Big Lychee, Various Sectors

Mark Simon on the CK Hutchison ports drama…

If they come for Li, they will come for anyone.  It is impossible to state that Hong Kong is a safe investor environment, when even Li is defenseless. If the largest, most successful businessman in its history is under threat for actions that are completely legal, everyone will be.

…No news organization anywhere in the world has covered Li Ka Shing in greater depth or more extensively than Next Magazine and Apple Daily; the publications of now jailed news media owner, Jimmy Lai.  

Without being too snarky, there’s a lot of people out there, giving their opinion on this deal. I’m sorry, but nobody knows Li better than the former journalists of our organization.  

We are 100% certain that Li would never do this port deal if he did not think he had approval from Beijing.  It would defy every action of his entire career that he would proceed to sell an asset when he understands the strategic implications for China without having a green light..

So what happened? Why now the attacks on Li’s port sale?

Donald Trump was able to claim victory in kicking out a Chinese linked company from Panama.  Trump’s victory was Xi Jinping’s loss. Xi doesn’t take losses.  

So just as they always have, the CCP with the assistance of the Hong Kong government is doing a little historical rewriting.  Li will be the bad guy.  Hong Kong chief executive John Lee will be the incompetent dupe. Hong Kong’s financial system will be the victim.

First they came for Jimmy Lai, now they come from Li Ka Shing. The irony is, the one company that would’ve said something, would have stood for the Hong Kong financial system, and Li, was Jimmy Lai‘s Apple Daily.

And from the (paywalled) Economist…

Mr Xi’s reported displeasure is understandable, given his image as a muscular leader capable of challenging America and defending China’s global interests. Chinese officials thus worry about appearing weak or unresponsive, says Zongyuan Zoe Liu of the Council on Foreign Relations, a think-tank in New York. Mr Xi also wants private Chinese companies to be more “patriotic” without government intervention.

Still, his current priority is to avert a full-scale trade war with America, since its impact on China could be more damaging for him. He may hope to reach an accommodation over Taiwan, too. Seeing Mr Trump’s preoccupation with Panama, there could also be leeway to carve out some ports from the deal during the 145-day window for exclusive negotiations. Conceding will be painful for Mr Xi. But resistance, in this case, could be more so.

Both these pieces suggest performative outrage to cover embarrassment rather than a vociferous determination to force CK Hutchison to abandon the deal.

Meanwhile, the company has offered shareholders HK$25 a share to approve the deal – 65% of its Friday closing price of HK$43.25.

Perhaps there’s a case for owning shares in legacy Hong Kong stocks like Cheung Kong, HSBC, Swire, Cathay, utilities, etc: potential dismemberment/sequestration break-up value when geopolitical tensions/Beijing pressure make it pointless to carry on. 

Further to Jimmy Lai – the Guardian explains the Court of Final Appeal’s recent rejection of his appeal against the barring of his British lawyer…

This week, an obscure legal development has, in the eyes of some legal experts, inflicted another cut on the city’s once revered legal system.

…The details of the saga date back to 2022, when [Tim Owen KC] was first approved to represent Lai. The Hong Kong government objected to Owen’s admission, but lost multiple appeals to have him blocked. So John Lee, the chief executive, turned to Beijing. In December 2022, the Chinese government issued an interpretation of the national security law, which had been imposed on the city in June 2020 to quell months of pro-democracy protests. The interpretation stated that the courts needed approval from the chief executive to admit foreign lawyers in national security cases.

Although Owen had been admitted to represent Lai before the interpretation was issued, Hong Kong’s national security committee nonetheless instructed the immigration department to deny him a work permit.

“It’s pretty well unheard of for somebody who is entitled to represent a client not to receive a work permit,” says Jonathan Sumption, a former supreme court judge who quit the CFA last year, warning that the rule of law was “profoundly compromised” in Hong Kong. “I think it tells us quite a lot about the view of the rule of law taken by the executive”. Sumption said that blocking Owen via a visa refusal was “a subterfuge” on the part of the government.

But the issue at the heart of Lai’s appeal was not the visa – but the fact decisions made by the national security committee cannot be legally challenged, a principle that has caused alarm in some legal circles.

