Big Lychee, Various Sectors

The 80th anniversary of the end of World War II will be marked around the world, in various ways. In Hong Kong the government will organize…

…a series of events to commemorate the 80th anniversary of victory in the Chinese People’s War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War.

…[Cultural, Sports and Tourism minister Rosanna] Law said the Museum of History and Museum of the War of Resistance and Coastal Defence, are collaborating with two museums on the mainland to roll out a war-themed exhibition.

It seems likely that the exhibition will focus on national rather than the local experience (the fall of Hong Kong, life under Japanese occupation, etc). It will be interesting to see what sort of treatment it gives to such subjects as Chiang Kai-shek’s relations with Roosevelt and Churchill, the scale of ROC forces’ operations, and the role of US aid… 

She said such activities are aimed at cultivating people’s national identity and belonging, therefore building a consensus on defending the homeland and contributing to the nation’s development.

“We will fully leverage Hong Kong’s rich and unique cultural and historical resources to showcase our special contributions during the war, deepen cooperation with all sectors of society, promote patriotic spirit, and further enhance Hong Kong citizens’ correct understanding and sense of identity towards the nation,” Law said.

It will also be interesting to see how ‘deepening cooperation with all sectors of society’ comes into it.

HKFP reports that…

Nearly 80 per cent of the 93 vacancies in Hong Kong’s Election Committee –  which nominates and selects the city’s leader –  will see no competition in next month’s by-elections.

The committee also returns 40 of the 90 LegCo members in December.

Also – the first relative of an ‘absconder’ to be charged under NatSec laws appears in court…

[Kwok Yin-sang’s] daughter, Anna Kwok, who lives in the US, is wanted by national security police for suspected foreign collusion.

According to the charge sheet, Kwok Yin-sang allegedly attempted to obtain funds from an AIA International life and personal accident insurance policy that belonged to Anna Kwok between January 4 and February 27.

Wearing a green T-shirt and a black mask, Kwok Yin-sang said “not guilty” when asked by the court how he would plead.

The conspiracy crowd won’t be impressed, but a serious article in the Conversation dismisses the Covid ‘lab leak’ thing…

Sadly, the focus on the Wuhan Institute of Virology has distracted us from a far more important connection: that, like SARS-CoV-1 (which emerged in late 2002) before it, there’s a direct link between a coronavirus outbreak and a live animal market.

It has also distracted us from the role of Wuhan authorities in covering up the initial outbreak, thus helping the virus spread to the rest of the world. And it has contributed to the anti-science idiocy of the current US administration…

To assign the origin of SARS-CoV-2 to the Wuhan Institute of Virology requires a set of increasingly implausible “what if?” scenarios. These eventually lead to preposterous suggestions of clandestine bioweapon research.

The lab leak theory stands as an unfalsifiable allegation. If an investigation of the lab found no evidence of a leak, the scientists involved would simply be accused of hiding the relevant material. If not a conspiracy theory, it’s a theory requiring a conspiracy.

It provides a convenient vehicle for calls to limit, if not ban outright, gain-of-function research in which viruses with greatly different properties are created in labs. Whether or not SARS-CoV-2 originated in this manner is incidental.

The Rope Skipping Association’s flag problems explained…

The official design, compared with the one used in the award ceremonies at the 2025 World Jump Rope Championships over the weekend, has petals that taper off more prominently into a point. Slightly more space is left between petals, and the stars are also larger.

The errant banner, snipped from the HKFP photo, is the top one. Note how the tiny stars and insufficiently pointy petals leap out at you. Looking at the government’s authorized version below, vexillological pedants will also notice differences in dimensions and maybe tone. But I suspect all three flags displayed at the medals ceremony are wrong in some way. The rope skippers could argue that theirs is aesthetically more pleasing and should be adopted as the real one, but probably won’t.

A pic of Bill Clinton with Jeffrey Epstein – outside the MTR.

Some mid-week reading…

I was in DC when the Washington Times first hit the streets (literally – they dumped piles of the paper on the sidewalks to try to get rid of them). Launched by the Moonies, it struggled to gain respect. But by today’s standards, it’s perhaps only averagely untrustworthy. Columnist Miles Yu of the Hudson Institute looks at Beijing’s upcoming parade to mark the anniversary of the defeat of Japan in World War II…

On Sept. 3, the Chinese Communist Party will orchestrate a grand military parade in Tiananmen Square to commemorate victory over Japan in World War II.

