Big Lychee, Various Sectors

More coverage of the dilemma/absurdity that requires Hong Kong’s economy to be wrecked so the CCP can save face and protect the motherland from Covid with a ‘Made in China’ vaccine. 

Charles Mok writes in the Diplomat that ‘Zero COVID Is More Politics Than Science’…

Such is the awkward situation that Hong Kong has found itself in, being an international hub for finance and commerce, yet with no choice but to follow China’s zero COVID obsession. Over the past year, the Hong Kong administration along with the local pro-Beijing politicians – now unopposed after the purging of all opposition from Hong Kong’s political scene – has been adamantly pursuing harsher and harsher domestic measures, purportedly trying to meet Beijing’s requirements for re-opening the border with the mainland. While the re-opening is still denied by Beijing, Hong Kong has instead succeeded in isolating itself from the rest of the world.

According to Bloomberg, a European Chamber draft report foresees Hong Kong being cut off from the world until well into 2024 – with a major exodus of expats in the meantime. 

The Standard puts its story on this next to one in which Beijing official Luo Huining says Hong Kong has ‘regained its luster’ oh yes.

Accidentally-found copy of the EuroCham paper here.

The CCP likes to see itself as pragmatic and effective (‘whole-process democracy’, etc). But its insistence on reinventing mRNA vaccines looks more like narcissism – or paranoia that foreign products will be laced with ingredients that promote alien unpatriotic subversive ideas.

Which brings us to Security Secretary Chris Tang, who wants to see tougher official-secrets laws to counter foreign espionage. Not only does he maintain that Hong Kong is currently awash with foreign spies – he seems to link theft of state secrets to the 2019 protests…

He told lawmakers that certain countries have been attempting to endanger national security or “foment a color revolution” in the SAR, with the 2019 social unrest being a “vivid example.”

Tang said that spies usually engage in activities such as “infiltrating state authorities, probing state secrets, inciting disaffection of public servants, paying and grooming agents with the view of stirring up trouble, intensifying social conflicts, advocating anti-government beliefs and even overthrowing state powers through violence and other means.”

He also said spies have a causal relationship with domestic terrorism as spies will attempt to seize power by violence.

The evidence for all this would be fascinating. Sadly, it seems to be a state secret.

…trying to feel Carrie Lam’s emotions. 

Veteran patriotic politician Tsang Yok-sing says Beijing will have just one name on the Chief Executive quasi-election ballot, rather than contrive a phony race between the prearranged winner and a designated loser. This obviously keeps things simple – no need for the ‘elites’ to pretend to vote. But I’m slightly surprised that the CCP would make the charade even easier to mock. 

If Jasper is right, the most farcical part of the process will be when Beijing tells a few followers to spread word of who it has picked, and all the shoe-shiners and loyalist trash leap swiftly as one to endorse and praise the individual concerned. (Tsang doesn’t speculate on who the chosen one will be – and indeed who cares? It might be Feel-my-emotions Lady, or Psycho-cop Guy, or someone else not called Regina, but it’ll make little difference.) 

Hong Kong is full of smart people with insight and ideas. Sadly, none are in government. One – a doctor – offers intelligent-sounding suggestions on how we can start moving forward on Covid…

Creating an illusion of certainty around zero Covid is disingenuous. People will die of Covid and this should be acknowledged and communicated. The challenge is to balance the damage from the disease and the damage from the public health measures. 

The Chief Justice goes to considerable lengths to explain that judicial independence exists in Hong Kong. HKFP report here. It would be more convincing if he didn’t feel a need to say this in the first place. But perhaps credibility is not the aim here – he also insists that keeping 47 pro-democracy politicians in jail without trial for a year is perfectly fine.

An HKFP op-ed on those incessant official denials that press freedom is in the same wonderful shape as, say, judicial independence…

…knowing that a mere accusation can result in the immediate closure of a media outlet is intimidating for the staff of any organisation in the business, and also perhaps a dangerous temptation to people who disapprove of it.

Another microbiologist says Hong Kong’s zero-Covid mission is futile. And a study shows that Hongkongers find vaccination information more persuasive if it’s in English rather than Chinese. Something about a ‘high status’ language. (While we’re on the subject, William Pesek considers how China’s zero-Covid policy could impact the global economy. Clue: supply chains.)

