Big Lychee, Various Sectors

If it’s not the LegCo elections, it’s the National Games. A major border crossing will close for nine hours to make way for a marathon…

Authorities said the Shenzhen Bay Port will be closed on Saturday morning to make way for the National Games marathon, as they called on travellers and motorists to use other border checkpoints.

The Shenzhen Bay Port will not be open to the public from 2am to 11am on Saturday.

Plenty of roads downtown will be affected as well.

Is this the event where they carry a torch? Out of curiosity, I Google it, and find one hell of a website dedicated to the whole NatGams®. It seems the Games have in fact already begun. I honestly hadn’t noticed.

Would a sudden outbreak of sports taking place all over Hong Kong and beyond be so easily ignored if it were the Olympics? It wouldn’t be for another 11 years – but even so, this is scary…

With the 15th National Games unfolding, International Olympic Committee (IOC) Honorary President for life Thomas Bach noted the Greater Bay Area (GBA) has all the necessary conditions to host the Olympic Games.

Bach made his comments when watching the rugby sevens event at the Kai Tak Stadium this afternoon. He was accompanied by local sports figures, including the president of the Sports Federation & Olympic Committee of Hong Kong (SF&OC) Timothy Fok Tsun-ting [and others]

…Bach highlighted that GBA is equipped with numerous world-class sports facilities that qualify it as a potential Olympic host.

Bach agreed that [a 2036 bid]  is worth exploring. He acknowledged that the venues may be dispersed, but the successful hosting of large-scale national events like the National Games positions Hong Kong and the GBA as strong candidates for future Olympic bids.

His Majesty the Honorary President for Life isn’t sounding totally enthusiastic. But then we’re not at the envelopes-under-tables stage yet. 

All I can say is: No no no no no no no. Complete nightmare.

Which brings us back to the LegCo election. RTHK tries to make one of the all-patriots’ forums sound interesting…

Speeding up the construction of the Northern Metropolis is the consensus among all five candidates in the New Territories North constituency in the upcoming Legislative Council elections, who spoke at a government-organised election forum on Wednesday.

One interesting thing about the government-organized NT North non-debate: the backdrop (‘2025 LegCo “Patriots United in Governing Hong Kong” Forum’) was in Chinese only. I couldn’t care less. But I get the impression that officials usually ensure such signage is bilingual – except when it’s some hardcore Motherland-oriented event in which, say, the PLA garrison commander addresses local schoolkids about NatSec and panda bears. You may draw your own conclusions.

Why pay attention to fake elections? Partly, perhaps, for amusement. But also because they tell us something. Courtesy of a commentator, a CSIS analysis explains…

Because authoritarian elections are performative, they reflect important information about the concerns and weaknesses of these regimes.

All 161 candidates in Hong Kong’s December LegCo election have passed the vetting procedure performed by the Candidate Eligibility Review Committee, part of the Chief Executive’s office…

[Chief Secretary Eric] Chan said confirming the candidates’ eligibility early allowed them to begin their election campaign sooner, as the polls are less than a month away. He called on the candidates to seize the opportunity to demonstrate their aspirations and showcase the city’s “high-quality election culture” by competing on their platforms professionally and fairly.

“This will display healthy competition and a positive, high-quality election culture, embodying Hong Kong’s high-quality democracy,” he said in Cantonese.

…On Monday, the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office published an article under a pen name, hailing the 161 confirmed candidates as “patriotic, committed, competent, aspirational, and excellent.”

(And ‘high-quality’, surely?)

The office said that while some incumbent lawmakers decided not to seek re-election, more than 50 others are running again for another term. This aligns with “the principle of orderly replacement in democratic elections,” it said.

The office went on to say that the candidates should compete on their abilities and the merit of their platforms, while “ingrained bad practices” such as forming factions must be “resolutely rejected.”

They 161 presumably all passed because, in order to gain the preliminary candidacy, they had to be nominated by people who are themselves the result of similar screening and selection procedures. Why bother duplicating the process?

Under the ‘all-patriot’ system, we don’t have opposition candidates in elections any more, which is why many struggle to see the polls as real. Yet the government puts a lot of effort into making it look like an authentic election. Hence we have several different parties (all with the same pro-government platforms) apparently competing for votes. And we have what were once called debates, but are now ‘Patriots Collaborate for Good Governance’ forums…

There will be a total of 39 forums, covering the Election Committee constituency, 10 geographical constituencies and 28 functional constituencies.