Ostensibly a tribute to wartime heroism, this display is, in truth, a monumental distortion of history, a calculated fiction meant to glorify the party, vilify its contemporary adversaries and mislead its people.

At the heart of this charade lies the falsehood that the CCP was the principal fighting force against Japanese aggression during the war. This claim is a brazen lie.

…the Soviets and their CCP clients were effectively bound to a policy of nonconfrontation against the Japanese in China during most of the war. Any military action by the CCP would have jeopardized the USSR’s neutrality pact with Tokyo, and thus Mao Zedong and the CCP carefully avoided real conflict with the Japanese. As a result, the Japanese military and the CCP forces virtually coexisted in the same large swaths of Japanese-occupied North China, where there was little to no communist resistance.

There’s a bigger picture here. Without Japan to worry about, the USSR was able to move forces west to resist Germany’s invasion and begin the pushback that led to the Nazis’ surrender. And without the USSR to worry about, Japan felt confident about attacking Pearl Harbor and launching war against the US and the UK in Southeast Asia and the Pacific. In the grand scheme of things – although China suffered massively in the war – even the ROC forces played only a limited role in Japan’s defeat.

From Bitter Winter – how Beijing’s United Front uses a Taoist sect in pushing ‘soft power’ overseas…

According to [a] source, in the wake of the Confucius Institute’s fall from grace in numerous western countries and the ill sentiments generated by years of wolf warrior diplomacy, Taoism presents the PRC government with an opportunity to drum up positive feelings by promoting a cultural export that is already viewed favorably in the West thanks to popular translations of the “Tao Te Ching” and associations with tai chi and traditional Chinese medicine. This source further posited that the UFWD may be anxious to insinuate the Chinese Taoist Association into overseas Taoist groups before the religion has a chance to grow much bigger “because it’s a religious movement the CCP thinks they can actually control abroad.”

I have never paid much attention to Taoism. Could it be one of the world’s more boring religions? A scholarly Mormon source tries to be nice…

…the [foundational text] Tao Te Ching is not always easy to understand, but in a very real sense it is not to be “understood,” at least with the mind.

The Catholic Encyclopedia takes a slightly more skeptical tack…

One may well ask how the pure abstract doctrine of Lao-tze was turned into a medley of alchemical researches, a practice of witchcraft, with the addition of Buddhist superstitions, which constitute today what is called Tao-kiao, the religion or the teaching of Tao. 

The Diplomat examines China’s soft power efforts in North Korea…

The delivery methods are varied and discreet. China explores multiple channels to get media content into North Korea, including sending USB drives, SD cards, and MP5 video players through traders or other North Koreans traveling to China. The goal isn’t just for North Koreans to consume Chinese content, but for them to become familiar with Chinese culture and view it as part of their daily lives.

Even the film Ten Years didn’t foresee the fate of the guy who – by chance – was issued car registration plate US8964…

On June 4, 2024, Anthony was driving out of Hong Kong Island for the third consecutive year. He was stopped by police on the Island Eastern Corridor and surrounded by at least 20 traffic officers and plainclothes detectives . He decided that was the last time and would never drive on the night of June 4 again. However, over the following year, he and his family continued to face threats and warnings, affecting their workplace, school, and even the public housing unit where their elderly family members lived. His six-year-old daughter was reported by a stranger posing as a parent for spreading remarks that threatened national security at school. His wife was also complained about at work, and all units in the building where they lived received anonymous letters detailing their personal information. He said, “I never imagined that the consequences of my actions would escalate to such a level, so complex and serious, affecting my family and my child. It was truly unforeseen.”

They emigrated and are now in the UK.

The Hong Kong Rope Skipping Association almost comes in for similar treatment, after reports suggested that they used the wrong flag at an international competition in Japan. (If they became ‘absconders’, would they be the HK Bail Skipping Association?)

The government cancels the passports of 12 of the 19 ‘absconders’ wanted in connection with the ‘Hong Kong Parliament’. You can also get seven years in prison for giving any of the 19 financial support.