The SCMP attempts to decode a CCP newspaper’s vague warning that Hong Kong’s failure to fight Covid could endanger national safety. Sample:

The Ta Kung Pao editorial said the government must “assess the situation carefully and brace for the worst while coming up with different proposals for good preparation”.

One theory offered by the SCMP‘s ‘pundits’ is that the pandemic detracts from grand projects like the Greater Bay Area. More likely, the aim of the piece is to emphasize that it is Hong Kong that threatens the Mainland’s health, not the other way round – and in any case, links with (or Covid approaches being used by) the rest of the planet do not enter any equation.

We’re all aware that Beijing is insisting that Hong Kong align with Mainland ‘zero-Covid’ policy, despite the resulting idiocies of putting people in quarantine hotels where they catch Covid, locking down entire housing estates, chasing hamsters, etc. But no-one is totally sure why. It depends how paranoid you feel.

Is it symbolism (Hong Kong must not appear or feel ‘different’ from the rest of the country)? Is it a calculated way to diminish Hong Kong’s international role and character (in line with Beijing’s insular tilt)? Is it also an excuse to tighten social controls by barring public assembly and introducing surveillance apps?

Probably all of the above, up to a point. But you have to wonder how much Beijing’s hands are simply tied by the fact that Mainland vaccines are far less effective than foreign ones. The CCP cannot openly admit this. So it has to leave its population effectively unvaccinated – and the nation cut off from the world – until it can find an acceptable face-saving way out.

Maybe the damage being done to Hong Kong is not the primary aim, but more inadvertent (even if, to the Leninist mind, proof that every cloud has a silver lining). To put it another way: if Beijing had had world-class vaccines available a year ago, would Hong Kong (and China as a whole) be far closer to reopening by now? Or would the CCP invent different reasons to keep us sealed off? In which case, wouldn’t it follow that the Hong Kong government/Beijing have an interest in keeping Hong Kong’s elderly semi-unvaccinated? 

Which brings us back to the more sinister explanations. Carrie Lam is reframing ‘zero-Covid’ as ‘not absolute’, and expert KY Yuen says it was supposed to buy time for vaccinations. But the Hong Kong authorities’ main priority seems to be rooting out sedition, rather than pushing the old folks to get their jabs.

Some associated reading…

Comments from Siddarth Sridhar on the problem with ‘zero-Covid’ in Hong Kong.

An accessible update on Omicron and vaccines.

Quartz’s big Hamster Hunt piece. And the Washington Post’s big splash on the Hong Kong Hamster Rebellion.

Samuel Bickett on Hong Kong’s sedition laws…

Sedition under Hong Kong law is an entirely different beast. It’s not enough to simply say the statute is broader than sedition under US law, because there is so little overlap in focus that it is effectively a different crime entirely. 

HKFP on the government’s latest target: signing up the elderly for vaccinations the HKJA.

For all its NatSec laws, media clampdowns and imprisonment without trial, Hong Kong remains defiant. Animal lovers approach people taking hamsters to the government Humane Handling Management Centre Death Camp in Shatin and offer to hurry the pets away to safety. 

A few little things for the weekend…

Stats showing that daily arrivals at HKIA are barely enough to fill one Airport Express train. But then there are the departures, netting out at over 4,000 a week. That rate would work out at well over 150,000 – 2% of the population – for the year.

What do Hong Kong officials do when they’re not strangling hamsters? Here you go.

How Chinese U is going patriotic. (Is this seriously supposed to induce anything but cynicism and contempt among students?)

China Digital Times on Beijing’s warning to Winter Olympics athletes: ‘just shut up and play’. More from the Guardian.

On culinary matters…

I came into possession of a can of ‘Omnituna’, a synthetic vegan version of the indispensable fish. Looks like the real thing (not in chunks but shredded in appearance) but improbably has the same sinews they put in vegan meat to make it look authentic. Smells sweetish, rather like cat food. Texture is mushy rather than chewy. Tastes a bit like Seven-11 pork floss, with a musty/powdery/cardboard tone that lingers.

You would not want this in a sandwich, let alone a salad. I stir-fried it with greens and noodles, and made it more or less OK – thanks no doubt to my adroit (soy sauce, Shaoxing wine, garlic, ginger, chili) use of seasonings and aromatics. Set off a serious bout of hiccups. Why wouldn’t a devout vegan just use tofu? Or is this aimed at the ‘self-punishment’ market segment?

