Gently easing into new week…

Remember when RTHK’s Bao Choy was cleared on appeal after being prosecuted for accessing the vehicle registration system? The government has now responded – by making access to the system much harder. Standard editorial

[The government’s measure] could also go against the spirit of the top court’s judgment, as commonly understood, when it could have been fairly simple for the authority to conform with the spirit without complicating the matter to such an extent.

Did the CFA not already state in paragraph 62 that “whilst such rights are not absolute and may be restricted where necessary, there is no reason to proceed from a starting point that bona fide journalism should be excluded from the phrase ‘[o]ther traffic and transport related matters'”?

[Transport Commissioner Angela] Lee could have readily aligned with the CFA ruling by simply inserting a footnote to the original form to include “bona fide journalism” as a valid reason under “other traffic and transport-related matters” in accordance with the CFA’s view.

…Worse still, the hurdles being put up by the transport department set a poor example for company, land and other searches crucial to journalistic duties.

Not to mention the duties of lawyers and investment analysts.

HKFP op-ed on the apparent decline in the right to have a lawyer present when talking with police, with reference to Agnes Chow and Tony Chung…

There is nothing in the national security law’s Article 43, which deals with police powers, to suggest that any new right is being conferred to deprive defendants and others involved in legal proceedings of their right to counsel.

…People involved in involuntary interactions with the police are entitled to have a lawyer present. Requiring them not only to engage in such interactions without counsel, but also not to consult a lawyer afterwards, is oppressive…

And another Jimmy Lai trial graphic, raising the question: is the trial about actions or opinions?

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‘I LOVE HK’ sign ‘would show return to normalcy’

The prosecution presents more of its case in the Jimmy Lai trial…

Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai was the “mastermind and sponsor” of a campaign to lobby for foreign sanctions on the city and on China, a government prosecutor argued in the pro-democracy activist’s high-profile national security trial.

…The prosecutor described the chain of command in the syndicate. Lai personally instructed Mark Simon, his US-based personal assistant. Simon, in turn, gave directions to Chan, who instructed Li and Finn Lau, the core members of an international lobbying group called Stand With Hong Kong (SWHK), he said.

And from RTHK

The trial of former media tycoon Jimmy Lai was told on Thursday that the defendant was the mastermind and a key financial supporter of an international campaign aimed at bringing down the Chinese government.

…The prosecution alleged that Lai later outlined a four-stage “implosion” agenda to instigate “administrative and economic turmoil in China”.

Samuel Bickett adds

In Jimmy Lai’s trial today, the prosecutor focused on ads Lai allegedly funded calling for the world to support Hong Kong’s protests. They were published in Aug 2019, almost a year before Beijing imposed the NatSec Law under which Jimmy is now charged.

It is a fundamental principle that laws only apply to future acts, not past ones. For Jimmy, the court is simply choosing to ignore that principle. 

Beijing said in the lead up to the NSL’s passage that the law would not be applied retroactively.

From here – Heroic Graphic-Design Effort of the Week Award goes to a map-pictogram/flow-chart thing showing Jimmy Lai’s plot to do whatever etc, according to the prosecution…

(And I’ve cropped it.)

Meanwhile…

The Liberal Party’s Jeremy Young said a large sign, such as “I LOVE HK”, would show the world that the SAR has returned to normalcy.

New all-patriots District Council members hit the ground running, with a selection of banal ideas to boost tourism…

Cat murals, a time tunnel and Lantern Festival markets are among initiatives proposed by Hong Kong’s 18 district councils to show how unique each area is and lure in more visitors.

Central and Western District Council, which held the first meeting of its new term on Thursday, wants to set up a huge landmark at Peak Road Garden and a “time tunnel” at the facade of the Old Mental Hospital in Sai Ying Pun.

(OK – so ‘time tunnel at old mental hospital’ at least sounds interesting. Sort of captures some contemporary Hong Kong spirit.)

A district councillor said on Thursday he believed putting neon signs at street level around Tsim Sha Tsui could boost economic activities in the area, as the installations could provide photo opportunities for tourists and residents.

Problem: the government has been removing neon signs for years.

And more on District Office’s contributions…

The Kowloon City District Office proposed only one event, which is the annual Thai Songkran festival in April.

But instead of calling it the “water-splashing festival,” the Kowloon City District Office proposed what roughly translates to “Thai Vibes Kowloon City with food and water-splashing” — apparently adapted from the government’s earlier “Night Vibes Hong Kong.”

Problem: the Hong Kong police are not big fans of Songkran. (And shouldn’t that be ‘Thai Thematic Water Vibes Concept-cum-Food Zone Scheme’?)

Some weekend reading…

Beijing’s policies are – to no-one’s surprise – making life harder for those trashy franchised international schools…

A new “patriotic” education law is set to put a squeeze on British schools in China as Beijing steps up its efforts to tighten control of what is taught in its classrooms.