On other matters – some pithy quotes in a thread by economist Anders Aslund on Donald Trump’s trade chaos…

…the greatest madness in economic policy in a developed country after WWII…

The only two countries Trump treat with respect are China & Russia…

Since no agreements are put on paper or being properly concluded, US trade policy will remain an enigma & unpredictable.

…Few government acts are more likely to attract bribes than the exemption from tariffs.

Among his other Twitter posts…

The European Union and Ukraine are facing a bizarre conundrum: How to handle a narcissistic and lawless senile toddler who has become almighty president of the United States

The Western alliance system is falling apart, helping dictatorships around the world … The UN is likely to be taken over by China & its ilk.

It is bizarre that the GOP & its billionaire donors (Koch, Schwartzman, Griffin et al) allow Trump to pursue an economic policy that will hurt them all.

From AFP via HKFP – Hong Kong introduces new stablecoin regulations…

Stablecoin excitement has gripped Hong Kong as the city prepares to launch a licensing system for the less volatile type of cryptocurrency, but authorities warn against overplaying its future role in financial systems.

I have lived through Hong Kong being gripped by Snoopy Dolls, SARS, a milkshake murder, and Carrie Lam’s extradition proposal. I don’t quite see it with this…

Stablecoins are useful internationally because they enable fast, low-cost cross-border payments, handy in markets where hard currency is limited, such as Argentina and Nigeria.

The tokens, bought and sold on digital exchanges, are also used as a safe way for crypto investors to station their profits, instead of converting to cash.

“The size of the stablecoin market has reached a level where the cash flows have geopolitical implications,” said Paul Brody, global blockchain leader at consulting firm EY.

EY still has ‘blockchain’ in job titles?

Traders in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies use stablecoins like Tether as a surrogate for real money because the crypto end of the transactions don’t comply with banks’ ‘know your customer’ and other regulations. So it’s a buffer between the regular financial system and the parallel universe of crypto. It also provides the liquidity that supports the market in Bitcoin and other crypto. Essentially, Tether and other stablecoin issuers (themselves part of the whole crypto pyramid) just print more of their coins to keep Bitcoin’s apparent dollar value up.

The other main use of stablecoins is for money laundering, avoiding capital controls, settling trades in drugs or guns, etc. 

Some players in the real-world financial sector think that there might be ways to develop payment systems using legally regulated stablecoins, and not just for Argentines or Nigerians. They just need to find out how using an in-house currency fully backed by real currency can be an improvement on just using… real currency. Like Park N Shop gift vouchers, but way more techie. They’re working on it. Meanwhile, it looks like another solution in search of a problem…

“It makes sense for Hong Kong to try anything — it’s kind of on a declining path, for reasons that are not to do with technology. It’s mostly about the politics, and its relationship with China,” [Jonas Goltermann at Capital Economics] told AFP.

Maybe they’re not that desperate. If you want a stablecoin licence from the HKMA, don’t bother calling them – it’s by invitation only. 

For a second time, the Hong Kong government gives the drug ‘space oil’ a new name. It seems like barely three weeks ago that they did this. Because it was. They declared then that the short-acting sedative would henceforth be called ‘zombie oil’ in order to vividly describe its effects on users and scare young people away from using it. But perhaps this inadvertently gave the substance a more hip and groovy branding. So they’re renaming it again…

Security minister Chris Tang on Thursday said authorities have officially renamed the “space oil drug” as etomidate, after more than 550 arrests were made over the drug in the first half of the year.

Speaking to reporters after attending a Fight Crime Committee meeting, Tang said the number of arrests was a nine-fold increase year-on-year, and the name change would be more effective in deterring people from taking the drug.

“Some of the drug traffickers make use of the name to promote a sort of fantasy and some of the positive feelings after taking the drug, and I think this is absolutely wrong,” he said.

“Etomidate only brings you harm…We have to properly name it as etomidate so as to eradicate the positive naming and positive side of the drug,” Tang added.

No doubt the new nomenclature will catch on.

I suddenly thought I had some of this stuff in the freezer, but on closer inspection I find it’s this.

