Some Monday reading

From the HK Uncensored Substack…

A hard-hitting Observer investigation by Danny Vincent reveals the extraordinary lengths Hong Kong’s authorities have gone to keep Jimmy Lai isolated — clearing entire floors of Stanley Prison to cut him off from other inmates.

At 78, Lai can sometimes barely stand on his own, Vincent reports, as he suffers his sixth sweltering summer in solitary confinement. Aug. 8 was the hottest day ever recorded in Hong Kong, hitting a brutal 98 degrees Fahrenheit (36.9 degrees Celsius). Inside Stanley Prison’s heat-soaking concrete, with no air conditioning, Lai endures conditions that would test a man half his age. 

…CFHK Foundation President Mark Clifford told The John Batchelor Show that while Xi Jinping’s persecution of Lai is personal, allowing Hong Kong’s most famous political prisoner to die behind bars would be disastrous for the Chinese Communist Party’s reputation. 

Bitter Winter looks at televised confessions…

This [Stalinist and Maoist] logic has resurfaced in Hong Kong through a new media environment shaped by national security enforcement. The televised series “NS [National Security] Files: Decoded,” produced by the Security Bureau and launched on June 30, presents political cases as morality tales. The first episode opens with Leon Tong, the first dissident arrested under National Security Law. On July 1, 2020, the day the National Security Law came into force, Tong was arrested while riding a motorcycle with a flag protesting the statute. 

A host visits Tong in jail in “NS Files: Decoded,” episode 1, and the dissident states, “I understand the things I did seriously harmed the country,” a line that echoes the tone of earlier Communist confession rituals. The series uses interviews with national security police, dramatic footage of arrests, and a narrative structure that guides viewers toward predetermined conclusions. The accused appear as characters in a story crafted by the authorities. 

…“NS Files: Decoded” is promoted as a search for truth. Posters declare that the truth lies within the files. The presentation suggests discovery, yet the program’s structure offers conclusions before questions can form. Confession becomes the opening act, and the rest of the episodes reinforce the message through interviews and footage selected to support the storyline. Journalism becomes a device within a larger script.

This approach carries consequences for the city. Media outlets that once operated independently now collaborate with authorities on productions that frame dissent as danger. The same establishment that prosecutes journalists and publishers also produces content that defines acceptable speech. The boundaries between reporting and enforcement fade, and the public is invited to watch political cases as serialized drama.

The Stalinist and Maoist confession ritual has returned in a new setting. It no longer takes place in factories or stadiums. It unfolds on television screens, in online videos, and in competitions for schoolchildren. The machinery of remorse has adapted to a modern media economy, and Hong Kong has become one of its stages.

For those who missed it: Stephen Roach’s reply to the responses to his recent ‘Hong Kong is over’ comments…

Beijing’s actions, as condoned by a pro-Beijing Hong Kong government, resulted in a forceful takeover of the city rather than a spontaneous, organic evolution of a dynamic urban center. Would the large outflow of expats have occurred had there not been such a forced development? Would six foreign judges have not resigned? Would bookstores not have been closed? Newspapers not shut down? More so-called dissidents not rounded up?

It’s one thing to love your city for all its history and traditions. It’s another thing to conveniently look the other way and ignore a much bigger force that connects the dots. The questions I raise are not about normal occurrences, nor spontaneous coincidences, for any city. They all happened after Beijing’s takeover. Right before your eyes. Resilience is Hong Kong’s timeworn battle cry. To me, it looks more like forced capitulation.

Foreign Affairs asks if China’s economic imbalances could cause a worldwide crisis…

…the world’s ability to absorb Chinese overcapacity is approaching a breaking point. And if that breaking point comes, the consequence could be a global economic crisis at a time when governments are particularly ill equipped to manage the fallout. 

…The political appetite for accepting the deindustrialization and critical dependencies that come with the flood of Chinese imports is finite and shrinking. As these trends continue, protectionism is likely to rise, cutting off Chinese manufacturers’ market access and thereby short-circuiting Beijing’s strategy, introduced in 2020, of “dual circulation,” which promotes both domestic economic self-sufficiency and continued engagement in international markets. 

…China has a much larger economy and cannot continue on this trajectory without eventually running out of customers. Put simply, Beijing has outgrown its economic model. 

…Firms invest more to produce more to export more at lower or negative margins, subsidized by local governments whose own fiscal health depends on the factories’ staying open. The result is an industrial machine that cannot stop and cannot slow down—but that, owing to the limits of demand, cannot keep going. 

…Over the first two months of 2026, China’s trade surplus grew by more than 20 percent year-over-year. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund has projected that the global economy will grow only 3.1 percent this year. This trend is unsustainable: global demand is not rising fast enough to absorb Chinese exports at this pace, in key sectors or in aggregate. Eventually, the market for new factories in China will run dry, as did the market for property. China’s trade surplus could, in effect, collapse on itself. 

China’s exports are out-competing industries and swamping markets in both developed and developing economies. Beijing’s leadership surely realize how vulnerable this makes the country. If (or when) the rest of the world puts up serious trade barriers, it would cause a major economic shock in China.