Harrow Beijing did not respond to a request for comment. The school was previously known as Harrow International Beijing, but on 1 September 2021, a new private education law came into effect, banning private schools that accepted Chinese nationals from including the name of overseas educational institutions in their name, or words such as “international” or “world”.

From Newsweek – a reminder of China’s extreme inequality. Maybe 10-20% of the population have a middle-class lifestyle surrounded by skyscrapers, high-speed trains and overseas vacations. Don’t mention the rest…

Internet censors in China worked around the clock this week to suppress online discussions about poverty in the country after an economist revealed nearly 1 billion people were living off less than $300 a month.

…In his article for the business outlet Yicai, Li cited data from a 2021 research paper by the China Institute of Income Distribution at Beijing Normal University, which placed the number of people living on less than 2,000 yuan a month at 964 million, or nearly 70 percent of the population.

…In June 2020, Wang Haiyuan and Meng Fanqiang, the authors behind the income study cited by Li this week, published an article in China’s leading financial news magazine Caixin, in which they quoted late Premier Li Keqiang’s comments about the estimated 600 million Chinese people who were living on less than 1,000 yuan, or $140, a month.

“Although 40 years of reform and opening up have greatly improved the country’s comprehensive strength and level of national income, as of today, the fact that we have a large population, few resources and very uneven development is still obvious, and a considerable number of residents are still close to the poverty line,” Wang and Meng wrote.

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香港へようこそ!  – unless you follow Mike Pence on Twitter

The government unveils a ‘Characteristic Local Tourism Incentive Scheme’. The initiative expands on a 2020 package intended to ‘incentivize the travel trade to develop more tourism products and itineraries with cultural and heritage elements’.

It is ‘characteristic’ in that it is obviously devised by bureaucrats and relies on handouts to the industry, with the taxpayer paying tour companies to take visitors (or locals) to a prescribed list of attractions, which of course come in two clunkily-named categories…

The CTIS is divided into two parts, namely the in-depth travel and thematic travel … The  [former] itinerary must cover at least two designated sites of in-depth travel and one interactive tourist experience activity with Hong Kong’s unique and authentic experience recognised under the CTIS … [For the latter, the travel agent] has to focus on six distinctive themes, including national history, green ecology, marine, traditional culture, pop culture, and creative travel in designing the itinerary and provide visitors with a captivating and in-depth travel experience in Hong Kong. Details of the application will be announced in mid-January, along with the promulgation of the six winning thematic itineraries under the Deeper into Hong Kong: Creative Itinerary Design Competition.

Officials hope that this scheme will meet with the same ‘enthusiastic response’ as the 2020 one – and why wouldn’t it when operators get HK$200-400 per pax? 

Why does the government need to subsidize such tours? Could it be that tourists would prefer to be doing something other (or cheaper) than being dragged to an intangible green ecology site? 

A memorable moment during the Swire ‘Under the Stars’ open-air picnic/concert at Central waterfront a couple of months ago: a tourist ‘Big Bus’ drove past on its route of government-promoted attractions, and the passengers on the open top deck looked on (enviously, I was pretty sure) at local people enjoying some genuine (private-sector-organized) night vibes.

Meanwhile, the NatSec-focused part of the government sends a different message to would-be visitors.

A Japanese tourist gets shouted at by a Hong Kong cop – plus receives the finger-pointing treatment. How many people in Japan have now seen the video?

And then there’s the Jimmy Lai trial. The latest from HKFP

Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai used his pro-democracy tabloid Apple Daily, which ceased operations in 2021, as a platform to “sway public opinion” and “promote hatred” against Beijing and Hong Kong authorities, a court has heard as the closely-watched national security trial entered its fifth day.

…[Lead prosecutor Anthony] Chau said that Lai had followed 53 Twitter accounts, including then US vice-president Mike Pence, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, and UK-based activists Luke de Pulford and Benedict Rogers.

Alex Lee, one of three designated national security judges presiding over the trial, challenged Chau on the purpose of showing the list of Twitter accounts Lai had followed.

“He’s interested in international affairs, so?” Lee said.

Caoilfhionn Gallagher KC comments

…2 ridiculous examples of ‘conspiracy to commit journalism’ charges today.

1. Allegation Jimmy Lai sought a comment on the extradition bill from former HK Governor Chris Patten.

This is simply public interest journalism…

The Prosecution produced, as ‘evidence’ of his ‘crime,’ a message sent to @benedictrogers in order to reach Chris Patten.

Simply ludicrous. It impacts any journalist seeking a comment on an issue of public importance, via a contact who is a UK (or other foreign) national. 

2. “Apple Daily continued to publish inflammatory publications in an attempt to sway public opinion…Relevant articles are directed at the central government, Hong Kong govt & the entire regime.”

Now it’s a ‘crime’ to publish opinionated journalism & criticise the Government. 

More daily trial updates, including translations from The Witness and Ming Pao, here.