(Not a big fan of zombie movies, but I would recommend the French TV series Les Revenants, clearly inspired by David Lynch.)

The annual Pink Dot gathering is cancelled after the usual venue at West Kowloon Cultural Hub-Zone becomes unavailable. (A pre-emptive measure to ward off a possible outbreak of ‘soft resistance’?)

There was a time when Hong Kong lawmakers wouldn’t usually all agree on anything. Not so today. They release this joint statement…

All LegCo Members stress that the Basic Law of the HKSAR of the People’s Republic of China (Basic Law) clearly stipulates that LegCo of the HKSAR shall be the legislature of the region. Fugitives endangering national security who fled overseas have been challenging the bottom line of “One Country, Two Systems” and the HKSAR’s national security. They blatantly organised the so-called “election” for the “Hong Kong Parliament”, seriously violating the Basic Law and the HKNSL, and undermining the Constitution and constitutional order of the HKSAR as established by the Basic Law. The unlawful election is nothing but a farce. Their aim was to disrupt the hard-earned stability and peace in Hong Kong, and attempted to commit the offence of subversion of state power, seriously endangering national security.

Safeguarding national security is in line with international practice. LegCo Members firmly reject and castigate the biased, groundless, smearing and double-standard remarks by some politicians in western countries against the HKSAR Government’s lawful pursuit of individuals who endangered national security.

You want more? Oh, OK then…

The HKSAR Government’s decisive and swift law enforcement actions are not only righteous, but also reasonable, legal and constitutional. The actions are also widely supported by various sectors of the community. All LegCo Members fully support the Hong Kong Police Force in their lawful efforts to apprehend national security offenders who fled overseas. They also resolutely support the statement issued by the Office for Safeguarding National Security of the Central People’s Government in the HKSAR, and firmly support sanctions against the fugitives in order to safeguard national security and the stability of Hong Kong.

Michael Kovrig – held in Beijing for three years – discusses whether it is safe for foreigners to visit China…

For alert foreigners who visit or live in China, this summer has been particularly stressful. A Beijing court sentenced a Japanese Astellas Pharma executive to prison for espionage. Wells Fargo & Co. suspended staff travel after one of its Chinese-American managing directors visited and discovered she couldn’t leave. News broke that state security had detained and interrogated a visiting U.S. Commerce Department employee during a personal trip and subjected him to an exit ban. And BlackRock Inc. warned employees not to use any corporate phones or computers in China.

Sadly, these are only the most recent examples in a growing inventory of incidents in which foreigners fall victim to China’s draconian security apparatus and increasingly weaponized political-legal system.

Some weekend reading: American Prospect on the vast amount of venture capital pouring into AI…

Between VCs, Big Tech, and power utilities, the bill for generative AI comes out to close to $2 trillion in spending over the next five years alone. Adding all this up, some are starting to question the economic fundamentals of generative AI. Jim Covello, head of global equity research at Goldman Sachs, doubts the technology can recoup what’s been invested as, unlike the internet, it fails to solve complex business problems at a lower cost than what’s available today. Plus, he argues, the most expensive inputs for generative AI, GPUs and energy, are unlikely to decline meaningfully for the tech industry over time, given how far demand outstrips supply for both. While AI-fueled coding could definitely boost productivity, it’s hard to see how it could become a multitrillion-dollar industry.

…as AI expert Gary Marcus pointed out, DeepSeek’s R1 model spells serious trouble for OpenAI and the cloud giants. The only way OpenAI could hope to recoup the billions it was spending on GPUs to train bigger and bigger models was to maintain a large enough technical lead over other AI companies to justify charging up to $200 for paid subscriptions to its models. That lead just vaporized and was given to the entire industry for free. In response, Altman has already twice cut the prices of his subscriptions in an effort to stay competitive. But without millions of paid subscriptions, it’s difficult to see the pathway to profitability for a company that loses $2 for every $1 it brings in and expects costs to continue to grow approximately tenfold in five years. OpenAI has set $100 billion as its break-even point, which would require it to increase its revenue by a factor of 25 in just five years, an incredible feat of scale that its current business model does not justify.

(An amusing example of an attempt to train AI – Grok, to be specific – to produce gibberish.)