Candidates and voters of the respective constituencies of all geographical constituencies, functional constituencies and the Election Committee constituency, as well as members of the public will be invited to attend the forums. The format of the forums, which may comprise self-introduction by candidates, mobilisation of campaign teams, a question-and-answer session and a debate on a specified topic, will be tailored according primarily to the respective constituencies. Candidates will be able to fully present their election platforms, viewpoints on different topics, visions and aspirations…

Attendance by members of the public is by invitation-only. The first one reportedly had no debate of any sort…

[Constitutional Affairs Minister Erick] Tsang emphasiz[ed] the enthusiastic turnout and lively campaigning atmosphere … [and] described the proceedings as smooth and the atmosphere as vibrant.

The Standard’s editorial (was this one written by a human?) says…

The official kick-off of the Legislative Council election debate was met with anticipation, yet it culminated in a sense of unfulfilled promise.

While the atmosphere was charged with potential, the debate itself failed to deliver the intellectual fireworks the public had hoped for. Instead of a dynamic clash of ideas, the session was dominated by a parade of well-prepared but ultimately monochromatic presentations. 

New contestants, though polished, largely stuck to introducing their platforms and personal credentials. The crucial element of a mutual questioning session that forces candidates to think on their feet and defend their policies – was conspicuously absent. While supporters in the audience did their best to stimulate energy, the stage itself lacked the spontaneous combustion that defines a truly compelling political debate. In a nutshell, the event proceeded without a spark.

…The future debates in this election cycle must be restructured to be more interactive and confrontational. The goal should be to create a spectacle of substance that not only informs but also energizes the electorate, giving them a compelling reason to care and, ultimately, to vote.

(Pretty sure that’s not AI.)

In fairness, people watching the events livestreamed might at least get an idea of who the many unheard-of candidates are.

The weird thing about this is that the CCP specifically and openly rejects multiparty democracy and contested elections (and separation of powers/checks and balances). Why bother pretending to have a system that Beijing itself says is unsuited for China?

A British snooker player called Ronnie O’Sullivan does a video with the Immigration Dept boss promoting the LegCo election. The Brit (who sounds like thug in a Guy Ritchie movie) probably has no clue what LegCo is. He has briefly been a resident of Hong Kong, courtesy of a talent visa, but some reports suggest he is decamping to oh-so classy and wholesome Dubai. It’s all here.

Top officials at the Customs Dept do a similar vid, featuring themselves in a barber shop.

Reminder: in Hong Kong, while it is legal to encourage people to vote, it is illegal to encourage them not to, even though it is legal not to vote. Has anyone worked out how this equates with any sort of legal logic?

Simplified Chinese characters account for around 5% of the broadly accepted total number (roughly 50,000) of Chinese characters, but more like a third of the most commonly used 5,000 or so. Most readers can infer the meaning of a simplified character from context. It is also easy, using a Chinese word processing app, to convert text between traditional and simplified characters at the touch of a button; each simplified character has just one traditional counterpart. 

The nearest equivalent in English would be attempts to strip spelling down to the basics. In both cases, the reformed method of writing is probably easier to learn. But remove etymology from words. And to many, it just looks ugly. This is the sort of change that has to be imposed. 

A Hong Kong school says it will accept simplified Chinese in examinations. Local parents are unhappy, and local officials also voice their disagreement. And then, a (perhaps predictable) twist: Beijing’s local representatives and media contradict them, and hint that simplified will be the way to go in the future. They seem especially upset because traditional characters remind them of Taiwan…

The [Ta Kung Pao] article ends with a call for the city to “face reality and adjust its mindset” to deepen the city’s integration with the rest of China. While this piece is not a formal order from Beijing, it still suggests that China may be issuing orders for Hong Kong to follow.

Watch local officials change their tune on simplified characters.

Another feature of Mainland life is the use of young women as official or corporate decoration. Airlines and government bodies recruit female ancillary staff for their nubile looks and demeanour. They must be the same height and have the same general appearance. They are trained to walk a certain way, smile a certain way and serve food and drinks with choreographed precision. There are ornamental male assistants as well, but the most famous example is the tea ladies at the NPC (the synchronized figures in crimson). 

And now, the practice comes to Hong Kong…

The SCMP reports…

For months, Kristin Ngai has been practising smiling while biting onto a chopstick at home, ensuring she shows six to eight teeth – the standard required to be one of the 75 volunteer prize presentation assistants from Hong Kong for the National Games this month.

In addition to smiling, the 30-year-old bank clerk said they were also trained for three days to stand, sit and walk in specific ways, as they would be under the spotlight, helping with the presentation of medals as well as guiding athletes onto the stage.