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‘Telling good HK stories’, 2024

Jimmy Lai pleads not guilty to collusion with foreign forces and publishing ‘seditious’ materials. In a move guaranteed to provoke anger – or at least derision – overseas…

The prosecution … displayed a chart labelled “Lai Chee-ying’s external political connections,” showing headshots of overseas figures that Lai was said to be in communication with. Among them were Benedict Rogers and Luke de Pulford, both UK-based human rights activists, as well as James Cunningham, the former consul general in Hong Kong. 

Jack Keane, a former US army general and Paul Wolfowitz, a former US deputy secretary of defence, were also named. 

More from the Committee for Freedom in HK on overseas co-conspirators… 

On the fourth day of the trial, the court was also given a list of people named as “co-conspirators” on trumped up charges of “collusion with foreign forces” with Jimmy Lai and named several foreign citizens – including James Cunningham, former U.S. Consul General in Hong Kong, and Chairman of the Committee for Freedom in Hong Kong Foundation, Luke de Pulford, Executive Director of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC), Bill Browder, founder of the Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign, Benedict Rogers, founder of Hong Kong Watch and former Japanese MP Shiori Kanno.

From HK Watch (VPN or similar needed in Hong Kong)…

“The naming of Benedict Rogers and several other international campaigners for democracy in Hong Kong in the trial of Jimmy Lai shows this charade of a trial has nothing to do with justice. It is simply an assertion of CCP authoritarianism. It makes a mockery of the rule of law. 

…“This simply shows [Rogers says], as we have said all along, that this is a show trial and has absolutely nothing to do with genuine national security. The ‘crime’ Mr Lai is accused of is talking with foreign politicians and activists, including myself, and engaging in journalism – which, as the publisher of a major newspaper in Hong Kong, ought to be regarded as entirely normal legitimate activity. 

“Furthermore, much of this activity pre-dates the National Security Law, which means the law is being applied retroactively – something the Hong Kong government gave assurances would not happen when it was imposed on 1 July 2020…”

Safeguard Defenders.calls the process ‘an unacceptable infringement of national sovereignty ‘ and demands that overseas jurisdictions scrap extradition and mutual police assistance agreements with Hong Kong. 

(The Standard notes that Lai, along with legal assistant Chan Tsz-wah and private assistant Mark Simon, are accused of ‘calling on US, New Zealand, UK, Japan, Czech and Ireland to suspend extradition agreements with Hong Kong’ as part of the alleged collusion with external forces.)

Bill Browder says

Hong Kong authorities have named me as a “co-conspirator” in the trial against Jimmy Lai. Although I’ve never met or spoken to him, they’re accusing him of being a part of my global campaign for Magnitsky sanctions against human rights violators.

Also from Benedict Rogers

People who simply campaigned for democracy deemed “co-conspirators” with #JimmyLai 

People who simply spoke with him are “collaborators”

Who next? Everyone who bought Apple Daily?

Video by Luke de Pulford on being named as a co-conspirator along with Jimmy Lai: ‘The idea that 2 million people took to the streets because Jimmy told them to is risible’. 

A Bloomberg op-ed

Lai has spent more than 1,000 days in pre-trial detention, and has been denied his choice of legal representation. Instead of a jury, his fate will be determined by a selection of judges handpicked by Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee. The courts have, so far, a 100% conviction rate for anyone charged under the law.

…A devout Christian, Lai has said in the past that he was willing to “pay the price” for his beliefs, to save the city that brought him his fame and fortune. Tragically, though, Hong Kong is no longer the place Lai once lauded for its freedom and called heaven. His trial will serve as a reminder of just how far Beijing will go to crush any opposition to its rule, in what was once one of Asia’s most storied cities.

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One safe prediction for 2024…

…there will be no relief from NatSec. The trials of Jimmy Lai and the HK47 will make international headlines, and no doubt there will be more arrests for T-shirts and Facebook posts, more patriotism in schools, and more bounties for exiled dissidents. Then there’s the local (Article 23) NatSec Law – abandoned in 2003, but still needed to ‘plug gaps’. As the HKFP explainer says

…the city’s own security law should prohibit seven types of offences – treason; secession; sedition; subversion against the central government; theft of state secrets; foreign bodies’ conducting political activities in the city; and local bodies establishing ties with foreign bodies.

What will be in it?

Obviously new legislation on treason, secession, theft of state secrets, etc – presumably with looser wording, tougher penalties and weaker protection for suspects than found in existing statutes. 

Almost certainly a replacement for the colonial-era (1920s) sedition law. Although barely used in colonial times, the old law was resurrected after 2019, and charges for various forms of ‘incitement’ are now commonplace, such as for the aforementioned T-shirts, Facebook posts, etc. But the colonial legislation has a maximum prison sentence of just two years, so we can expect harsher penalties, in line with other NatSec offenses.

Almost certainly measures aimed at media, academic, cultural and other groups and individuals with links to ‘foreign bodies’ that somehow threaten national security. Targets could be affiliates of international organizations that are critical of Hong Kong or China, or correspondents and academics suspected as spies or insurrection-plotters.