Paul Harris SC, a former chairperson of the Hong Kong Bar Association, who fled the city in 2022 after being warned by the national security police that they were considering charging him with sedition, said that the principle “effectively gives the committee the powers of a police state”.

In case you haven’t seen it. Includes gloriously bad-taste reference to RFK Jnr at end…

…Not with a bang, but yacht tourism.

HKFP reports a Baptist U survey finding that low-income new Mainland immigrants in Hong Kong are earning less than they were in 2019…

It found that among those who were employed, 65 per cent earned a lower income last year compared with 2019. Their median income was 3 per cent below pre-pandemic levels, according to the report.

Meanwhile, among those who had lost their jobs in 2020, almost 60 per cent of them were still unemployed.

…Of those who found work after being unemployed in 2020, 15 per cent earned less than they did before.

Nothing on root causes. Are relatively new arrivals concentrated in those industries that never fully recovered from the impact of Covid? Are they particularly low-skilled? For context: Hong Kong’s unemployment rate is 3%.

From the SCMP – Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan is moving its local office to Singapore…

…as it reduces its exposure to the region amid a dearth of deals and persistent political risks.

“We have made the difficult decision to close our Hong Kong office and plan to wind down on-the-ground operations over the coming 18+ months,” the fund’s spokesman said in a statement on Thursday.

“As part of this change, certain Hong Kong-based employees will be offered the opportunity to transfer to Singapore. Unfortunately, others will leave the organisation and we’re working to support each of them.”

Ontario Teachers’ managed C$255.8 billion (US$178.5 billion) as of mid-2024, making it the world’s 20th largest by assets under management. It manages funds for 340,000 retired and working teachers and invests in more than 50 countries.

The decision to close the office follows its move to step back from China deals and the departure of top regional executives.

The fund said in January 2023 that it would pause future direct investments in private assets in China while continuing to invest through fund partners. China accounted for about 2 per cent of its portfolio, or C$5 billion. Geopolitical risk was a key factor for the decision to pull back.

Taiwan comes in 27th in the latest World Happiness Report – and number-one in Asia…

Taiwan finished ahead of Singapore, South Korea, and Japan on a list dominated by Scandinavian and European countries. Finland finished first for the eighth year in a row, followed by Denmark, Iceland, Sweden, and the Netherlands.

The three East Asian countries ranked closest to Taiwan were Singapore at No. 34, Vietnam at No. 46, and Thailand at No. 49, per Liberty Times … Afghanistan closed off the list of 147 countries and territories.

Countries were rated based on factors including social support, gross domestic product per capita, healthy life expectancy, freedom, generosity, perceptions of corruption, positive and negative emotions.

The list was published by the Wellbeing Research Center at the University of Oxford in cooperation with pollster Gallup and the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.

A Rhodium Group paper on how China boosts investment/exports and minimizes consumption/imports in ways that framers of the WTO never thought of. Essentially, a wide range of state support for domestic companies, such as cheap capital and inputs, subsidized infrastructure and discriminatory regulations. The executive summary will suffice for most people.

Wondering about how the CK Hutchison-Beijing problem will be resolved. Over the years, CKH has invested more and more internationally, and now less than 15% of the company’s revenues come from China/Hong Kong. Maybe in another couple of years, we’ll wake up one morning and find the whole conglomerate has discarded its last remaining asset here and disappeared, leaving a message taped to the old head office door asking that any mail be sent to a tiny plastic flower factory in Tsuen Wan for forwarding. So long and thanks for all the fat margins.

The Hong Kong government announces that the Legislative Council election will take place on December 7…

All candidates will have to undergo vetting for patriotism and acquire nominations from a 1,500-strong Election Committee, which itself will also appoint 40 lawmakers from its own ranks.

Only 20 LegCo seats will be voted for democratically by the public, while the remaining 30 spots will be occupied by legislators from functional constituencies, mostly specific to particular industries, trades, or professions.

Lee also said on Tuesday that the Election Committee has 90 vacancies – a separate vote will be held on September 7 to fill the posts.