…She also said that, ahead of the Games, volunteers were told to not gain weight so they could fit into the pink gowns that had been tailor-made for them and they should not wear nail polish or have visible tattoos.

“There is also an interesting request,” Ngai said. “We shouldn’t be too tanned, to achieve a more ‘oriental beauty’ complexion. The hair should also be kept quite dark.”

Through two rounds of interviewing, Ngai said she had to introduce herself in Mandarin and was tested on how she would carry trays with bottled water while she walked.

Presumably no South Asians need apply.

China Daily reports increased competition and diversity in December’s LegCo election…

Authorities had received a total of 161 nominations of aspirants vying for one of 90 seats in the upcoming legislature poll in Hong Kong on Dec 7, as the two-week nomination period drew to a close at 5 pm on Thursday.

The nominations, over 20 percent of which are for women — higher than in the last poll — set the stage for contested races across all constituencies, with officials renewing calls to the public to cast their votes.

Following the close of nominations, Legislative Council President Andrew Leung Kwan-yuen said that the candidates are of high quality and that all seats are contested. He urged the public to exercise their right to vote, emphasizing that “every vote counts”.

…senior officials, including Secretary for Justice Paul Lam Ting-kwok, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Algernon Yau Ying-wah, Secretary for the Civil Service Ingrid Yeung Ho Poi-yan, and Secretary for Home and Youth Affairs Alice Mak Mei-kuen, have also been mobilizing legal, business, local, and minority communities through meetings and street outreaches to vote for capable and patriotic legislators and help shape Hong Kong’s future.

The Standard has a list. Not many familiar names – Starry Lee, Holden Chow in the geographical seats. Priscilla, Junius, Rock and Doctor Elizabeth down in the Election Committee bunch.

After having to pay HK$57,000 to the tax department after an intensive audit that found a HK$3,000 discrepancy over a seven-year period, HKFP receives HK$141,000 in donations from its readers.

The LegCo election has no bearing on how Hong Kong is run. A chamber of pro-government ‘all-patriots’ won’t ask hard questions or debate alternative policy approaches, let alone try to stall unpopular measures. But the process and outcome of the heavily staged polls tells us about the authorities’ concerns behind closed doors.

The new body of lawmakers will be quite a bit younger than its predecessor, with few if any members whose public lives predate 1997. Quite a few are likely to be individuals who had no public presence prior to 2019. This is likely to include people with no previous ties to pro-Beijing political groups, and some who have Mainland business and other links. This suggests that the higher powers want a more uniformly reliable pool of people who can be groomed for higher-profile roles in the future. 

The authorities also seem to be seriously concerned about boosting the credibility of both the election and the resulting council. This is an uphill struggle. The shift to an ‘all-patriots’ legislature entailed the introduction of multiple – indeed, superfluous – barriers to candidacy in the form of nomination and screening systems, ensuring only a select few can get on the ballot. Competition and charisma are in short supply. At the same time, the percentage of seats filled by universal suffrage has shrunk.

Officials are trying hard to squeeze a higher turnout from what is inevitably going to be a largely apathetic electorate. The government is encouraging civil servants to vote, and everyone is invited to follow the progress of comely candidate ex-fencer Vivian Kong.

A Reuters piece explains…

Some analysts say Kong’s star allure and fighting spirit will help spotlight an institution criticized as a pro-Beijing echo chamber with little authentic debate, that drew a record low turnout of 30.2% in 2021.

Senior Hong Kong officials have sought to drum up voter participation after the poor previous showing, while major chambers of commerce, several Chinese state-owned enterprises and some Hong Kong companies have urged people to vote.

Telecom operator PCCW said it would provide half a day of paid leave for staffers to cast ballots, local media reported.

“Beijing wants to rejuvenate the profile of candidates through Vivian Kong’s participation, such that more young people will be aware of the election,” said Sonny Lo, a political scientist who has authored several books on Hong Kong politics.

(Don’t call PCCW that day: “All our lines are busy. Please hold for another four hours until our customer service assistant returns from her half-day off.”)

A former HKU professor is given seven years for the manslaughter of his wife, after appealing an earlier sentence of life for murder. As several commentators have pointed out, this is barely more than the six years and nine months many of the HK47, like Long Hair, received for ‘conspiracy to commit subversion’ – participating in a primary election. Several, including Gwyneth Ho, got seven years or more.