Probably new powers that in effect tighten control of the press, eg giving enforcement agencies greater powers to investigate suspected secessionist or subversive materials. 

Probably provisions attempting to do something similar with the Internet.

Maybe some sort of measures to counter other ‘soft resistance’ – activities or expressions the authorities wish they could treat as illegal but currently can’t. No-one seems to be able to produce a specific definition; perhaps the best way of looking at it is that if sedition laws aim to limit particular opinions, ‘soft resistance’ targets attitude. Maybe a ‘picking quarrels’ type of offense? Or somehow penalizing lack of sincerity or enthusiasm in expressing loyalty or patriotism? There has been behind-the-scenes controversy over this, but no signs that the authorities will listen to warnings of NatSec ‘overkill’.

Twenty years ago during the first attempt to implement Article 23, there was a serious public consultation exercise – of which many of us have fond or other memories. It is hard to believe that the authorities will be at all flexible with the 2024 edition.

Indeed, transparency of any sort doesn’t seem to be much of a priority. From Transit Jam on Sunday…

An index of 106 Hong Kong National Security Law (NSL) and sedition judgements has disappeared from a new Department of Justice (DOJ) webpage just days after its publication, with no explanation forthcoming from DOJ.

Originally launched on Thursday, DOJ’s “Annotations” webpage featured a useful and comprehensive index of all NSL- and sedition-related judgements under the NSL regime … in English only – aimed at improving transparency and international understanding of Hong Kong’s national security environment and serving as, according to DOJ, a “convenient and practical tool for promoting national security education and conducting legal research”. At its launch Thursday, Secretary for Justice, Paul Lam said “This body of case-law helps us understand the requirements of our national security laws and how they are being applied by the courts.”

…The index deletion in Hong Kong could signify tension between Hong Kong’s desire to give the international community transparency on NSL and the central government’s handling of “negative social phenomena”, a battle between face and facts. 

Transit Jam’s copy of the site.

Maybe at some point, reputational and overall economic harm will cause policymakers in high places to consider reining in the whole NatSec thing. But not in 2024.

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Even more freedom to come when Art. 23 law is passed!

The Hong Kong government says the city’s freedoms are better protected now we have the NatSec Law. HKFP reports

In a three-page report to the UN Human Rights Council published on Saturday, authorities said Hong Kong had taken a “major turn from chaos to governance” after the security legislation and measures ensuring only “patriots” can run in elections were implemented.

“Hong Kong society has put the volatile situation behind it, and the rights and freedoms of Hong Kong residents are better protected in a safer and more orderly environment,” the report read.

Dozens of civil society groups have shut down since [the NatSec Law’s introduction], while independent media outlets have also closed following police raids and the arrests of top executives.

A thread from Renaud Haccart

Some factual changes in HK in the past 4 years: fewer functioning political parties, elections with less diverse candidates, public demonstration where [organizers] get “invited for tea” by the police and in several cases suddenly withdraw their applications, less diverse media.

We can also add elections where less of the outcome depends on HK people’s opinions, leading to a legislative branch that’s less able to reflect the diverse opinions of HKers, and an executive that now controls candidacy at elections. Some public records are harder to consult.

It’s hard to find a single law, governmental measure or change in attitude from the authorities that have gone in the direction of more freedom in the past 4 years. Quite the opposite.

A few between-long-weekends things…

HKFP on activists trying to get the government to stop paving over rural paths…

“Because [the government] does not have any conservation standards to follow, the default option is, of course, to use concrete.”

Could we say this campaign is pro-‘soft resistance’?

From the Carter Center’s US-China Perception Monitor, a translation of an article by Mainland political scientist Hu Wei reflecting on Deng Xiaoping’s thoughts on reform and opening up. While paying due deference to the current official lines and slogans, he implicitly criticizes the current leadership’s direction…

Whether moving towards  modernization, the world, and the future, or regressing to tradition, self-seclusion, and absolutism, is the litmus test for judging whether to continue reform and opening up. Among them, how to handle relations with the West, especially the United States, is a key prerequisite for the success of China’s modernization. Many people always believe that the U.S. seeks to destroy China, which does not conform to the historical facts of reform and opening up and contradicts Deng’s initial judgment about war and peace. Even if the U.S. harbors such intentions, they should be resolved rather than intensified. If we oppose everything the U.S. supports and support everything against the U.S., Sino-US relations will definitely not improve. The deterioration of current Sino-US relations deserves deep reflection, and how to escape the “Thucydides Trap” requires greater wisdom.

The Diplomat on the rise of extreme Han ethno-nationalism in China…

…non-Han dynasties, particularly the Mongol-led Yuan and Manchu-led Qing, complicate China’s ethno-national identity. The Qing era (1644-1911), often viewed by Han nationalists as colonial rule, is especially contentious within the Imperial Han faction, which rejects its contribution to the Han legacy.

…This movement is more than nostalgia. It represents a complex mix of pride, identity, and ambition for global recognition … this movement now significantly influences Beijing’s narratives and policies. 