Members of the Election Committee, elected in a “small circle” vote, are considered to be Beijing loyalists. As of 2024, there were about 8,600 registered voters for the Election Committee, consisting of the city’s businesses, professionals, and delegates to China’s legislature, among others.

After pre-screening and nomination, all candidates for all 90 seats will in practice be filled by candidates who are hand-picked. Judging by the last exercise in 2021, even the 20 ‘democratically’ elected seats will have no genuinely independent – let alone opposition – candidates, leaving voters with no real choice. And thus no incentive to actually turn out. In an effort to get voting numbers up, the government might offer free public transport rides on the day, and will definitely remind everyone that it is illegal to urge others to boycott the poll. But it won’t be like the old days when voters could choose among well-known popular (or unpopular) personalities on the ballot. Officials will be keeping their fingers crossed that they can get the turnout above 30%.

Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee joins the hand-wringing over CK Hutchison’s sale of ports…

There have been “extensive discussions in society about the issue,” which reflects “society’s concerns over the matter,” Lee said.

“The Hong Kong SAR government urges foreign governments to provide a fair and just environment for enterprises, including enterprises from Hong Kong,” he said.

“We oppose the abusive use of coercion, of bullying tactics in international economic and trade relations,” Lee said, adding that “any transaction must comply with legal and regulatory requirements.”

The story also makes AP, Reuters and the NY Times…

John Lee, the leader of Hong Kong, added his voice on Tuesday to escalating warnings from China, saying the transaction deserved “serious attention.”

…Shares in CK Hutchison, which is controlled by one of Hong Kong’s richest people, Li Ka-shing, fell nearly 3 percent on Tuesday after Mr. Lee’s comments…

…On Tuesday, Hong Kong’s Mr. Lee said that “any transaction must comply with the legal and regulatory requirements.” Speaking at a weekly press briefing, he said that the government would “handle it in accordance with the law and regulations.”

He did not elaborate, but legal experts said that, historically, mergers or acquisitions undertaken by Hong Kong companies and foreign ones have not had to seek the kind of regulatory approval Mr. Lee was potentially referring to.

It is not clear what, if anything, the Hong Kong authorities could do to stop the deal. By contrast, Chinese companies often must secure permission from the Ministry of Commerce, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and other regulators to sell assets or move money out of mainland China.

But the warnings have raised concerns among some in the financial community about the politicization of business in Hong Kong, a former British colony that was returned to Beijing in 1997 under the promise that it would operate with “a high degree of autonomy.” This pledge changed in 2020 when Beijing imposed a national security law on the city to quash pro-democracy protests.

While Mr. Lee’s government has repeatedly emphasized that Hong Kong remains an open place to do business and a global financial hub with laws separate from the rest of China, some critics have pointed out that its government is under pressure from Beijing.

Global Times wolf-warrior/scribe Hu Xijin also apparently weighs in on the subject, somewhere – not sure where. As does ex-CE CY Leung…

Leung Chun-ying, Vice Chairman of the CPPCC National Committee, published a post on social media on Monday, asking without naming anyone: “Do businessmen have a motherland?” Wen Wei Po reported on Tuesday.

Leung stated that some Hong Kong businessmen mistakenly believe in the notion that “business knows no borders” and assume that everything is purely business. However, businessmen without a motherland will only face bullying. He emphasized that businessmen should also prioritize their country.

He pointed out that American businessmen can only act in alignment with US interests and cannot do anything that goes against them. He concluded that this inherent relationship between American businessmen and their country applies equally to other nations, including the UK, Canada, and Singapore—”and China is no exception.”

Witness Donald Trump’s effusive welcome for the deal.

The WSJ offers a possible reason for the anguish over the affair…

Chinese leader Xi Jinping is angry about a Hong Kong company’s plan to sell Panama Canal ports to a U.S.-led group, in part because the company didn’t seek Beijing’s approval in advance, people familiar with the matter said.

The Xi leadership had originally planned to use the Panama port issue as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the Trump administration, according to people close to Beijing’s decision-making, only to see the rug pulled out from under it.

…Xi’s unhappiness suggests he, too, sees the canal that way and doesn’t like to be painted as the loser. His government republished a commentary last week describing the deal as a betrayal of the Chinese people.