A young man is found guilty of disrespecting the national anthem…

Lau Pun-hei, a 19-year-old student in politics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, was convicted on Wednesday for turning his back to the pitch while the Chinese national anthem, “March of the Volunteers,” played ahead of the match at the Hong Kong Stadium on June 6, 2024.

…[Magistrate Kestrel] Lam rejected the defence’s argument that some other people in the stadium, including the police officers who filmed the spectators while the national anthem was being played, also had their backs facing the pitch.

…Lau’s offence was of a “minor nature,” Kwan [Lau’s lawyer] said, as his act was “quiet, peaceful, and did not involve any violence.”

Kwan urged the court to adopt a non-custodial sentence given the defendant’s young age.

Would the court really jail someone for this? Since you can get seven years for writing ‘seditious’ graffiti, it’s possible – though the anthem-insulting thing is not a NatSec offense.

Also, how many cops in the stadium are actually monitoring the crowd looking for people facing in the wrong direction?

What if you turn 90 degrees to the side?

HKFP reports that publicly funded universities in Hong Kong are signing up to an ‘accountability agreement’ requiring alignment with Xi Jinping’s remarks…

Local media reported on Monday that this was the first time the UGC agreement had explicitly required local universities to follow the guidance of the central government since they began signing the three-year contracts in 2019.

The new agreement instructed universities to strengthen education on China’s Constitution, Hong Kong’s Basic Law, and the national security law. This, the agreement said, would help nurture future leaders with “a strong sense of integrity, law-abidingness, civic responsibility, work ethics, and mutual respect.”

A very quick skim through the agreements suggests that all universities have signed identical documents. The wording allows the institutions to stop short of direct, wholehearted reciting of some distinctly Mainland-style political slogans. For example…

CUHK acknowledges the six strategic directions which the Government has established for the 2025-28 triennium and accepts the continual responsibility to pursue and implement them throughout the triennium, namely – 

(a) Supporting Hong Kong’s integration into the overall development of the country and creating impetus for Hong Kong’s growth The UGC-funded universities should be bold and innovative in their institutional visions that dovetail with the strategic development of our nation and Hong Kong over the longer horizon. They should proactively examine their strategies and priorities to seize opportunities for contributing towards Hong Kong’s integration into the overall development of our nation, particularly “invigorating China through science and education”, the National Five-year Plan, the GBA Development and the Belt and Road initiative. They should also strive to follow the advice and guidance of the Central Government on the future of Hong Kong, particularly in light of the “four musts” and “four proposals” and observe President Xi Jinping’s remark on creating strong impetus for Hong Kong’s growth and nurturing young talents for Hong Kong’s stability and prosperity. 

An SCMP story on the ongoing bursting of Hong Kong’s office bubble…

The Law Society of Hong Kong has bought an entire floor of offices in what was formerly the world’s most expensive tower at a 50 per cent discount, the latest among astute investors who are picking up property in the city at bargain prices.

A ‘bargain’? A 50% discount to what, exactly?

The Law Society paid HK$345 million (US$44 million), or HK$14,000 per sq ft, for 24,980 sq ft (2,320 square metres) on the 26th floor of The Center from Gale Well Group…

The purchase price was half of the HK$693 million that Gale Well paid in 2021, when its founder and CEO Jacinto Tong Man-leung bought the property from the late Ma Ah-muk. Ma, dubbed Hong Kong’s Minibus King, passed away in March last year.

…The Center, a 73-storey office tower, was sold in 2018 for a record HK$40.2 billion (US$5.2 billion) by the city’s wealthiest man, Li Ka-shing, to a group of 10 local tycoons in what was then the world’s priciest property deal. Not long after the transaction, Hong Kong’s economy was driven into a slump by six months of anti-government protests and three years of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Does the deal make the Law Society an ‘astute investor’? Leaving aside whether a professional body is (or should behave as) an investor, most of the astuteness in the story must be that of Li Ka-shing, who sold at exactly the right time. It helped, of course, that 10 local tycoons were non-astute enough to pay such high prices without asking themselves why Li was letting such valuable assets go. (Hong Kong has only one real tycoon; the rest are wannabes and amateurs.)

