to operate under besieged circumstances. (There will also be a future Hong Kong Repression Monitor article on book censorship in Hong Kong which will focus on the persecution of independent bookstores.)

In another category are those that have “adapted.” This means they have ceased being critical of the regime and have largely “harmonized” their operations so as to avoid any attacks by the regime. Examples here are the Hong Kong Bar Association, which used to be strongly critical of the regime on legal issues and a bulwark against attempts by the regime to erode rule of law and human rights protections, and the Foreign Correspondents’ Club, which used to speak out on human rights issues in general and those pertaining to freedom of the press in particular, hosting controversial speakers and running the Asian Human Rights Press Awards. The public broadcaster Radio Television Hong Kong has also been harmonized: once an independent outlet similar to the BBC in the UK, it has become a mouthpiece of the regime, more similar to Xinhua in China.

Also mentioned in the list is HKPORI, subject of a HKFP op-ed…

The government needs to meet the expectations of the community. How do officials know what these expectations are except via credible, scientifically conducted, publicly available polls? This is what PORI delivers.

In 2018, the government declared that it sought to be transparent, open and accountable to the public “as much as possible.” Polling outfits like PORI and the media are part of the infrastructure for holding the government to account. They bring to public notice issues of concern to the public.

The relationship between the political class and polling is conflicted. Leaders praise polls that support them, but condemn polls, the pollsters and their methods when they do not. Leaders need to recognise that polls and pollsters are the message and the messenger. Credibility depends on delivering the good and the bad. In this, officials are mostly opportunistic.

A Jamestown Foundation China Brief article on apparent reconnaissance and sabotage against Taiwan’s undersea communications cables… 

Later in January, another Hong Kong-registered vessel was reported loitering for nearly a month close to the coast of southern Taiwan. The Vasili Shukshin, a Belize-flagged, Russian-operated cargo vessel, spent December 19, 2024 to January 14, 2025 in the general area from Kaohsiung to the Hengchun Peninsula. The vessel did not enter port and maneuvered on a track that made little sense in commercial terms. As one maritime analyst described it, “the vessel was aimlessly criss-crossing the area near Taiwan’s Fangshan undersea cable landing station for 3.5 weeks for no apparent reason.” It eventually exited the area and returned to the Russian Pacific port of Vostochnyy.

Also from Jamestown – what’s behind the odd leadership changes in the PLA?

…possible motivations include combating corruption, managing factional conflicts, asserting dominance as an aging autocrat, overcoming limited military service experience, and following successful historical precedents for control.