…In Beijing, several Chinese authorities including the State Administration for Market Regulation and the Ministry of Commerce have been told to study the deal with the aim of reviewing what Beijing can do to hinder it, according to a person familiar with the matter. Bloomberg earlier reported the Beijing authorities’ review.

Despite Beijing’s unhappiness, it doesn’t have a simple way to halt the deal. The assets to be sold are all outside mainland China and Hong Kong, and the parties to the transaction have expressed confidence that it can be completed.

The deal puts Xi in a tricky position. On one hand, Beijing has had to make clear its anger over the Hong Kong company’s move, which came without advance notice, to protect Xi’s strongman image, the people close to decision-making said. On the other, they said, Beijing is aware that any significant effort to torpedo the deal risks escalating tensions with the Trump administration.

And further reduce confidence among Mainland, Hong Kong and overseas investors.

The round-up of wanted activists’ relatives continues with Tony Chung’s stepfather…

Chung’s stepfather was “taken away” on Tuesday morning by national security police, Ming Pao reported, citing sources.

The stepfather was taken in to “assist in the investigation” of Chung’s suspected offences of inciting secession and colluding with external forces to endanger national security, Sing Tao Daily reported, also citing sources.

There was Cheng Yu-tung GBM back in 2016, aged 91. Stanley Ho GBM GLM GBS GML OBE in 2020, at the age of 98. Lui Che Woo, GBM, GBS, MBE, JP in 2024, aged 95. And now Lee Shau-kee GBM, aged 97.

Unlike Bill Gates or Jack Ma, who made their fortunes through innovation, Hong Kong’s tycoons got mega-rich through good old honest rent-seeking: exploiting government-rigged markets in textiles, casinos or – most infamously – real estate, then buying up cash-cow monopolies in utilities, transport and distribution. Their role in provoking the popular discontent that came to a head in 2014-19 was immeasurable. ‘Fourth Uncle’ Lee’s Henderson Land focussed on the grottier end of nasty little overpriced apartments and owned the city’s town gas company. 

His finest/tackiest moment was perhaps grandly handing cash bonuses to all his employees to celebrate the birth of his unmarried son Peter’s three male babies, courtesy of a surrogate mother. The Standard adds that he was especially fond of the mother of his other son’s children…

Former actress Cathy Chui Chi-kei, married to Martin, was dubbed the “hundred billion daughter-in-law”.

In their 19 years of marriage, Chui gave birth to four children in eight years. Lee sent her gifts that totaled over a billion dollars.

The gifts included a mansion, a HK$50 million education fund, land worth HK$1.82 billion and a HK$110 million yacht.

Li Ka-shing GBM KBE JP, aged 96 years 8 months, is too busy trying to sell off his ports right now.

From Weatherzone – how the recent cold weather in Hong Kong will lead to ‘monsoonal’ rain in Indonesia and even Australia…

This surge of cold air originated from deep over the Tibetan plateau, where very cold and dry air during the boreal winter descends into a dominant high pressure system. These cold and dry winds expand east and south into Japan and China, becoming the northeast monsoon as they travel into the South China Sea, picking up moisture over the increasingly warm oceans. 

So (if I understand this correctly) it’s the opposite to what happens during our summer, when the air picks up moisture in the Western Pacific and South China Sea before dumping it here. Except right now, Oz somehow gets dragged into it. Something called the Madden-Julian Oscillation.

Maybe Hong Kong officials should read this HKFP piece on Mainlanders who apply for talent visas to come to the city – but don’t come…

“Ultimately, does it make any difference between going to Hong Kong and staying in mainland China?” asked Lindsey in Mandarin. “For topics we can’t talk about in China, can you say it in Hong Kong now? You can’t.”

Lindsey, who is living in Singapore on an employment visa after setting up her own company, is not interested in going to Hong Kong. “My TTPS visa should expire early next year, but I am not planning to extend it,” she told HKFP.

…[Emma] decided to apply for a TTPS visa because she believed she would easily fulfil the criteria. After all, she graduated with a bachelor’s degree from a top university in mainland China and a master’s degree from a university in Hong Kong.