From today’s Standard… Tears as people surrender their hamsters, lest the creatures breathe all over them. Shares in Checkley Sin’s old company zoom after he announces a bid to ‘run’ for Chief Executive. And the HK Police have a recruitment problem. A snapshot of Hong Kong today – marked by unfeeling and incompetent officials, corrupt elites, and once-admired public institutions in decline.

Which brings us to a big article from Prof Michael Davies – perhaps the ultimate comprehensive account of what has happened to Hong Kong under the NatSec regime. Among many points…

One would be hard-pressed to devise a fuller plan to shut down an open society and inhibit freewheeling debate.

The shutdown of Hong Kong as a free society is still only (say) 30% or 40% complete. Where else in modern times has anything like this happened? Maybe Czechoslovakia being Sovietized in the late 1940s?

And…

For the CCP regime, the NSL represents a momentous strategic choice. The regime has no doubt made that choice with a view not only to Hong Kong, but also to the risks of dissent and democratic ferment both within China and around the world. 

This is not about Hong Kong; it is about how Beijing’s leadership views the world. Uighurs, United Front ops, arrests of lawyers – it’s all the same thing.

A ‘newish adornment at the Dept of Justice’.

Following widespread criticism that its Covid policies are unscientific, incoherent and futile, the Hong Kong government decides to bolster its credibility by ordering a round-up of hamsters. (Live action pix here.) The small furry rodents – long accustomed to spending their lives behind bars – cannot even hope to be put into quarantine. An altogether darker fate awaits them…

Humanely dispatching hamsters on a selective basis could not control the epidemic completely and may cause loopholes. To protect members of the public and safeguard public health, it is necessary for the AFCD to humanely dispatch those consignments of hamsters as soon as possible, to prevent the COVID-19 virus from spreading further.

…For the arrangement of taking in hamsters by the department, please call 2691 2269. Members of the public may also send their hamsters to the New Territories South Animal Management Centre.”

Some brave Hongkongers are now sheltering hamsters in secret hiding places in their homes. The authorities are also hunting down Cathay Pacific staff suspected of attending hamsters’ birthday parties. A kung fu master and YouTuber called Checkley Sin announces his intention to run for Chief Executive. Localist icon Edward Leung is released from prison at the dead of night. A slice of life in Hong Kong in early 2022.

Secretary for Home Affairs Casper Tsui, Immigration Director Au Ka-wang and a political assistant are released from quarantine at Penny’s Bay. It seems there will be no serious punishment for officials or lawmakers who attended the Witman Hung birthday bash. On the other hand, two Cathay Pacific cabin crew – already fired by the airline – are arrested for breaking anti-Covid rules. The ‘loyal trash’ at the birthday party were victims, and it’s all Cathay Pacific’s fault for inflicting the Omicron variant on Hong Kong.

It could have been worse. The party-going ‘elites’ and the errant flight attendants could have been a 17-year-old producing leaflets calling for a ‘Federal Republic of Hong Kong’. He is facing sedition charges that are likely to attract harsher penalties than violating disease-control rules.

(I’m intrigued about how a federal system could work in Hong Kong. If half a dozen US states (Dakotas, Vermont, potentially DC, etc) can function with populations of less than a million, couldn’t regions like HK Island, Shatin, Kowloon and Tuen Mun/Yuen Long in theory support separate legislatures and governors? Or maybe a borough system like London’s – where councils and mayors run local schools, parks and public housing – would make more sense. Obviously, I would never propose such possibly seditious ideas.)

A few more details on the Party-gate attendees. And some more digging into a Hong Kong angle – featuring Ethiopia and shoes – to the UK Christine Li story. 

And a little reminder that, for all the misery out there, we still have at least one reason to be thankful…

HKFP looks at ways of measuring the exodus from Hong Kong – it is impossible to gauge how many are local middle class or overseas ‘expat’ business types, or whether they are leaving because of Beijing’s political clampdown or the government’s onerous Covid restrictions. One telling statistic is departures of students from schools. (Another is perhaps the cost of sending pets overseas.) The number of Mainland immigrants on One-Way Permits has fallen because of Covid. But however you break it down, the stats are a major vote of no-confidence.