A group the author calls ‘Radicals’ are the ‘most assertive’. Then you have the more wishy-washy types, like…

The Conservative Faction: More restrained in territorial claims, conservatives base their aspirations on ancient Chinese literature and records. They advocate for a China that mirrors territorial descriptions from these texts, encompassing an ambitiously large area from Lake Baikal in Siberia to the Rocky Mountains in North America. 

Their approach also includes aggressive strategies against perceived historical violators of the Han people, with extreme suggestions like using nuclear force as retaliation for past aggressions, specifically against Japan for its actions in World War II.

Well, quite.

A video of Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu opening presents from Santa. They are items from around the world that China has barred from importing for political reasons. 

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Merry etc…

(Ripped off from here.)

Standard editorial asks why few Japanese tourists come to Hong Kong any more. It’s not just that the city is expensive…

…it is thought that news reports – like the one concerning a Hong Kong youngster jailed for making seditious social media posts after returning from Japan where she had been studying politics – don’t help the situation.

Then, import bans maintained by the SAR on seafood from certain Japanese prefectures due to nuclear wastewater discharge may have contributed to the perception.

The government has invested tens of millions of dollars in a rebranding program to relaunch Hong Kong.

If the investment has failed to change how the Japanese think about the city, could it have also failed to improve how other nationals perceive it?

The Yuen Ching-ting case. Agnes Chow is also popular in Japan. Here’s something else: Marilyn Tang, the sister-in-law of jailed activist Lee Cheuk-yan, is given six months in prison for ‘perverting the course of justice’. After her sister was arrested on NatSec charges, Tang visited the apartment and removed her sister’s phone and laptop, which was potential evidence. But in fact, police later found no evidence she had tampered with the devices, nor found anything incriminating on them.

Some holiday reading and viewing…

China File on how Hong Kong bolsters China’s arguments at international forums like the UN…

Where once HKSAR delegates to the UN sat silently through meetings and offered only brief replies to direct questions, they now serve as proactive cheerleaders for Beijing. The tone and substance of their contributions largely echo those of the PRC, effectively endorsing the PRC’s values, language, and behavior.

From last week – Asia Sentinel reports that some 70 officers in China’s rocket force might have been arrested, and Qin Gang might have been executed. (Might – but how much would you bet otherwise?)…

Since China’s missile secrets have fallen into Washington’s hands, it will cost trillions of yuan (hundreds of billions of dollars) for the Chinese government to reconfigure its missile system, another analyst said. This huge amount of money could have been spent on improving the Chinese people’s livelihood, said the analyst who declined to be named.

…Two sources told Asia Sentinel that Qin was executed a few months ago, but we have been unable to verify this. In addition to these two sources, a professor believes Qin is either executed or serving a life sentence in prison.

“We may never see old Qin and his lovely girlfriend again. Sad. They will serve at least life in prison,” a professor said.

Michael Pettis in the FT on why China’s debt is a symptom, not a cause, of the country’s economic problems…

the losses associated with the misallocation of investment over the past 10-15 years were capitalised, rather than recognised. In proper accounting, investment losses are treated as expenses, which result in a reduction of earnings and net capital. If, however, the entity responsible for the investment misallocation is able to avoid recognising the loss by carrying the investment on its balance sheets at cost, it has incorrectly capitalised the losses, ie converted what should have been an expense into a fictitious asset.

The result is that the entity will report higher earnings than it should, along with a higher total value of assets. But this fictitious asset by definition is unable to generate returns, and so it cannot be used to service the debt that funded it.

China Books Review’s best of 2023.

Translated by Geremie Barme – a learned conversation on the meaning of China’s ‘blank paper’ protests just over a year ago.

From Asia Nikkei, more on Chinese officials’ attempts to alter a French museum exhibition on the Mongols, resulting in a boost in Mongolia’s ‘soft power’ and in Franco-Mongolian relations…

“They told us, ‘Don’t use the words Genghis Khan, don’t use the words Mongol empire. You’ve used the phrase Yuan dynasty (which ruled China for a century from the time of Kublai Khan, grandson of Genghis Khan) — don’t use it.’ Well, that’s difficult. You can’t have an exhibition about Genghis Khan without mentioning Genghis Khan.”

…the planned French exhibition coincided with a Chinese crackdown on Mongol language and culture, the latest phase of a drive that had already suppressed Tibetans and Uyghurs in western China and was designed to emphasize the dominance of the majority Han people as part of a campaign to impose the idea of a continuous Chinese history over five millennia.

The fact that China was conquered by the Mongol empire under Genghis Khan and his successors was an inconvenient truth that did not fit into this simplified version of the country’s history.

…The government of Mongolia … offered to step in with newly unearthed artifacts from its own museums … The museum and Mongolia are now considering mounting a traveling exhibition that could reach as far as the U.S. and Australia.