“It’s like stockpiling food before the end of the world, ” she said. “And Hong Kong is the easiest to add to the pile.”

She told HKFP that at least six of her friends also got TTPS visas, “but none of them actually went to Hong Kong or tried to look for a job there.”

In case you missed it, plus later developments…

A Ta Kung Pao commentary accuses CK Hutchison of ‘betraying the Chinese people’ by selling off its Panama and other non-China/HK ports to Blackrock. It is posted on the HK and Macau Affairs Office’s website, which suggests that it is endorsed by Beijing (as if being a Ta Kung Pao column isn’t enough).

The author’s main concern is that trade facilities should be neutral and that US ownership of these ports could be weaponized against China, for example by charging PRC vessels higher docking fees. But he also implies that the sale represents some sort of deeper loss for China beyond reliable trade infrastructure around the world. Could it be its own ability to weaponize port ownership? That was something that worried Western commentators when Cosco bought Piraeus in Greece.

Unlike Cosco, CK Hutchison is not state-controlled. Li Ka-shing has long performed the usual kowtowing rituals, but he has been investing less in China/HK and more in Europe and elsewhere for quite a few years now (as some patriotic commentators have noticed). As Bloomberg points out…

While Beijing could strike back at other parts of his empire, the billionaire has been lowering his group’s exposure to Greater China for decades now, a strategy that will help limit the impact of any political fallout arising from the Trump-endorsed deal. Only 12% of CK Hutchison’s revenue comes from operations in the mainland and Hong Kong, with Europe, North America and Australia making up the bulk of the rest.

…Whether China takes any further action against CK Hutchison will be a test case for how far Beijing is willing to go to rebuke companies caught in the middle of increasingly fraught US-China relations.

The SCMP says…

…experts warned on Friday that Hutchison, part of Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing’s empire, was now caught in a dilemma and might end up being punished by both the United States and China no matter how it acted.

If it backed out of the deal, it could be seen as caving in to Beijing’s pressure and prompt punitive actions from the US. But if it went ahead, Li’s business empire might face political repercussions and be labelled unpatriotic even if it sought to show its loyalty by investing in mainland Chinese ports.

…“It’s obvious that Beijing is using an indirect way to express its discontent about the planned deal and hopes Li can mend things by turning the deal in Beijing’s favour,” said Lau Siu-kai, a consultant with the semi-official Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies think tank.

“The planned deal is set to undermine the development of the nation’s Belt and Road Initiative and hit China’s maritime and shipbuilding industries as the US will wrest control of many overseas ports, which may drastically raise tax on Chinese vessels.”

If Beijing were to pressure the company into cancelling the Blackrock deal (assuming that’s even contractually possible), it could confirm US fears that Chinese control of ports is a risk. It would also raise serious questions for many Hong Kong companies about whether they are expected to put patriotism before profits, and indeed whether they are de facto state-run entities. (From a purely business point of view, selling the ports might be a smart move anyway at a time when the world is possibly entering a more protectionist trade climate. The deal fell into place with amazing speed.) Already, local officials feel a need to assure Hong Kong tycoons that it is not compulsory for them to invest in the Northern Metropolis project.

Now come signs of backtracking. A second TKP column posted on the HKMAO website is more measured in tone, looking back fondly at old capitalist patriots like Henry Fok and YK Pao. And Starry Lee says Hong Kong firms should focus on ‘win-win’ deals that benefit the motherland and the business. 

Beijing does not seem to be upset in any way with Blackrock. Boss Stephen Schwarzman is on the invitation list of global business leaders to Xi Jinping’s latest China Development Forum in a couple of weeks.  (Update: he’s from Blackstone. Still…)

It’s quite possible that CK Hutchison did in fact clear the deal with Beijing. One analyst calls the first TKP piece ‘face-saving bluster … to be expected’. 

In Lingua Sinica, Ryan Ho Kilpatrick looks at Sino United Publishing…

Go book-shopping in Hong Kong and you may be surprised by the range of stores to choose from. Three local chains — JP Books (三聯書店), The Commercial Press (商務印書館), and Chung Hwa Book Co. (中華書局) — run up to a dozen locations each. Not bad for a city where book publishers and sellers are reeling from political controls and where only around 14 percent of residents, less than half the international average, say they like reading “very much.”

