Big Lychee, Various Sectors

Economist story (probably paywalled) about the Jimmy Lai trial…

The verdict is expected to be delivered in a few weeks or months; few observers doubt that the 77-year-old will be found guilty. Already serving another jail term, he could face a sentence of life in prison.

In the wake of the unrest, which turned violent, China’s ruling Communist Party engineered sweeping changes in Hong Kong’s laws to prevent further upheaval. These are being used to crush even peaceful activism that is deemed a threat to the party or the government in Hong Kong.

This wasn’t how it was supposed to be after Britain passed Hong Kong back to China in 1997. China promised to preserve freedoms. It allowed Hong Kong to keep a common-law legal system, which set the bar high for putting dissenters in jail. But two new laws have transformed the legal landscape. 

…Hong Kong’s courts still operate very differently from those of the mainland, where such events are often pro-forma, usually wrapped up in days and without media access. In Hong Kong they can last months, with evidence and witness testimony argued over in detail. Journalists can watch and report. There is no sign that the Communist Party intervenes directly in trials as it does on the mainland, where outcomes in politically sensitive cases are determined by its shadowy “political-legal” committees.

Yet the party has other ways of influencing outcomes. The NSL and Article 23 legislation allow related trials to be held without a jury—they now always are. Verdicts in these sorts of case are reached by three judges chosen from a special pool. Its members have renewable year-long terms, but the NSL says that if a judge “makes any statement or behaves in any manner endangering national security” while doing the job, they can be dismissed from the pool. China’s rubber-stamp parliament has the final say in the NSL’s interpretation. The Communist Party sees criticism of its rule as a national-security threat.

….judges know that any attempt to apply [International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights] principles in a way that prevents the party getting its way could end in frustration. The party makes clear its views using its local mouthpieces, especially two newspapers Ta Kung Pao and Wen Wei Po. These portray even peaceful protesters as guilty of heinous crimes against the state.

Kevin Yam posts a statement by the Australian Law Council on his disbarment and fining by the HK Law Society. 

HKFP on Anthony Chiu of ‘US 8964’ fame…

When Chiu was finally able to afford his own sports car from the German brand – albeit not his dream model – he was keen to secure a licence plate that would pay tribute to the [Porsche] Type 964. In 2020, he reserved about six standard vehicle registration marks containing the numbers “964” which were up for auction and paid deposits.

Without attending the bidding, Chiu was allocated the licence plate “US 8964” after it remained unsold at the auction.

Little did he know this number plate would put him in the crosshairs of the local authorities over the next few years. It was eventually confiscated by the Transport Department this month.

…Chiu’s prediction became reality this year. The 39-year-old told HKFP in June that he sent his car abroad after he and his family members faced a year of harassment. Anonymous letters were sent to his residence, workplace, his daughter’s school and relatives. The letters, seen by HKFP, contained his personal information, photos of his sports car, and accusations that he may have violated the national security law.

What a sight in the comments section on Friday: a parade of Anglos dismissing a Southeast Asian country’s food.

It is true that there are fewer Filipino restaurants than, say, Thai or Vietnamese in cities around the world. But they are there: I found one once in Bermuda, and there are many here in Hong Kong – one of the best known being Bedana’s in Jordan. 

Is Filipino food as aromatically dazzling as Thai? No – but few cuisines are. The classic dishes like adobo, pinakbet, Bicol express, pancit bihon, sinigang, etc are as distinctive and more-ish as anything you’ll get in a Vietnamese or Indonesian place. Key seasonings include vinegar or citrus for sourness, fermented shrimp, coconut, ginger, garlic and soy sauce. Some Chinese influence, and a little Spanish.

Why doesn’t it have the international profile of other Asian cuisines? Maybe because it isn’t always all that visually appealing. But also perhaps because many Filipinos themselves see it as second-best: they are hardcore addicts of American junk food. I’ve seen restaurant menus in Manila where you get page after page of salads, steaks, spaghetti and pizzas – and then a small section at the back for ‘native food’. 

A basic dish anyone can do at home: marinate thinly sliced beef in soy sauce and lemon juice; braise meat and marinade until done; add slices of onion towards the end, so they’re still pretty raw and crunchy. Voila – bistek!