Assuming the Law Society really needs an entire floor of prime downtown office space, the purchase could in the long run save it money it would have spent on rent (assuming also that it has nothing better to do with its apparently significant reserves). Maybe a 50% discount on an utterly stupid price will even offer some long-term capital gains, once the office glut (still growing) is cleared – one day, maybe. It can’t be worse than the previous buyers’ experiences…

Fast forward to 2024, and several of The Centre’s buyers – including the Shenzhen-based developer Kaisa Group, the Shanghai developer Shimao Group and Ma’s family – had to put their prized asset on the market to cash out. The latest was Tong’s Gale Well, which had been trying to sell HK$3 billion of assets to prevent banks from calling on his loans. During a March interview with the Post, Tong said the three floors of The Center – for which he paid HK$2 billion between 2018 and 2021 – were “not for sale”.

Eric Lai in The Diplomat on Hong Kong’s new prison rules …

Five years after China imposed the National Security Law (NSL) in Hong Kong, most of the pillars that once upheld a free and open society – namely independent media, human rights organizations, political opposition, and liberal as well as critical voices – have been dismantled one by one. Hundreds of individuals have been arrested and charged with national security offenses, many receiving long prison sentences.

Yet the local authorities remain unsatisfied with the extent of the crackdown. They are now moving to expand their control inside the prison system.

…the CSD may request that prisoners open letters from their lawyers, potentially breaching legal professional privilege. It also now has the power to obtain judicial warrants preventing prisoners from receiving visits from certain lawyers, clergy, or medical professionals, thus obstructing access to essential professional supports of choice.

Additionally, the CSD may censor or withhold letters and books sent to prisoners on national security grounds. All these measures share a clear objective: to sever communication between prisoners and the outside world, making the prison environment increasingly opaque.

The Standard reports a new fad among the anime crowd: cosplaying the Financial Secretary pushing ‘creative industries’.

Tweet by Sasha Gong, one of the 15 latest overseas people wanted by Hong Kong NatSec police…

Last Friday, I woke up to shocking news: the Hong Kong government had placed a bounty of roughly $30,000 on my head. My photo appeared on a wanted list. The accusation? Treason. They allege that I’ve engaged in activities to overthrow the government. They also claimed that I left Hong Kong in 2013, implying that I was a Hong Kong resident under their jurisdiction.

Let me be absolutely clear. I am not a Hong Kong resident—and never have been. I have been a proud citizen of the United States for decades. 

Reuters report on Taiwan TV series Zero Day…

A new Taiwanese television series that imagines the run-up to a Chinese invasion is getting rave reviews from viewers, who said the first programme featuring the sensitive topic is a wake-up call for the public facing heightened Chinese military threat.

In the show, “Zero Day Attack”, a Chinese war plane goes missing near Taiwan. China then sends swarms of military boats and planes for a blockade as Taiwan goes on a war footing. Panic ensues on the streets of Taipei.

At viewings in Taipei last week attendees have included the top U.S. diplomat in Taiwan Raymond Greene, who is director of the American Institute in Taiwan, and Taiwanese tycoon Robert Tsao, a strident critic of Beijing.

The series is set to premiere on August 2 in Taiwan, followed by its Japanese release on Amazon Prime Video.

…The drama focuses on several scenarios Taiwan might face in the days leading up to a Chinese attack, including a global financial collapse, the activation of Chinese sleeper agents and panicked residents trying to flee the island.

“Without freedom, Taiwan is not Taiwan,” the actor who plays a fictional Taiwan president says in a televised speech, urging unity after declaring war on China, in the show’s trailer.

The live broadcast then gets abruptly cut off, replaced by a feed of a Chinese state television anchor calling for Taiwanese to surrender and to report “hidden pro-independence activists” to Chinese soldiers after their landing in Taiwan.

The Jamestown Foundation’s contribution to the newly popular genre of of papers pondering Xi Jinping’s hold on power…

Structural purges, which have halved the [Central Military Commission]’s size, likely constitute a systematic rebalancing of Xi’s patronage networks. While these actions do not yet amount to an overt power shift, they signal that the outwardly monolithic military-security apparatus Xi once relied upon is now visibly fractured and contested, even as he retains formal authority.