But all these are different faces of the same media empire: Sino United Publishing (聯合出版), or SUP. It is an empire that single-handedly controls over 80 percent of the local publishing market and runs over 50 retail stores territory-wide — a virtual monopoly. It is also an empire within an empire, owned and operated by the Liaison Office of the Central People’s Government (LOCPG), which is long rumored to run the Special Administrative Region from the shadows.

Lucy Hornby on China’s first lady. Not to be confused with Joan Baez…

Of course, Peng Liyuan is not just a First Lady. Long before most people in China had heard of Xi, they knew about her. In the 1980s and 1990s, she was one of China’s most popular performers. Western writers tend to describe her as a “folk singer” which gives the entirely misleading impression that she was something like a Chinese Joan Baez. In fact, she was a military soprano, belting out nationalistic hymns to concert halls packed with uniformed officers. For years, she reached a national audience during CCTV’s Lunar New Year gala. This is not a style of music that I myself enjoy, but in China, military singers are undeniably popular. Her album sales made her independently wealthy by the 1990s.

…Despite her obvious achievements, Peng Liyuan’s main propaganda role is as a model of wifely subservience. Back in the 1990s, she gave gushy interviews about Xi being the boss in the relationship, throwing in coy details about her own housekeeping.

Former Guardian correspondent John Gittings’ photos taken in China from 1978-2003. Commentary here. 

For history geeks, an academic paper from the Journal of the History of International Law: The Gentle Civilizer of the Far East – A Re-Examination of the Encounter between ‘China’ and ‘International Law’.

Opening today – I will be seeing it tomorrow: The Solitary Gourmet…

Chart from Joel Chan – the six bars show median monthly household income for 4Q 2019-2024. After a post-Covid recovery from HK$26,500 in 2020 to HK$30,000 in 2023, it has dropped 1.3% to HK$29,600 in 2024. Why? Maybe it reflects migration patterns – higher-earning locals/expats leaving and lower-income Mainlanders coming in. Another factor could be the slump in the property market: if all the tens of thousands of real-estate agents in town see a big enough fall in commissions, it would show up in these stats. In due course, a civil-service pay cut would probably have an even bigger impact.

A survey by Ronny Tong’s Path of Democracy ‘think tank’ shows that 48% of Hongkongers are dissatisfied with the performance of the all-patriots Legislative Council…

Tong … said during a press conference on Wednesday that the high level of dissatisfaction could be attributed to the public perception that some lawmakers lacked “insights” and showed a passive attitude when scrutinising bills.

“People thought that many lawmakers made speeches only to flatter [Beijing] and that they seldom expressed their own insights,” Tong told reporters in Cantonese. “They were also seen as somewhat unfamiliar with or being passive in vetting bills.”

What do the other 52% feel? Maybe they have forgotten LegCo still exists.

NPC and CPPCC members also recently voiced concerns about the quality of lawmakers…

“Some lawmakers, especially newcomers, simply repeat leaders’ speeches or policies without offering innovation or practical suggestions,” one representative was quoted as saying.

Others reportedly expressed concerns about certain lawmakers prioritizing social media visibility over substantive contributions, describing their efforts as “attention-grabbing but shallow.”

The discussions also highlighted the need for fresh talent in the legislature as some suggested reducing the number of lawmakers from the current 90, arguing that the political landscape has shifted, leaving fewer opportunities for new lawmakers to shine.

“If you ask the public, how many can name even three new lawmakers? This shows the system needs re-evaluation,” a CPPCC member reportedly said. 

Did we ever find out why, when LegCo became pretty much all-patriot and pre-approved/appointed, the number of seats rose to 90? Of course, if they cut the number of highly paid members, that would reduce median household income a bit more.

AP on the conviction of Jackie Chen…

A social worker who tried to mediate during the height of the 2019 anti-government protests in Hong Kong was convicted of rioting Tuesday in the latest case that signaled the tough stance the authorities have taken toward political cases.