As one commenter notes, the US has some outstanding regional cuisines (Cajun, BBQ, etc). And UK cities host great Caribbean, Middle Eastern and other cooking. All, of course, non-Anglo. It’s not that Northwest Europeans centuries ago were stupid – it’s just geography. Cool climates with a limited range of ingredients and lame seasonings produced a tradition of bland stodge, which survives today in the form of mac and cheese, bangers and mash, etc. (Some history.)

For adventurous types who don’t mind trying relatively obscure cuisines – possibly even vegetables – I can recommend Priyo Shaad, a Bangladeshi restaurant on Aberdeen Street, Central. I went over the weekend and will go back.

More on Jimmy Lai, this time from Reuters…

Lai, 77, who founded the pro-democracy Apple Daily newspaper, has pleaded not guilty to two charges of conspiracy to collude with foreign forces, and a charge of conspiracy to publish seditious material. He faces a maximum life sentence.

The trial is widely seen as a test for judicial independence in the financial hub under national security laws that were imposed by China in 2020 in response to mass pro-democracy demonstrations.

…Lai’s lawyer Robert Pang, who began his final legal submission on Wednesday, said Lai had been defending and exercising basic rights.

…”It is not wrong to try to persuade the government to change its policy. Nor is it wrong not to love a particular administration or even the country, because … you can’t force someone to think in one way or another,” Pang added.

One of the judges, Esther Toh, said that this was not what the prosecution argued.

“It’s not wrong not to love the government, but if you do that by certain nefarious means, then it’s wrong,” Toh said. Pang also disputed the prosecution’s citing of 161 articles published by the Apple Daily between April 1, 2019 and June 24, 2021 as seditious, saying they were “insufficient to draw any inference” of a conspiracy.

The prosecution repeated its thing about how Lai ‘had done nothing to stop illegal activities’ of others. Trying to work out ‘not loving the government by certain nefarious means’.

More from Esther Toh here.

Not a huge fan of people’s malodorous, slobbering dogs rubbing their slimy noses against my nether regions, but even I could think of less unwieldy rules for pets than those proposed for the MTR, as HKFP reports…

…passengers may only bring their pets aboard on weekends and public holidays. Their pets must be placed inside a carrier, with no body parts of the cat or dog exposed.

There are also size restrictions on the carrier’s size – its combined dimensions cannot exceed 170 cm. Pet strollers or carriers with wheels are not permitted.

Pet owners must use designated doors when boarding and alighting the train, and must keep their pets at the rear of the compartment.

They will first need to purchase a monthly HK$99 carrying pass, which allows them to bring one pet on board at a time. Each passenger can only have one carrying pass.

And it only applies to the Light Rail system up in Tuen Mun-Yuen Long, not the ‘real’ MTR network. File under ‘Why bother?’

Surely, all they have to say is: ‘dogs must be in a suitable carrier within standard baggage size limits’. None of the other rules are necessary. (Separate doors?)

Some weekend reading…

Is Xi Jinping funny? You will have to read the Ramble Substack to find out. To keep you on tenterhooks, here’s a sample…

After some complaints from the Maldives about Chinese tourists not eating out at local restaurants enough, Xi Jinping snuck in this laugher: “Our citizens must model civilization while abroad. Don’t litter plastic water bottles and don’t destroy their coral reefs. Eat instant noodles less, eat local seafood more.”

For cartography geeks – an Asia Times item on a Korean map based on Yuan-era Chinese sources. The Koreans involved appear to have made their homeland look bigger. More interestingly, the author says it shows the Persian Gulf area, Africa and even Italy and Spain, which in theory would not have been known to the map-makers. Indeed, the outlines of Africa, Arabia and the Mediterranean are recognizable. But there is far less detail, a different ‘hand’ or style of draughtsmanship, the scale is obviously inconsistent, and Southeast Asia, India and Sri Lanka seem to be overlooked. 

My theory: it looks like someone doing quite an impressive map of the East Asia region added material copied from a chart from Middle Eastern sources (for example, Omani traders would have known the East African coast). The Yuan dynasty was of course Mongol, and the Mongols had contact with – indeed took over parts of – the Abbasid empire that included much of the Gulf, Middle East and North African region (and knew of ancient Greek and other texts). 

Hardcore fans of this sort of thing can see a larger version of the article here.

Nice article on the Filipino community in London, complete with a restaurant menu. I now have a hankering for adobo fried rice.