…The text that the Chinese wanted to accompany the Genghis Khan exhibition denied the Mongol emperor’s record in linking East and West and preparing the ground for a Pax Mongolia in Eurasia, according to Guillet. Instead, the Chinese proposal “gave us nomadic tribes who benefited from the great culture of China, who were Sinocized and came under the sway of Han culture — and we said ‘No.'”

‘Han-centric nationalism and revisionism is a sign of a cultural inferiority complex.’ Discuss.

Some light viewing on YouTube…You’ve heard the song (Hump, Mireille), now see the movie: Les Bicyclettes de Belsize – a sort-of-cult swinging 60s short (25 mins) film that vanished soon after its release. Not exactly riveting (maybe fast forward through some of the singing), but some nice camera work.

Two special Christmas gifts. An outstanding seasonal song by Scott Walker if you click on the pic above, celebrating an event I saw on CNN at the White Swan Hotel in Guangzhou at Xmas 1989. And no link, but a short extract from a piece titled 不断构筑中华民族共有精神家园(深入学习贯彻习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想)–理论-中国共产党新闻网: CCP theoretician Pan Yue on building a shared spiritual homeland…

General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasizes: ‘Culture is the soul of a nation, and cultural identification is the root of national unity.’ ‘We should focus on building a modern civilization of the Chinese nation and continuously construct a shared spiritual homeland for the Chinese nation.’ General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important discourse points out the direction and provides the fundamental guidance for us to do well in the Party’s work on ethnic affairs in the new era. We must deeply understand the decisive significance of the ‘Two Establishes’, enhance the ‘Four Consciousnesses’, strengthen the ‘Four Confidences’, and achieve the ‘Two Upholds’. We should deeply study and implement Xi Jinping Thought on Culture, fully implement and execute General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important ideas on strengthening and improving work related to ethnic groups. Centering on forging a strong sense of community for the Chinese nation, focusing on building a modern civilization of the Chinese nation, we should advance the construction of a shared spiritual homeland for the Chinese nation.. 

The outstanding innovativeness of Chinese civilization has shaped the creative spirit of reform and innovation of the Chinese national community. The Chinese nation has always created its material, spiritual, and political civilizations with the spirit of ‘renewing daily, renewing endlessly’, standing as the most prosperous and powerful civilization in the world for a long period of history. The innovativeness of Chinese civilization has always been the internal driving force of historical development, allowing the Chinese nation to continuously renew and innovate. As the faithful inheritors and promoters of Chinese excellent traditional culture, the Communist Party of China, with the light of Marxist truth, has activated the genes of Chinese civilization, promoting the creative transformation and innovative development of Chinese excellent traditional culture. The Chinese nation has continuously achieved new accomplishments in economic development, institutional construction, cultural construction, social governance, and technological transformation..

There’s more…

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Do I feel an angry press statement coming on?

An SCMP op-ed laments the ‘patriots only’ District Council elections for their poor turnout, low level of diversity and the system’s overall lack of popular participation…

The dismal turnout for the latest election is a stark reminder of waning community engagement in Hong Kong, a reflection of a growing disconnect between people and their communities.

…While it is important to establish limits, excessively rigid restrictions risk dampening people’s enthusiasm and stifling their sense of belonging. Genuine community integration calls for more than superficial connections; it demands the public’s deep-rooted engagement and a profound connection to the community they call home.

…The crux of people’s sense of belonging lies in their active participation in community affairs. Hongkongers must be given a say in social matters and be able to actively contribute to community development. To achieve this, the government must prioritise the fortifying of public consultation processes, within and beyond the district council.

…One effective approach is to incorporate people from diverse backgrounds into district consultation committees, casting a wider net of perspectives to shape community decisions. By fostering collaboration and actively involving residents, we have the opportunity to weave together a tightly knit and prosperous community.

The piece is written by legislative councillor Tik Chi Yuen of the ‘Third Side’ mini-party, who is the nearest thing the chamber has to a token non-establishment member. 

The lack of public engagement isn’t an accidental by-product of the ‘all patriots’ system – it’s the whole purpose. In a top-down Leninist structure, the ruling party cannot share power or allow any rival political forces or independent institutions, or even civil society. The genuine political process takes place behind closed doors, not with ‘public participation’. Consultative bodies are in practice appointed by the ruling party, and their activities are stage-managed as shows of support for the government. Hence the near-unanimous votes of approval in China’s National People’s Congress (or in today’s LegCo).

If you want the public to be connected with the political process, you have to let them take part – running in elections and voting for the candidates they want. If you don’t let them do that, it’s because you don’t want them to have any input. The public obey the government, not the other way round. (I assume Tik knows all this.)

Of course, followers of Marxist-Leninist theory claim that their model represents the masses through ‘dictatorship of the proletariat’. But such systems are famously intolerant of criticism and protest.

On which note, three more items…

Hong Kong drops 17 places in the Fraser Institute’s latest Human Freedom Index, which reflects the state of things as of 2021. In 2010, it held third place; it is now 46th.