Jackie Chen was part of a group of social workers who often carried a loudspeaker seeking to mediate between police and protesters during the social unrest. She was freed at her first trial in September 2020, but the secretary of justice appealed and a court ordered a retrial by another judge.

(As HKFP – linked below – says: ‘…Chen was acquitted midway through her trial in September 2020, when the judge said her conduct and speech did not amount to taking part in an unlawful assembly, let alone a riot.’)

In the retrial, the prosecution accused Chen, who used a loudspeaker to ask police officers to calm down and not to use their guns to fire non-lethal bullets, of participating in a riot during a protest in August 2019. Chen pleaded not guilty.

Judge May Chung wrote in her verdict that Chen had continuously shouted unfounded accusations against the police and suggested the officers’ actions involved the use of excessive force or were too rapid. Chen had used her social worker role, claiming to be “safeguarding justice,” to back the protesters, the judge said.

Chung ruled that the only reasonable inference was that Chen intended to participate in the riot.

Can anyone possibly think of more than one reasonable inference from these facts? Can anyone think of ones that are perhaps more reasonable?

From the HKFP story…

Deputy District Judge May Chung announced the guilty verdict on Tuesday afternoon, seconds after taking her seat at the bench. She said she had written down her reasons for the verdict and would adjourn the hearing for 20 to 30 minutes to allow the defence and the prosecution to read them.

Chen’s supporters in the public gallery yelled: “We’ll come visit you” and “Hang in there,” as the social worker took off her earrings, rings, bracelet, and necklace and handed them to a relative through a gap in the defendant’s dock.

Chen, 48, looked up to the public gallery and said, “[I’m] OK! Don’t worry. Take care of yourselves!”

Her family members, seated in the first row of the public gallery, were seen comforting each other.

Security Secretary Chris Tang lashes out at a Ming Pao reporter for asking why a recent trip to Thailand was not announced ahead of time. The answer to the question was perfectly reasonable…

The security minister said the operation [to help Hong Kong residents who had been held at a scam farm in Burma] had to be conducted discreetly, and if not, it could jeopardise the rescue effort and endanger the lives of the detained Hongkongers.

He could have left it at that. It was a response that eloquently highlighted the seriousness of the situation and the determination of the government to help residents in distress overseas – and its success in doing so. But instead he…

…accused [the] reporter of attempting to undermine the credibility of the government…

So now that’s the story.

Brian Kern looks back at Hong Kong’s riot trials, which finally seem to have run their course (maybe). Lots of interesting points on the use of the law, individuals’ experiences, the Yuen Long ‘riot’, plus photos and more…

…even though people convicted of riot represent the largest proportion of political prisoners, and riot convictions carry some of the longest prison sentences of any of those that political prisoners have received, this phenomenon of hundreds of imprisonments for riot has gotten relatively little attention.

Why is that? I suspect it’s because lots of observers don’t know quite what to make of it. If you hear that 45 pro-democracy leaders have been convicted of “conspiracy to subvert state power” for taking part in a primary election, that sounds absurd on the face of it, and the “crime” is explicitly political. But “riot”—isn’t rioting bad? isn’t it violent? How can it be justified?

…The vast majority of political prisoners in Hong Kong have been convicted of crimes which on the face of it are not political, like “riot,” but this is done as part of a major political crackdown and to enforce the government’s narrative of the protests, that they were strictly a “law and order” issue, as opposed to what they really were: a political conflict over how Hong Kong was to be governed, between two irreconcilable visions of the kind of place Hong Kong was to be. If you refuse to face this aspect of the crackdown—the weaponization of the justice system to crush political opponents—then you’re missing a very big part of it.

…Interestingly, when the Hong Kong government first started charging large numbers of people with “riot” in 2019 and 2020, it was not very successful: out of its first 25 prosecutions, only six people were convicted. This could not stand. CCP-owned media conducted a propaganda campaign intended to intimidate judges. The Hong Kong government appealed to the Court of Appeal, which agreed with it, ruling on March 25, 2021 that while merely being present at a riot does not in itself render a defendant liable, “actively promoting or encouraging” does. In other words, the court was specifying what “taking part” constituted and was essentially saying that one needn’t take any particular aggressive action to be ruled to have “taken part” in the riot.