The NYT reports on Hong Kong’s ‘soft resistance’.  While the paper struggles to work out exactly what it is (who doesn’t?), it notes the contradiction in the authorities’ narrative. This tension seems to be a permanent feature of Hong Kong now: on the one hand, the city is a modern, stable community that’s excellent for business; on the other, it is besieged by mysterious dangers lurking everywhere…

The phrase, which is used to describe anything seen as covertly subversive or insidiously defiant against the government, is showing up in news reports, speeches by top officials, and warnings from government departments. Officials and propaganda organs have warned of the threat of possible “soft resistance” in a book fair, music lyrics, a U.S. holiday celebration and environmental groups.

…To the authorities, “soft resistance” is nothing short of a national security threat, and at least a dozen senior officials have used the term in recent weeks. Warning signs include messaging that is deemed to be critical of the government or sympathetic to the opposition or to protesters, whom the authorities have described as rioters or terrorists.

“Soft resistance is real and lurks in various places,” John Lee, the city’s leader, warned in June…

…But even some within the pro-Beijing establishment are expressing concern that the government’s campaign risks stifling expression and hurting the economy.

…Prominent business figures with ties to the government say that the repeated emphasis on perceived security threats is undercutting more urgent efforts to attract foreign investment and preserve the city’s image as a global hub.

“We, Hong Kong’s pro-establishment, must clearly understand what the top priority is — national security or the economy, that’s in itself contradictory,” David Tai Chong Lie-A-Cheong, a Hong Kong businessman and a member of an advisory body to Beijing, said in an interview.

“When officials are constantly saying that Hong Kong is not safe, would you invest here?” asked [businessman] Mr. Lie-A-Cheong… He said that foreign business groups were having a hard time understanding the direction of Hong Kong’s policies.

Mr. Lie-A-Cheong described the situation in Hong Kong as “heart-wrenching” and said: “As a pro-establishment member for decades, I feel we have failed our jobs.”

HKFP update on Jimmy Lai’s trial. The prosecution argue that he should somehow have stopped activists lobbying overseas governments.

Lai’s supporters believe that Beijing will not want Hong Kong to suffer the bad publicity that would inevitably follow his death in prison. The Pillar on hopes to see him freed…

Speaking to The Pillar, Mark Simon, formerly a senior executive at Apple Daily and a close associate of Lai’s, said that while the outcome of the trial was seen as a forgone conclusion, Lai’s friends and family hoped its conclusion could clear the way for his release on humanitarian grounds.

“Jimmy’s trial is ongoing, but it is going to end,” Simon said. “And that is when we hope Beijing will start to step in and take a little bit more notice. We know the verdict, when it comes, is going to be guilty. But in a sense we are starting from that eventual ‘guilty’ and hopefully working from there to get him released.”

…Lai appeared in court this week wearing a heart monitor following the advice of doctors, who have confirmed the downturn in his health. According to Simon, this has made what already appeared to many observers to be a show-trail take on an element of absurdity.

“It’s a kind of cosplay,” he said. “Every time Jimmy comes to court, they have a four truck convoy to bring him in. They have guys with machine guns on guard. It’s ridiculous — a 77-year-old guy who’s now wearing an EKG vest because of his heart condition and they act like there is a Seal Team Six ready to bust him out. It’s just the way things are right now.”

Other than run a pro-democracy newspaper and exercise freedom of speech and the press, what did Jimmy Lai actually do? The prosecution apparently struggles to come up with much…

Delivering arguments for the seditious publications charge, lead prosecutor Anthony Chau referenced articles published in Lai’s Apple Daily including an editorial calling for sanctions against Beijing and Hong Kong authorities.

He said that those articles did not include “rational criticism,” and that none of them provided recommendations or ventured “to suggest any solutions.”

…Based on Lai’s prior exchanges with US politicians and diplomats, one could infer that the pro-democracy paper’s criticism of the Chinese authorities were an “indirect” means of calling on foreign governments to interfere, Chau told the court on Tuesday.

…Chau also maintained that the media baron had called for what the prosecution labelled “Sanctions, Blockades, or Hostile activity” (SBHA) against the central Chinese authorities, despite not having made any open or direct requests for such actions after the enactment of Beijing’s national security law in Hong Kong.

