Poor choices lead to ‘legitimacy dilemmas’

Not all Trump’s nominees for national security advisors are nuts like Seb Gorka. A sharper one is Alex Wong, a former State Dept official who outlines a no-nonsense analysis of why China inevitably sees the US as an adversary in a Hudson Institute article…

…the endgame has already been predestined by the strategic choices of the CCP … regardless of whether the United States pursues détente with China or democracy within it, the CCP will increasingly be presented with dilemmas for its legitimacy. 

…If, for instance, the United States establishes measures to insulate partners and itself from Chinese economic and political coercion, is that a deliberate challenge to the nationalist “Middle Kingdom” mythos the CCP leverages to justify its rule?

If the United States enforces international maritime law, defends norms of non-aggression, and seeks to maintain its access to the Indo-Pacific region and peace across the Taiwan Strait with an increased U.S. military presence in the region, is that an explicit challenge to the “territorial integrity” upon which the CCP bases much of its historical legitimacy and motivates its military buildup?

If the United States seeks to restore the reciprocal principles of the world trading system, halt China’s massive theft of intellectual property, and place controls on strategic technologies that could be turned against our own citizens and those of our allies, is that a deliberate attempt to close off the drivers of Chinese economic growth and techno-authoritarianism that maintain the CCP’s grip on power?

Certainly not. These are actions that fall well within a defense of U.S. security, freedom, and prosperity within a liberal order. But these questions and their answers point to the fact that the CCP’s parasitic abuse of both the liberal order and the U.S. economy has backed the United States into an endgame where—regardless of whether we seek to or not—our reasonable counters to Chinese strategy will create legitimacy dilemmas for the CCP. 

Obviously, lots of governments mess things up and quite possibly lose power as a result. The difference is that the Chinese system does not allow a different party to take over, and the leadership claims a track record of non-stop success to justify its monopoly position. So what happens when, through hubris or otherwise, you paint yourself into a corner and find that blaming external forces is no longer credible? Zero Covid was perhaps a minor example. The ‘sacred’ duty to take over Taiwan could become another. Gaming the international trade system – which was no doubt tempting and smart for a while – has clearly turned into the most pressing dilemma. How will China’s leaders deal with public disquiet over the impact of export-crippling tariffs, if and when they happen?

Does Hong Kong fit Wong’s pattern? Or was it more a case of perceived threats to the party’s power leading to choices that themselves created an even greater perceived threat? The return of the city to the motherland 27 years ago was an occasion of rejoicing throughout China and at least some high hopes in Hong Kong of a bright future as a special part of the country. If Beijing had allowed a more representative, responsive government in the city, we probably could have avoided the situation post-1997 where an aloof administration and frustrated populace were almost permanently at loggerheads over one issue or another. China could have had, in Hong Kong, Asia’s most vibrant commercial and cultural hub, but instead the leadership saw the city as a threat to its own power. Now, Hong Kong’s local officials feel a huge sense of achievement if they can pull in a few million more mainland tourists.

Which leads us to a Sixthtone article on the Xiaohongshu app’s impact on Chinese travel overseas…

In Laos, a solitary tree in the middle of a field has become an unexpected hit on Xiaohongshu, as Chinese tourists — and only Chinese tourists — flock to check in and snap photos for their social media page.

…In February, while on a trip to Malaysia, I met a local restaurant owner who refused to serve travelers who had only come because of Xiaohongshu. He explained that these customers didn’t truly appreciate good food, but were only interested in taking photos for social media.

…Ultimately, reducing travel to a collection of identical photos and poses can create a disconnect between tourists and the people and places they’ve come to see, one in which reproducing images for social media becomes a kind of end in and of itself.

In my neighbourhood, the must-photo spots include two rival bakeries just up from Hollywood Road. Tourists must pose outside the premises holding up a branded paper bag and cake. They must also have their picture taken standing in front of a lame mural on a nearby narrow street. And – strangest of all – there’s the much-photographed vista of exotic Caine Road from the pedestrian walkway. This is the view at its best, when parked school buses brighten it up…

Maybe the scene appears in a movie? The hordes lining up for photogenic pastries yesterday…