More number-crunching from David Webb: the number of people in prison has declined by over a third in the last 20 years, but those on remand have jumped from around 10% to 30% of the total. Samuel Bickett comments that…

In systems that value civil rights and due process, courts deny bail only for, say, alleged murderers and serial rapists.

…while in Hong Kong remand is used to keep political opponents in jail without trial.

The HK Police take delivery of the first of 50 experimental anti-riot buses with opaque windows and tear-gas guns attached to the roof. Is their budget ridiculously bloated, or are they expecting large-scale street protests sometime?

A (paywalled) column in the Economist describes the supposedly democratic process whereby the CCP chooses and promotes members of (mainly rubber-stamp) lower- and national-level Party congresses…

The lists are passed back and forth, up and down the ranks, for further refinement until every province, the armed forces and a handful of other “electoral units” each has its own list of delegates that satisfies the Organisation Department. Despite the party’s role in producing these lists, chosen delegates are still subjected to extensive vetting. This has involved interviews with colleagues, police checks and examination of records relating to everything from tax payments to compliance with family-planning rules. As officials put it, no one is to be selected “carrying sickness”, ie, with a blotted copybook.

If it sounds familiar, it’s the template for the multi-step screening for all-patriot ‘improved’ Hong Kong Legislative Council candidates, with nomination by a group of specially picked insiders, plus a secondary vetting mechanism – and the possibility of being kicked out on an oath-taking technicality.

A UK Daily Mail op-ed on Chinese agent Christine Lee, notably the role played by past British leaders in kowtowing to Beijing and opening the door to United Front influence operations. And an interesting thread with more analysis (fuller version here).

While it is easy for Brits to blame specific former Prime Ministers, universities or business interests, the fact is that up until around 10 years ago nearly everyone from Barack Obama to the Pope agreed sagely that closer relations with Beijing were possible and desirable – and indulged CCP attempts to infiltrate institutions and capture elites. Xi Jinping has done a great job of proving otherwise, even if the Vatican, the WHO, investment banks and some idiot politicians still cling to the ‘partnership and cooperation’ fantasy.

HKFP’s anti-Sedition law shield…

Our (not Better) HK Foundation backs away from suggestions it is backing Margaret Chan as next CE. In today’s climate, overtly supporting a possible future CE before Beijing gives the nod could be not just presumptuous but borderline disloyal. Also, Beijing will have to give that nod not only to its pre-selected choice as CE quasi-election winner in late March, but to any designated loser that participates in the farce to create a supposed appearance of competition.

Owen Chow – one of the pan-democrats jailed for 2020 primary election/’subversion’ to be bailed – gets un-bailed, apparently for making comments on social media. 

As well as those pan-dems, many other protesters and activists are being detained for long periods without trial. Samuel Bickett says it’s not a bug but a feature, and introduces us to some of them. 

More recommended viewing and reading for the weekend…

Simon Cheng was the British consulate trade official detained by Mainland security at West Kowloon high-speed rail station in August 2019 and sent back to Shenzhen. YouTube channel LADbible has just interviewed him about his interrogation and torture. (Also worth seeing in this series: a North Korean escapee and an Al-Qaeda infiltrator.)

From Philip Cowley, the Covid hypocrisy of Hong Kong.

China Media Project looks at Chinese state media ‘journalists’ who disguise their roles on social media in order to pass themselves off as genuine independent reporters.

Also from CMP, the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC), the country’s central agency for internet control and regulation, announces its top ten keywords for 2021…

For starters, here are the top three:

1. “Celebrating the 100th anniversary of the CCP” (庆祝中国共产党成立100周年)

2. “Party history study and education” (党史学习教育)

3. “6th Plenum of the 19th CCP Central Committee” (党的十九届六中全会)

The South China Morning Onion recently carried a hopelessly bad op-ed maintaining that Beijing and Taipei share maritime claims. No need to read it (though link provided), but a great thread in response is here. (The US has just commented on the issue.)

A second installment of the Forbes story about Beijing’s under-reporting of Covid numbers.

The UK security service warns against a Hong Kong-born lawyer allegedly working for Beijing in influencing politicians. More on her United Front and other ties here.