The prosecution submitted that Lai had adopted a “calculated and strategic approach” for foreign sanctions to be imposed on China and Hong Kong by deliberately and “falsely” picturing the Chinese Communist Party in a negative light.

From RTHK…

While the former media boss “did not overtly call or request” for such actions following the security law’s promulgation, Chau said, Lai’s remarks were “naturally and reasonably” persuading foreign countries to impose sanctions, blockades or hostile activity.

The court heard the Apple Daily founder had leveraged “international attention” to advance his own agenda following the law’s implementation.

“He’s aware of the international attention to his acts and conducts, and he continued to make use of this media to arouse international attention to achieve his own purpose,” Chau said.

…Chau also said articles published by the now-defunct newspaper failed to offer “rational criticisms” of the government or provide solutions to remedy the situation, dismissing the defence’s contention that such publications were “critical opinions”.

Judge [Esther] Toh questioned if suggesting solutions is necessary when giving critical opinions. In response, Chau said commentaries that focus on providing remedies would not have seditious intent.

Tiffany Yuen is released after serving over four years in prison for taking part in the pan-dems primary election in 2020…

The 31-year-old left Lo Wu Correctional Institution in the early hours of Tuesday and was reunited with her family. She is the 12th democrat to be freed after being convicted of conspiracy to commit subversion in Hong Kong’s largest national security case, which involved 47 pro-democracy figures.

Another press release about absconders…

The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) Government yesterday (August 18) expressed strong opposition to the granting of asylum to two Hong Kong fugitives endangering national security who have absconded overseas by Australia and the United Kingdom (UK) respectively.

A spokesman for the HKSAR Government said that the Chief Secretary for Administration, Mr Chan Kwok-ki, summoned the Consul-General of Australia in Hong Kong, Mr Gareth Williams, and the British Consul General in Hong Kong, Mr Brian Davidson, respectively yesterday afternoon. At the meeting, Mr Chan solemnly pointed out that the HKSAR Government opposes any country harbouring offenders in any form and is strongly dissatisfied with any conduct that harbours criminals under any pretext. He reiterated that such harbouring effectively allows certain individuals or organisations to be immune from legal consequences for their illegal acts, which is no different from granting a special privilege to break the law. What Australia and the UK have done in harbouring these offenders totally runs contrary to the spirit of the rule of law and is absolutely not conducive to the relationship between the HKSAR and the two governments.

All rather mild. At least they should say ‘so-called asylum’. 

From Formosa TV, a video of former CE CY Leung berating Falun Gong practitioners in a park. In Helsinki.

From HKFP – after a delay for a heart check, closing arguments start at Jimmy Lai’s trial… 

Lai stands accused of two conspiracy charges of foreign collusion under the Beijing-imposed national security law and a third count of conspiring to publish seditious materials under colonial-era legislation. He faces life behind bars if convicted.

At the centre of the case are Lai’s ties with foreign officials and politicians, which prosecutors allege he used to lobby for countries to impose “Sanctions, Blockades, or Hostile activity” (SBHA) against authorities in mainland China and Hong Kong.

“We submit that all these foreign connections and foreign collaborations show [Lai’s] unwavering intent to solicit SBHA from foreign countries,” [Prosecutor Anthony] Chau told the court. “These collaborations are long-term and persistent.”

Prosecutors named retired US army general Jack Keane, ex-US deputy secretary of defence Paul Wolfowitz, and Mary Kissel, an advisor to then US secretary of state Mike Pompeo, as Lai’s foreign connections, among others.

Chau also attacked the defence’s closing arguments regarding human rights issues in the case, which have yet to be delivered orally in court.

…He also argued that the Beijing-imposed security law does not criminalise “normal international exchange,” but it outlaws foreign collusion, such as requesting foreign sanctions to be imposed on China and Hong Kong.

If you meet a foreign official and say one thing, that’s normal exchange; say another, and it’s a crime carrying a possible life sentence. There is no jury.

A quick Google search shows that the BBC, Reuters, AP, CBS, NBC and others are all covering the case. As does China Daily…

When discussing the case, Chau argued that while the collusion agreement was formed before the implementation of the NSL, its continued existence after the law’s enactment rendered it illegal.

Chau explained that the law does not require agreements to be “renewed” — defendants who maintained the same unlawful intent after the NSL took effect would be in violation, regardless of when the agreement was originally made.