Some Wednesday links…

Desmond Shum on China’s ‘bucket of money’…

Since 2020, China’s M1 and M2 have grown by 89% and 49%, while GDP rose only 36%.

…When money supply keeps outrunning GDP and velocity keeps falling, liquidity stops being a policy tool and becomes a structural condition. Each slowdown forces the PBOC to inject more cash just to keep the system afloat. 

…China has become a liquidity superpower trapped in a deflationary economy, sustained by capital controls and public compliance.

Taipei Times op-ed on the CCP’s concept of power…

Even gods are owned by the CCP. Officially, religion is also a wholly-owned subsidiary of the CCP. They claim the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation is an internal Chinese affair and must be administered and approved according to Chinese law.

Constitutionally, the CCP is also the “leadership core” for the “orientation for China’s advanced culture.”

Those are just appetizers; they also wrote in their constitution that they are the “vanguard” of “the Chinese people, and the Chinese nation,” so those are theirs to run as well.

They fear and loathe what they term as “desinification” in Taiwan, where culture can flow and develop naturally — sometimes expanding and deepening traditional Chinese customs and traditions, and sometimes finding whole new directions. Over time this has developed into something unique to Taiwan and individual to the people living here, regardless of whether they consider it “Chinese” or “Taiwanese” or both. Taiwanese do not belong to the CCP, which the CCP views as infuriating and threatening.

“The Chinese people, and the Chinese nation,” are not limited by geography; anyone they deem “Han Chinese” is included. The CCP considers up to 50 million people worldwide to be theirs, including over five million Americans, many of whom have no connection to China whatsoever other than ancestors who arrived in the distant past.

A lecture by Sarah Paine on the historic China-Russia struggle for power. She leaps forward in the chronological narrative, so you better know your stuff.

Felt sorry for the extremely old and frail campaign workers handing out election leaflets, so I now have promo materials for Judy Chan (of Regina Ip’s New People’s Party) and Jeremy Young (Liberal Party) running in HK Island West. And we have a possible answer to the question: what sort of platform do you adopt in an all-patriots election in which all candidates must be pro-government? 

Judy’s slogan is ‘Family-friendly, encouraging childbirth’. This sounds facile, but it does give her an opportunity to differentiate herself. Specifically, she urges the relaxing of restrictions on single women using assisted reproductive technology – which actually puts her at odds with official government policy. Or it would if she hadn’t made sure to say ‘explore the relaxing of…’ She also calls for tax breaks for families that hire foreign domestic helpers, which is amusingly inane. The focus on fertility and children squeeze out any thoughts she might have on the other 99% of issues.

The ‘pro-business’ party’s Young spouts vacuous slogans like ‘underpinning economic pillars’, ‘unleashing Hong Kong’s potential’, and ‘committing to economic transformations’. No mention of what these actually mean (are they even compatible with one another?) and certainly no hint of actual policy proposals. Nothing on (say) tackling the budget deficit or abandoning outdated thinking on land prices, tourism and ‘hubs’. But he does mention safeguarding national security, which Judy – to our horror – has overlooked.

Within just a few weeks, medal-winning fencer girl Vivian Kong has gone from a humble PR assistant at the Jockey Club to rumored possible LegCo candidate to ‘considering’ running in the Tourism functional constituency to attending a high-profile photo shoot with industry figures to appearing on the ballot. Apart from a very brief glimmer of uncertainty about her Canadian passport, it was one of the smoothest- and fastest-ever entrances to Hong Kong ‘politics’. 

A clue as to what’s going on: China Daily carries plenty of glam-pics. As does the Standard. The other candidate – an actual tourism guy of some sort and district council member called Marco Ma – must be wishing he hadn’t bothered. The Tourism constituency has only 170-odd voters, all of them organizations rather than humans…

According to sources, Kong secured more than 10 nominations from the functional constituency, including support from Regal Hotels, Miramar Group, and Guangdong Holdings, along with Election Committee nominations from violinist Yao Jue and Josephine Tsui Mei-wan.

But perhaps there are hopes that her fame as a former Olympic champion will encourage wider interest in an otherwise not-very-compelling election.

From AFP via HKFP – one outgoing lawmaker and a few commentators lament the rubber-stamp nature of the all-patriots body…

The city had two decades of spirited opposition politics, which took off in the final years of British colonial rule and grew into a pro-democracy coalition in the 2010s before being wiped out.

“(Nowadays) a lot of the speeches have an echo chamber effect… The culture is monotonous, and those who are relatively lively have given up re-election,” said Kenneth Chan, a political scientist at Hong Kong Baptist University.