The possibility of fragmentation and realignment within the elite can no longer be ruled out, though no fixed timetable for such a transition exists. As Xi enters what is effectively the indefinite phase of his tenure, Party elites will increasingly maneuver around the unresolved question of succession. For now, Xi appears capable of dictating terms, but as time goes on, the system will only reduce his power to do so.

Soft resistance hits North Korea…

According to a Daily NK source in North Hamgyong province recently, four people in their twenties were arrested in Chongjin by local state security officers for talking like South Koreans. A local resident had tipped off authorities after spotting the group mimicking lines from South Korean films and dramas.

The four are currently being questioned at the city’s Ministry of State Security branch and will likely face six months to a year of forced labor.

Had my ninth Covid shot. The doctor said not many people are bothering any more. I have not (so far as I know) had the illness.

The Hong Kong government announces HK$200,000 bounties for no fewer than 15 people accused of ‘subversion’ (and other stuff) for taking part in elections for a ‘Hong Kong Parliament’ that few have ever heard of, probably because it doesn’t really exist…

…[the group] held unofficial polls outside of the city to form a shadow legislature to “pursue the ideal of Hong Kong people ruling Hong Kong.”

The group also vowed to “uphold the core value of popular sovereignty,” as well as “oppose one-party rule and tyranny.”

…Police said if an offender turns themselves in and “truthfully confesses” to their crimes, they may be granted a lighter or reduced sentence.

“Police urge the wanted individuals to turn back before it’s too late. We hope they will seize the opportunity to surrender themselves in Hong Kong and not continue down the wrong path,” the police said in a statement issued in Chinese.

The government press release says…

The “Hong Kong Parliament” aims to subvert state power; its objectives include promoting “self-determination”, promulgating the so-called “Hong Kong Constitution”, and overthrowing or undermining the basic system of the People’s Republic of China established by the Constitution of the People’s Republic of China or overthrowing the body of the central power of People’s Republic of China or the body of power of the HKSAR with unlawful means, thereby suspected of committing the offence of “Subversion” contrary to Article 22 of the Hong Kong National Security Law.

Several of the suspects (details here) already have HK$1 million bounties on them. The fact that the rewards this time are just 200 grand suggests that even the authorities don’t regard the group’s activities as an especially mortal threat to the PRC’s national security. (I could invite a few friends over, and we could all sit around the table and declare ourselves the ‘Hong Kong Parliament’ – the sovereign power would carry on as if nothing was happening.)

Angry-ish (no ‘despicable’) government press release on UK officials’ criticism of the bounties’ thing,,,

A spokesman for the HKSAR Government said, “Endangering national security is a very serious offence. No country will watch with folded arms on acts and activities that endanger national security. The ‘Hong Kong Parliament’ aims to subvert state power; its objectives include promoting ‘self-determination’, promulgating the so-called ‘Hong Kong Constitution’, and overthrowing or undermining the basic system of the [China]…”

     “…It is both necessary and legitimate, and is also in line with those of other countries and regions around the world … Those absconders hiding in the UK and other Western countries are wanted because they continue to blatantly engage in activities endangering national security. More so, they continue to collude with external forces to cover for their evil deeds. It is necessary for the Police to take all lawful measures to strongly combat the acts of abscondment, and such actions are fully justified, necessary and legitimate.

‘Angry-ish’ perhaps because the UK is considering allowing extraditions to Hong Kong (though presumably it would only apply to cases where the alleged offence is a crime in Britain).

Swiftly followed by another…

The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) today (July 27) strongly opposed and disapproved of smears with distorted facts by government officials and politicians from countries like the United States, Canada and Australia, as well as anti-China organisations, on HKSAR’s lawful act to pursue wanted persons endangering national security absconding from Hong Kong. Not only did such foreign government officials and politicians, as well as anti-China organisations, turned a blind eye to illegal acts of criminals, but also deliberately smeared and spread irresponsible remarks, in an attempt to mislead the public, about the measures and actions taken by the HKSAR Government in accordance with the law. The HKSAR Government strongly disapproved of such acts.