Chau further noted that the prosecution need not pinpoint the exact time or location where the agreement was formed.

…Chau emphasized that the mere act of making such requests itself violates the law.

CNN reports from a rooftop hut in Sham Shui Po…

On a sweltering summer afternoon in Hong Kong, Yeung Fong-yan’s flat felt like an oven. Her air conditioner ran at full blast, but the tiny, tin-roofed room still baked in the heat, with a thermometer inside reading 36°C (96.8°F).

“Sometimes it’s so hot we can’t even sleep,” Yeung said, seated on the small bed that doubles as her couch, dining table and sleeping quarters. Her 13-year-old grandson had just returned home from school, exhausted and drenched in sweat after climbing nine floors to reach their apartment.

Following overseas press reports about activists who have fled overseas, and the granting of asylum status to Ted Hui in Australia and Tony Chung in the UK, Hong Kong presents its latest angry press statement…

The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) Government made a solemn statement yesterday (August 16) to express strong disapproval and opposition against the harbouring of criminals in any form by any country…

A spokesman for the HKSAR Government said, “Following the ‘black-clad violence’ and the Hong Kong version of ‘colour revolution’ in 2019, a number of criminals who have committed serious offences endangering national security absconded … During abscondence, they continued to blantantly [sic] engage in acts endangering national security. These are out-and-out shameful and cowardly acts. 

“…Hong Kong has an independent judiciary with the power of final adjudication. Everyone shall receive a fair and just trial. Any country that harbours Hong Kong criminals in any form shows contempt for the rule of law, grossly disrespects Hong Kong’s legal systems and barbarically interferes in the affairs of Hong Kong. Turning a blind eye to the offences committed by the criminals and disregarding the potential security threats posed to the local community and residents, they shall eventually bear the consequences of what they have done.”

Fans of these press releases will detect a change of tone here, with less of the ‘despicable’ rhetoric (‘grossly’ and ‘barbarically’ notwithstanding) and a focus on the wrongness of the absconders rather than of foreign officials or commentators. Maybe someone has decided the usual strident phrasing strikes external audiences as unhinged and is counterproductive. Or perhaps the regular Pyongyang-trained PR specialist is having a well deserved rest on a beach for August. 

From HKFP – a list of performances, NGOs’ gatherings and other events in recent years cancelled because venue owners suddenly found they had to do maintenance work, or in one case encountered an ‘irresistible force’. They include Denise Ho concerts (twice), Pink Dot (after 10 years with no problem), a high school debating competition, an author’s appearance and a football game.

A (probably paywalled) WSJ editorial…

Closing arguments in the year-long trial of Jimmy Lai were postponed again Friday until he can be fitted with a heart monitor. The 77-year-old publisher has been jailed for nearly five years, most of it in solitary confinement and wretched heat…

Though Hong Kong’s authorities have spent more than a year trying to document the supposedly nefarious activities he is accused of against the Hong Kong and Chinese governments, all they have proven is that he was an energetic newspaperman.

Hong Kong was once known for its rule of law and free press. But China has imposed a national-security law on the territory that it has used to shut down criticism and toss critics in jail. Its harsh treatment of Mr. Lai has turned the local businessman into the world’s most famous imprisoned champion of freedom.

Enter President Trump. He has said in the past that he would try to free Mr. Lai from prison. And this week he told Brian Kilmeade of Fox Radio that “I’m gonna do everything I can to save him.” Mr. Lai spoke admiringly of Mr. Trump long before he was arrested and jailed.

…Hong Kong authorities claim Mr. Lai is getting “appropriate” care. But the Communist Party can’t want Mr. Lai to die the way Nobel laureate and human-rights activist Liu Xiaobo did in 2017 shortly after a medical release. The stain on China’s image would be substantial.

If Mr. Lai’s trial resumes, he is certain to be convicted given the current state of Hong Kong justice…

As a recent satirical headline suggested, Trump’s summit with Putin was so embarrassing that he might try to use the Epstein files as a distraction. It is a stretch to expect some sort of principled or strategically coherent action out of the White House. And the idea that Beijing worries about the PRC’s reputation is no less fanciful.

On other matters – RIP actor Terence Stamp. Apparently he was in some Superman and Star Wars stuff, but his best films were the Oz classic Priscilla, Queen of the Desert, and Steven Soderbergh’s 1999 The Limey, which has flashbacks to the main character’s early life in the form of clips from one of Stamp’s earliest performances, Poor Cow, in 1967, and a soundtrack featuring the Who, Hollies and Byrds.