Not everyone might agree with the Index’s exact methodology, but Switzerland and New Zealand come at the top and places like Saudi, Venezuela, Myanmar and Syria at the bottom. The report says…

Given ongoing attacks on freedom in Hong Kong, we will be surprised if future reports do not show a continuing and pronounced degradation in the territory’s ratings, including a noticeable decline in economic freedom.

An HKFP op-ed on the Hong Kong authorities’ apparent fear of the gay rights movement…

…the size of the gay community in Hong Kong may be precisely the reason to suppress it. The Chinese party-state, and presumably its minions in Hong Kong, seems to see every minority of any size as a potential threat. The larger the minority, the larger the perceived threat, and thus the greater the perceived need to control or subdue it.  

The government comes up with interesting arguments against a previous court ruling against an injunction to ban dissemination of the song Glory to Hong Kong

The song boosted people’s morale and encouraged them to “do things they were not prepared to do,” [senior counsel Benjamin] Yu argued.

“When you try to upset the government, you don’t necessary need to use conventional weapons… the song is regarded by the composer himself as a weapon,” Yu told the court.

Despite the implementation of the national security law, Glory to Hong Kong remained prevalent and continued to “arouse emotions.” It was mistaken as Hong Kong’s national anthem more than 800 times, Yu said citing an estimation by the police.

So will they be coming for YouTube? I mean – boosting people’s morale like that?

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Market pessimism provides break from rule-of-law pessimism

Good news for writers of the Hong Kong government’s wrathful press statements: the overseas media have other things to look at than the Jimmy Lai trial. The bad news: the other things include Hong Kong’s dwindling stature as a financial hub.

Bloomberg looks back at a pretty bad 2023…

It was supposed to be the year Hong Kong rebounded onto the world stage, leaving behind an era marred by street clashes, political crackdowns and Covid curbs.

Instead, 2023 turned out to be one of the worst for the financial hub in recent memory, at least as far as its markets are concerned.

The Hang Seng Index has fallen 16%, losing ground [in terms of market cap] to rivals in Tokyo and Mumbai, and putting it among the biggest decliners globally. Funds raised by initial public offerings are the smallest since the dotcom bubble burst. Home sales are on track to be the lowest for any year since records began in in 2002. Office rents have fallen to levels last seen 13 years ago.

Underscoring the malaise, the city has been dubbed the “ruins of an international financial center” on Chinese social media, a viral label rejected by financial services chief Christopher Hui.

…In a sign that Beijing is growing concerned, officials from China’s Ministry of Finance traveled to the city last week to meet with bankers from firms including HSBC Holdings Plc and Standard Chartered Plc to discuss ways to bolster the city’s hub status.

…Further deterioration next year would likely increase doubt over the Lee administration’s ability to meet the demands of an international city, and undercut Xi’s efforts to increase foreign direct investment needed to shore up China’s struggling economy.

One main reason is that the HS Index is dominated by Mainland companies, and China’s demographics, debt problems and ideology are all dragging on the country’s economy. Another is that Hong Kong’s own ideological rectification – including political trials – is bound to worry investors. The FT says

[Hong Kong] now finds itself hitched to a slowing mainland economy. Additionally, competition from Chinese capital markets and a political crackdown by Beijing have left Hong Kong facing “an existential crisis as a major international financial centre,” according to [economics academic] Eswar Prasad

…Journalists, businessmen and lawyers have been arrested under security charges. The judges that preside over such cases are handpicked by Hong Kong’s top officials and there is a 100 per cent conviction rate. Local authorities have increasingly adopted tactics similar to those of mainland China against dissidents and others, including televised “confessions” and forced “repentance” letters.

…Faced with what a range of lawyers, bankers, professors and economists who spoke to the Financial Times describe as a “new reality”, foreign businesses and expats have continued to leave the city, their places taken by mainland firms and citizens.

It now seems to be ‘NatSec first’ rather than ‘business first’. In the Mainland, the SCMP reports that China’s state security ministry – not the economics one – warns about pessimistic comment on the economy as a national security threat…

“Talk concerning China’s decline is in essence an intention to create a ‘narrative trap’ or a ‘cognitive distortion’,” it said.

“It aims to doubt or deny China’s socialist system and attempts to strategically contain China’s development.

…“We still wonder if normal discussions about the problems of the economy will inadvertently cross the vague red line, now that Beijing clearly wants us to focus on the bright prospects.”

SCMP’s former editor notes in an op-ed that Beijing’s leadership wants ‘stronger economic propaganda and public opinion guidance to promote a positive narrative about the Chinese economy’…

The new directive seems to target online commentators and analysts who write research reports for clients at brokerages, consultancies and think tanks. Many online pundits have already seen their social media accounts suspended because of their frank and honest comments, and analysts have been warned they must be careful in their choice of words when writing about the Chinese economy.

One Hong-Kong-based fund manager told me that when sales people from Chinese brokers come to meet him, they first flash PowerPoint presentations on the bright prospects of the Chinese economy. After the presentation, they go on to share what they really think.