Departing legislators have cited reasons such as age and party strategy.

More than a dozen lawmakers declined to be interviewed by AFP.

Not-for-profit news site HKFP reports on its own experience of an audit by the HK Inland Revenue Dept of independent media outlets…

The tax office has closed a 20-month investigation into seven years’ worth of HKFP’s accounts, after the newspaper was “randomly selected” for an audit.

The Inland Revenue Department (IRD) claimed an alleged tax underpayment of HK$3,020 during the 2021-22 assessment year, worth 0.78 per cent of HKFP’s income.

Last month, HKFP chose to settle the case and pay HK$57,692, including penalties, to avoid the likely prohibitive cost of further disputing a modest discrepancy. It is unclear how much the case cost taxpayers.

Last February, the IRD launched an audit of HKFP’s corporate accounts and the personal accounts of its founder, Tom Grundy, from 2017 onwards. The Hong Kong Journalists Association revealed this May that much of Hong Kong’s independent news sector – including companies, staff and family members – was also under audit, with some facing “strange, unreasonable claims” from the IRD.

In July, it emerged that many in the independent book sector were also being audited.

…The IRD arrived at the HK$57,381 settlement by applying the 0.78 per cent shortfall during the 2021-22 tax year to HKFP’s declared income during the six other years of inspection. The sum of HK$24,381 was added to a HK$33,000 penalty, plus interest of HK$311.

Within weeks of the IRD probe, accounting firm Noble Partners dropped HKFP as a client, claiming they did not “possess the required knowledge and experience” to handle an audit.

More in this statement from HKFP, including an appeal for donations. 

Meanwhile (from a post by razvenhk)…

Pro-democracy Thai restaurant Thai Ki Lung in Sham Shui Po, Hong Kong announced that they have decided to close after 12 Nov, citing a worsening business environment and constant visits from government departments.

From HKFP – arrests are still taking place for involvement in the 2019 protests. Six are charged with weapons offenses, with two also alleged to have conspired to incite others to riot. One was recently acquitted of terrorism charges.

Bloomberg looks at investors trying to reduce their exposure to Hong Kong’s property market…

When Blackstone Inc. bet on Hong Kong’s commercial real estate sector in 2014, it bought a 20,000-square-foot retail space in the bustling Mong Kok district for HK$700 million ($90 million) to target mainland Chinese tourists seeking brand-name wear.

Today, the space that once housed Forever 21 is valued at less than half that amount and Blackstone is in talks with Taipei Fubon Commercial Bank Co. to renegotiate terms of a loan for the property…

The soured bet by the world’s largest alternative asset manager offers a glimpse into the risks for global private equity funds that poured $17 billion into Hong Kong’s once-booming commercial real estate market between 2010 and 2019, according to data from Colliers. From Gaw Capital Partners to Schroders Plc, investors are facing a dilemma: Sink more cash into struggling properties or forfeit them to lenders.

…The average price of retail space in the city plunged 41% as of August from a 2018 peak, according to Hong Kong government data. Offices, near their worst vacancy rates, have also tanked 49% in value.

That’s eroding the collateral value behind many bank loans, which could lead to margin calls, refinancing challenges and in more severe cases distressed asset disposals.

William Pesek in Asia Times on the Trump-Xi meeting…

On Thursday, Trump gushed about an “amazing” meeting with Xi, where he agreed to cut China’s tariff to 47%. But the odds that posterity will concur are exceedingly low.

For one thing, there’s nothing “grand” about the bargain to which Trump and Xi are discussing in the loosest and vaguest terms possible. Specifics, targets, enforcement mechanisms and punishment for non-compliance will all be discussed by US and Chinese trade officials at a future date.

Nothing on the table, though, alters the mechanics of a US$659 billion trade relationship in any notable way. Face-saving agreements to throttle back on tariffs, buy more soybeans and increase the flow of rare-earth minerals are grand on some levels. But narrowing America’s trade deficit with China requires a wholesale remaking of commercial dynamics.

For another, myriad tripwires could — and likely will — return Trump and Xi to battle stations. Count the ways things could go awry: China depreciating the yuan; Trump depreciating the dollar; the US economy slowing sharply; either side failing to live up to a deal; domestic political troubles prompting either leader to lash out abroad.

On YouTube, James Marsh reviews a new Hong Kong animated fantasy Another World. Sounds more like a Ghibli derivative than something authentically local. 

But the movie version of Kobayashi-san’s Maid Dragon is opening soon.