The SCMP is like a luxury goods store: you often walk past it but hardly ever look inside. Deciding to have a rare sniff around Jack Ma’s organ, I find Mike Rowse bemoaning Hong Kong’s de facto curfews during bad weather, which these days seem to be once a week…

I feel obliged to ask if Hong Kong has become a city of wusses. Do we really have to close down much of the city every time there’s excessive rain?

…For the most part [during a recent ‘black rainstorm’ episode], trains, buses, minibuses and taxis seemed to have run smoothly … convenience stores were open, as were various food outlets. Newspapers were being delivered normally. Some fitness studios were open. Other aspects of daily life ticked along.

As I sat alone in the office reading the news and eating my McDonald’s hamburger, I asked myself who else was missing. The answer was clear: it was mainly office workers. If it was safe enough for the men and women who drive our buses to show up for work, why were all the people who would normally occupy the seats on those buses not there?

If it is fine for 7-Eleven and Circle K stores to open amid severe weather, why isn’t it for government offices or banks? I feel bound to ask whether there is some kind of division based on class that makes it acceptable for some people to get rained on while other precious types must be kept dry at all costs.

(Sort of. People in blue-collar jobs are probably more afraid of having pay docked or being fired.)

He suggests a vaguely more flexible approach to striking a balance between ensuring public safety and keeping calm and carrying on. 

One problem is that Hong Kong can have distinct micro-climates. It can be a normal breezy day in northern Hong Kong island, while in Cheung Chau they have 100-mph winds. Kowloon might be flooded, while Yuen Long has a light shower. And it can change suddenly.

The current alerts kick in city-wide automatically when a tropical cyclone exceeds a certain strength and/or proximity to Hong Kong, while the black rainstorm signal depends on overall quantity of rain in previous hours. Except that it seems (maybe I’m imagining it) that bureaucrats tweak the signals – traditionally to encourage people to go to work, but increasingly out of fear of being criticized for doing just that. They can’t win. 

My proposal…

The Number 3, 8, etc typhoon signals were designed in and for an era of sailing ships. Today, sailors have their own dedicated high-tech weather warning info, so this numbering ritual is redundant. Landlubbers don’t need numbered signals. Similarly, there is no need for amber and red rainstorm alerts: we can see if it’s raining by looking out the window.

The only thing people need to know is: do we go to work/school (or go home early) or not? In other words, all we need is a ‘stay in place’ advisory when conditions look likely to be seriously nasty – regardless of whether it’s a typhoon, a plain storm, a volcano, or whatever. 

It really comes down to transport, and much depends on where you live. Outlying islands’ ferries cancel services when it’s too windy, so they should have a ‘stay in place’ notice that applies to them only. And some rural areas with minimal bus/minibus connections might need something similar. But there’s no need to shut everything down throughout the urban areas, where the MTR and buses keep running, unless it gets really bad. This was obviously the case on Tuesday morning last week – even if, as Rowse noticed, by the afternoon most downtown districts were fine but empty of office types. 

Home Affairs Secretary Alice Mak celebrates international brotherhood week…

The Home and Youth Affairs Bureau is organising a series of activities marking the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People’s War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War…

Efforts include … improving a section of a village road connecting to the Sha Tau Kok Anti-Japanese War Memorial Hall.

“This is to enable all sectors of society to make better use of the rich local anti-Japanese war historical resources and deepen public understanding of the history of the war,” Mak said.

The government announces that 100 candidates for the 2025 Election Committee Subsector by-elections have been screened and approved as suitably patriotic to take part in the September 7 exercise. Of the 100, 28 will take part in elections for 21 seats in six contested subsectors (such as ‘Architectural, surveying, planning and landscape’ and ‘Representatives of members of Area Committees, District Fight Crime Committees, and District Fire Safety Committees of Hong Kong and Kowloon’). Another 72 in 22 other subsectors are returned automatically because there is only one candidate per seat. Plus there’s…

…one candidate whose nomination for the Heung Yee Kuk subsector was ruled invalid by the CERC due to his death during the nomination period.