An HKFP op-ed ponders the question of how NatSec police caught the 18-year-old who wrote seditious graffiti on the wall of a China Hong Kong City men’s room. The investigation presumably started after someone reported the presence of such a message. The writer rules out the installation of cameras inside toilet cubicles. Assuming that’s the case (hmm…), the police must have used CCTV outside the restroom, positioned so it showed the faces of everyone entering or leaving. Then, they would need to station at least one cop there everyday to check the walls of the stalls for fresh scribblings every time after someone had used the facilities. Since they would probably have had more than one plain-clothes man hanging around at any given time (the same guy lingering all the time would raise suspicions), we could be talking hundreds of man-hours. 

(I wonder what the cops themselves thought of having to do this. Did they ask themselves if this is what they signed up for when they joined the force?)

An SCMP op-ed looks at restaurant closures and pleads for lower rents…

Former Hong Kong chief executive Leung Chun-ying … has been trying to talk sense into landlords. Last month, he called on them to cut rents or risk missing out. This month, he warned of the “sheer self-delusion” of holding out for high rents.

…Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu has been calling for Hong Kong’s traditional industries to innovate … But, unlike Leung, Lee has not really addressed the elephant in the room: rent. If we understand Leung correctly, he is in effect telling landlords they must change their ways or businesses could perish in this economic environment.

The brilliant songwriter Tom Lehrer has died at the age of 96. He has left his work to all of us. My father introduced me to his songs when I was around 12. ‘In the land of the boll weevil, where the laws are medieval’ (here).

From Thematic Markets, a long piece suggesting that China’s industrial overcapacity is deliberate and the country’s economy is incompatible with much of the rest of the global economy…

…contrary to another popular myth, China’s rise has little to do with efficiency or productivity.  China’s ascent results mostly from beggar-thy-neighbor industrial policies.  China’s total factor productivity (TFP) growth – growth in output not resulting from adding more labor or capital, i.e. efficiency and innovation – has been negative for nearly a decade (Figure 1); i.e. more than all of China’s growth since 2013 has come from increasing capital, even as efficiency subtracted from output.¹³  As a middle-income country, China should offer higher returns on investment than an already rich country, yet the marginal product of capital in China had fallen below that of the United States (Figure 2).  Put another way, China’s economy now is so inefficient that it requires an extraordinary $11 of investment to create $1 of incremental of output.  Furthermore, these figures likely understate China’s inefficiency since they are based on reported Chinese GDP growth that probably is overstated.

…For nearly 30 years, Chinese political, military and diplomatic doctrine has been to use economic development to raise China to a position where it could challenge and displace the US-dominated world order.  President Xi has been unabashedly clear in his desire to create a new “multipolar” order that returns China to its historic role as the ”Middle Kingdom.”¹⁷  He has been similarly blunt that he expects and is preparing for war with the West that he aims to win.¹⁸  Mr. Xi’s top international and domestic policy priorities – the “Made in China 2025” and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – aim to make China as self-sufficient as possible while placing it at the center of a new international order based on dependencies to China that guarantee the domestically unavailable resources. 

Hot on the tails of the SCMP’s article on why people like decent affordable food outlets, the BBC asks why locals in places like Barcelona hate tourists.

From Ars Technica – how conspiracy theorists think they’re normal…

In 2015, Pennycook made headlines when he co-authored a paper demonstrating how certain people interpret “pseudo-profound bullshit” as deep observations. Pennycook et al. were interested in identifying individual differences between those who are susceptible to pseudo-profound BS and those who are not and thus looked at conspiracy beliefs, their degree of analytical thinking, religious beliefs, and so forth.

They presented several randomly generated statements, containing “profound” buzzwords, that were grammatically correct but made no sense logically, along with a 2014 tweet by Deepak Chopra that met the same criteria. They found that the less skeptical participants were less logical and analytical in their thinking and hence much more likely to consider these nonsensical statements as being deeply profound. That study was a bit controversial, in part for what was perceived to be its condescending tone, along with questions about its methodology. But it did snag Pennycook et al. a 2016 Ig Nobel Prize.

..Take the case of the Sandy Hook conspiracy, where adherents believe it was a false flag operation. In one sample, 8 percent of people thought that this was true. That 8 percent thought 61 percent of people agreed with them.