How is it possible to restore confidence if one has to be economical with the truth? No wonder the stock markets in Hong Kong and on the mainland fell on Wednesday, the first trading day after the work conference statement was released.

For a quarter-century or so, Hong Kong was a great place for stock investors because it was volatile – which can be fun – yet riding a major long-term uplift from China’s reform-driven post-Mao recovery. Reuters offers reasons why the great ‘maximum bullish’ days are finally over…

China likely grew 5%-or-so in 2023, outrunning the global economy. However, beneath that headline is the fact China invests more than 40% of its output – twice as much as the United States – suggesting a significant portion of that is unproductive.

That means many Chinese don’t feel that growth. Youth unemployment topped 21% in June, the last set of figures before China controversially stopped reporting.

University graduates who studied for advanced-economy jobs are now taking up low-skilled positions to make ends meet while others have seen their wages cut.

In an economy where 70% of household wealth is parked in property, home owners are feeling poorer. Even in one of the few bright spots of the economy, the electric vehicle sector, a price war is causing pain downstream for suppliers and workers.

The national pessimism could present President Xi Jinping with social stability risks, analysts say. If China does slip into a Japan-style decline, it would do so before ever achieving the kind of development Japan did.

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How ugly is this going to get?

The next 80 days look likely to put Hong Kong’s image through the shredder.

A succinct description of Jimmy Lai’s trial …

A hand-picked judge, no jury, denied his first choice of lawyer, & Beijing already suggested he’s guilty. Faces life in jail.

Also, ultra-high-level security around the courthouse…

Remember that the theatrics — the marathon trial, the 1000 police, the bomb truck, CSP Steve Li attending court etc — are themselves a political message: They inflate Lai’s culpability.

More on the scene outside the court here.

The first day starts with his lawyers arguing that the sedition charge (not the more serious NatSec one) should be discarded on statute-of-limitations grounds.

The Hong Kong government feels the need to stress that…

…all cases, including that of Lai Chee-ying, concerning the National Security Law are handled strictly on the basis of evidence and in accordance with the law.

In a statement, the Hong Kong SAR Government pointed out that as the legal proceedings involving Lai Chee-ying are still ongoing, it is inappropriate for any person to comment on the details of the case.

Global Times  (which is not just ‘any person’) weighs in on the trial…

…[against] which some Western media and political figures have launched a public opinion campaign by badmouthing the city’s rule of law and the National Security Law (NSL) for Hong Kong. Legal experts said begging external forces to support Lai and undermining the rule of law in Hong Kong are destined to be futile. 

These instigations of the Western media, politicians and organizations openly calling for the release of Lai and criticizing the rule of law in Hong Kong are extremely dangerous and irresponsible, some experts said. While some Western politicians and media hail Lai as “an anti-government hero” and “a pro-democracy fighter,” such campaign of smearing Hong Kong will also allow local residents to see clearly the true nature of Lai as a proxy for Western interests, they noted. 

The Washington Post reports on the conditions in which the ‘HK 12’ were held in Shenzhen. The 12 include Andy Li described by HKDC as…

…defendant-turned-prosecution-witness in JimmyLai’s trial … mistreated while in Chinese prison after he was caught trying to escape HongKong … remanded in an HK psychiatric facility, & has no independent legal representation.

As the WaPo reporter puts it

Andy Li is one of the listed prosecution witnesses in Lai’s case — but our investigation questions whether his testimony and evidence can be seen as reliable, given the circumstances in which it was derived

From the paywalled WaPo piece…

Li, a 33-year-old gifted programmer who during the protests became a significant player in international lobbying and fundraising efforts, has already pleaded guilty under the national security law for his own role in the democracy movement, and he is expected to tie Lai to an alleged foreign conspiracy against Hong Kong and China.

But Li was mistreated while in Chinese custody, a year-long Washington Post examination of the case found, raising questions about whether his testimony will be voluntary and reliable. The Post’s reporting reveals previously undisclosed details about the coercive treatment of the 12 escapees, especially Li, by Chinese authorities, and Li’s reemergence and continued detention in Hong Kong after seven months of isolation in China.

…For the first three months, according to several people familiar with the conditions, they were confined to these solitary cells, where two guards on shift took turns to watch them around-the-clock, even as they went to the bathroom. The lights were always on. During the day, they were forced to sit cross-legged on a concrete stool until their joints grew sore, except during mealtimes or interrogations. Walking around the cell was generally not permitted. At night, they were awakened at random hours, for no apparent reason. They were never allowed outside.

…Most of the 12 were not physically abused, but seven people familiar with conditions at the center said screaming could “consistently” be heard coming from one cell: Li’s.

“It is likely that what [Li] faced inside was 10 times worse” than the rest, one person said.

Kevin Carrico’s advice

Please, be a decent human being and remember that this is a show trial meant to imprison a critic of the regime, possibly for life.

Don’t take the charges and arguments seriously, don’t try to make sense of things –  it’s a show trial

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