A complete list of these subsectors is here. The Election Committee officially elects the Chief Executive, who was unopposed last time, and 40 out of 90 seats in the Legislative Council, many of which will probably also have just one candidate per seat. So in essence, this is about people pretending to vote for people who will in turn pretend to vote for a ‘winning candidate’ CE already decided in Beijing or for a narrow field of carefully vetted prospective lawmakers. 

In the old days, a few of the subsectors had sizable electorates of normal people, so observers could detect signs of opposition – though the structure ensured that it wouldn’t make any difference to the result. But things have changed. As HKFP says…

…According to voter registration figures updated last month, there are 8,877 registered voters for the Election Committee polls, down from 257,992 in 2020.

And most of these voters – even those for ‘grassroots’ – are in fact corporate bodies or associations.

The budget is (if I recall) over HK$200 million? Why bother?

If Xi Jinping vanishes for a while, does it mean there’s a coup attempt underway? Is 2027 some sort of deadline for China to invade Taiwan? Lowy Interpreter on how and why outsiders find it easy to misread China…

In a system that rarely admits failure, silence can be seen as proof – a classic case of confirmation bias. These episodes show how stories can eclipse evidence, especially when they align with our assumptions. Analytical rigor means asking not just what we know, but why certain narratives stick.

Courtesy of Joel Chan – a chart of rent hikes and cuts in different areas of Hong Kong…

The ‘winner’ districts in the left-hand column are mixed – what you might call lower-middle to upper-middle class. They are mostly downtown or have otherwise desirable locations, and they have relatively affordable newish residential blocks. Kai Tak could have been included. In short, neighbourhoods that attract new Mainland immigrants.

The ‘laggards’ on the right are distinctly high-end. Southside locations Deepwater Bay and Shouson Hill are popular among very well-paid expats, typically boom-era Westerners or Mainlanders, on HK$200,000 a month housing allowances plus chauffeur-driven cars. Sai Kung and Clearwater Bay residents are more likely to be airline pilots, senior engineers, or whatever – ‘no riff-raff’ versions of Discovery Bay. Either way, they are beyond the reach of the sort of Mainland immigrants coming in on talent visas (not to mention inconvenience and tedious lifestyle).

CY Leung again warns about possible problems with an unpredictable influx of Mainlanders. This time, he’s worried about pressure on university places from ‘anchor babies’ born here before 2013 (when he barred Mainland women from giving birth here). But he also likes to point out that the number of talent visas issued does not seem to tally with the number of actual residents. In other words, people are getting permission to settle in Hong Kong but not actually moving here. His concern is that they might suddenly turn up and overload the city’s capacity. Current policymakers are probably more worried that they won’t. Thanks to Covid-NatSec emigration and an absurdly low birth rate, talent visas seem to be the city’s main source of population growth.

Eye-catching headline from the Guardian – how a teenager in Leeds, England woke up to find that China had put a bounty on her head…

Media outlets across east Asia were reporting that [Chloe] Cheung, who had just finished her A-levels, had been declared a threat to national security by officials in Hong Kong. There was an offer of HK$1m (£94,000) to anyone who could assist in her arrest or capture.

News reports included a photograph of her aged 11, seemingly the only picture officials had of her before she and her family left to resettle in the UK in 2020. “I couldn’t even really recognise myself,” she says.

…Cheung had dreamed of a gap year travelling the world and visiting friends in Hong Kong. Neither was possible now, after Chinese officials vowed to “pursue for life” Cheung and others they accuse of promoting democracy.

Includes a photo of the ‘wanted’ notice featuring an 11-year-old schoolgirl. Her story has also appeared in the BBC (‘A Level student who became enemy of the Chinese state’), Express, Telegraph, and elsewhere. The BBC report prompted a sharp riposte from Hong Kong (or as the UK media tends to say these days ‘Chinese’) authorities. If the government issues an angry statement about the Guardian’s coverage, they could point out that Cheung turned 20 in February. Or something.

Want to see a video of a guy (reportedly) being held in a jail made of mosquito nets on a Guangdong sidewalk?

And here’s a vid shot from a nimble Philippine coastguard vessel being chased by a PRC coastguard boat when a PLA navy destroyer suddenly cuts right into the path of the latter – and yes, they collide. Look for the hole knocked in the destroyer’s port bow (looks like a whole plate is stoved in, which makes you wonder whether the welding was as good as it could have been).